Next 2 decades to be volatile with no single superpower: US intel forecast

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In the international system, no single state is likely to be positioned to dominate across all regions or domains, and a broader range of actors will compete to advance their ideologies, goals and interests.

The forecast has been published in the seventh edition of the US National Intelligence Council's Global Trends report.

The document, published every four years since 1997, assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the US during the next two decades.

In the next 20 years, the intensity of competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War, the US Intelligence Council has forewarned.

"Countries and other actors are likely to compete over food, mineral, water, and energy sources made more accessible, more valuable, or scarcer," the report said.

Expanding technological, network, and information power will complement more traditional military, economic, and soft power aspects in the international system. These power elements, which will be more accessible to a broader range of actors, are likely to be concentrated among leaders that develop these technologies.

The US Intelligence Council claimed that these power dynamics are likely to produce a more volatile and confrontational geopolitical environment, reshape multilateralism, and widen the gap between transnational challenges and cooperative arrangements to address them. Rival powers will jockey to shape global norms, rules, and institutions.

The US, along with its longstanding allies, and China will have the greatest influence on global dynamics, supporting competing visions of the international system and governance that reflect their core interests and ideologies, the report said. Their rivalry will affect most domains, straining and in some cases reshaping existing alliances and international organisations that have underpinned the international order for decades.          

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