The voices of Israel's Palestinian citizens are often drowned out or delegitimised in the country's noisy politics. Yet in the upcoming parliament election, they could hold the key to breaking an entrenched political deadlock.
Israelis vote Tuesday for the fifth time in under four years. The country remains divided over former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's fitness to serve while on trial for corruption. Polls show those numbers have barely budged
What could tip the scales is the vote of one-fifth of Israelis who are of Palestinian descent, with family ties in adjacent territories Israel captured in 1967.
Turnout among these voters will be key: High numbers could swing the election in favor of Netanyahu's opponents, while a drop could pave the way for Netanyahu's return.
“I can hardly remember a single election campaign that all depended on the vote of Arab citizens,” said Arik Rudnitzky, who studies Arab voting patterns at the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank.
Most polls predict a historically low turnout among Arab voters, even though the outgoing coalition government included an Arab party, a first in Israel's history.
That first-time participation in government hasn't generated much excitement among voters disillusioned by rampant crime, the rising cost of living and a loss of hope for change from within a slow-moving political system.
This could be a boon for Netanyahu, who in his lengthy political career has both played on ethnic tensions to drum up support for his nationalist Likud party and sought support from the same Arab voters he derided to bolster his party's chances.
Arab parties might win as few as eight seats in the 120-member parliament, down from a high of 15 in 2020, polls have suggested. If the polls are correct, Netanyahu could be in charge of a hard-line government that includes extremists who call Arab lawmakers “terrorists” and want to deport them.
Sensing the urgency, Arab lawmakers are making a last-minute effort to rally their supporters. Signs around Arab areas implore residents to vote.
“People have lost hope,” said Sami Abu Shehadeh, head of the nationalist Balad party. “We tell them that voting for Balad now, it's not another vote." Instead, he said, it “can change the whole political map.”
In the arithmetic that transforms ballots into parliamentary seats, lower Arab turnout could hobble the current coalition's chances to return to power, or else grant the Netanyahu camp more seats.
“The only thing that is ambiguous in this whole story is the Arabs, and therefore they are the only thing that this time can decide the elections, for better or worse,” said Mohammad Magadli, a political analyst with the Arabic language Nas Radio and Israeli Channel 12 TV.
If a coalition doesn't coalesce, Israel could head toward a sixth vote.
Since the political crisis began in 2019, Netanyahu has struggled to form a viable government. Israel's fragmented politics require coalition building to govern and former allies have refused to sit under him as long as he is battling corruption charges. Arab parties have historically been shunned by or refused to join Israeli governments. But that tradition was shattered last year when a small Arab Islamist party joined the coalition formed by Prime Minister Yair Lapid, sending Netanyahu packing after 12 years in office.