After a gap of eight years, Republicans appear set to reclaim the United States Senate even while retaining their decisive control of the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s US Congressional elections.
Several polls are suggesting that it’s advantage Republicans, although some of them have entered the caveat that the races are tightening and much will depend on the still-undecided voters and the level of turnout.‘Upshot’, a New York Times blog devoted to election-forecasting, says the Republicans have a 70 per cent chance of gaining control of the Senate.
A Republican majority in both chambers will only add to the woes of President Barack Obama in his final two years at the White House, making it exceptionally hard to push his key legislative agenda.Since the Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives in 2010, Obama has been finding the going tough on Capitol Hill, with the gridlock on his push for immigration overhaul a case in point. A loss of the Senate now would prove to be a double whammy for him.
Up for the grabs on Tuesday are 36 of the 100 Senate seats, and all 435 seats in the House. In the outgoing House, Republicans have 233 seats and the Democrats 199, with three seats being vacant. In the Senate, Democrats have 53 seats and the Republicans 45. And there are two Independents, who usually caucus with Democrats.
On the face of it, Obama and his party should have been helped by the US economic recovery that has gathered pace in recent times. The GDP is projected to have increased at an annualised rate of 3.5 per cent in the third quarter. A good deal of job creation has taken place, yet the levels of unemployment, underemployment and stagnant wages are regarded as worrisome for the Democrats.
Obama’s own declining approval ratings are a cause for concern. So much so that several Democrats locked in tight races did not want him to come over for campaigning. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll says “a record low of 44 per cent of Americans report a favorable impression of him”.
On top of all this is the ground reality that midterm polls go against a sitting president’s party. “Midterm losses are the norm for the president’s party”, says Thomas Mann, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Save for a few exceptions, such as the boost that Republicans got in 2002 in the aftermath of 9/11 and President George W Bush’s Afghan operation to go after the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
Some of the pollsters and media outlets are hedging their bets, though. As CNN put it on Sunday, the best that the Republicans can hope for is “a slim majority”, noting that some critical Senate race are tightening and are too close to call.
Republicans need a net gain of six seats to capture the Senate. The close Senate races include Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire, Alaska, Arkansas and louisiana. Two of the seats — louisiana and Georgia — could possibly see a runoff election in December. In the House contests, Republicans are widely expected to reinforce their majority by winning an additional six to 12 seats.