A new report by the US Congressional Research Service has highlighted concerns voiced by experts that Pakistan’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal on the grounds of dissuading India from taking any military action against it could actually end up increasing the risk of a nuclear conflict.
“Islamabad’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal, development of new types of nuclear weapons, and adoption of a doctrine called “full spectrum deterrence” have led some observers to express concern about an increased risk of nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India, which also continues to expand its nuclear arsenal,” says the CRS report, prepared for members of Congress.
Noting that Pakistan probably has 110-130 nuclear warheads, perhaps more, the 28-page report also casts doubts on the Pakistani assertions about their safety by pointing to the continued instability in the country.
Although Pakistan says it has taken several steps to increase international confidence over its arsenal following the alarming 2004 revelations about the proliferation of nuclear material and technology by disgraced nuclear scientist AQ Khan, the CRS says the instability in the country raises questions on the extent and durability of these reforms.
“Some observers fear radical takeover of the Pakistani government or diversion of material or technology by personnel within Pakistan’s nuclear complex,” it says, stressing: “While US and Pakistani officials continue to express confidence in controls over Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, continued instability in the country could impact these safeguards.”
Stating that Islamabad is producing fissile material, adding to related production facilities, deploying additional nuclear weapons and new types of delivery vehicles, the report goes on to say that “continued Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapons development could jeopardize strategic stability between the two countries”.
Discussing US action to deal with nuclear safety in Pakistan, the report points to the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act of 2009, which requires that the US President has to certify that Pakistan is “continuing to cooperate with the United States in efforts to dismantle supplier networks relating to the acquisition of nuclear weapons-related materials, such as providing relevant information from or direct access to Pakistani nationals associated with such networks”.