Researchers have developed a model to identify behavioural patterns among online groups of ISIS supporters that could provide cyber police and anti-terror watchdogs a roadmap to their activities and help predict terror attacks.
Researchers from University of Miami in the US identified and analysed second-by-second online records of 196 pro-ISIS groups operating during the first eight months of 2015.
They found that even though most of the 108,000-plus individual members of these self-organised groups probably never met, they had a striking ability to adapt and extend their online longevity, increase their size and number, reincarnate when shut down — and inspire “lone wolves” with no history of extremism to carry out horrific attacks.
“It was like watching crystals forming. We were able to see how people were materialising around certain social groups; they were discussing and sharing information — all in real-time,” said Neil Johnson from University of Miami. Generalising a mathematical equation commonly used in physics and chemistry to the development and growth of ad hoc pro-ISIS groups, researchers witnessed the daily interactions that drove online support for these groups, or “aggregates,” and how they came together and multiplied prior to the onset of real-world campaigns.
Researchers suggest that by concentrating just on these relatively few groups of serious followers — those that discuss operational details like routes for financing and avoiding drone strikes — cyber police and other anti-terrorist watchdogs could monitor their buildup and transitions and thwart the potential onset of a burst of violence.