As the United States and NATO forces push ahead with their Afghan pullout by the end of this year, a new report has warned of a sharp deterioration of the overall situation with the Taliban insurgency escalating to the point of threatening the country’s stability.
The report from the federally-funded Centre for Naval Analyses also speaks of the distinct possibility of Pakistani proxy forces stepping up attacks on Indian installations in Afghanistan.
The withdrawal by international forces, and the plans to shrink the size of Afghanistan National Security Force, could set the stage for a Taliban resurgence and turn the country yet again to become a safe haven for extremists, the study mandated by the US Congress indicates.
“History suggests that the Taliban will use sanctuaries in Pakistan to regenerate their capabilities as military pressure on the movement declines,” the report notes and goes on to say that Pakistan “may seek to influence the dynamics of the Taliban’s campaign against the ANSF post-2014”.
The report also foresees an exacerbation of existing tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The section dealing with India notes that New Delhi will seek to stabilise the Afghan government by maintaining its investment and bilateral ties.
“India may send a limited number of security forces to Afghanistan to secure its installations, which will likely come under increased attacks from Pakistani proxy forces,” the report notes, adding: “It is unlikely that India will deploy security forces to help stabilise the Afghan government, for fear of being drawn into the conflict or risking another war with Pakistan.”
“India will, to the extent possible, increase its efforts to strengthen Afghan ministries and train ANA (Afghan National Army) officers in India. If India perceives the Taliban as regaining the initiative against the government, it may provide support to former leaders of the Northern Alliance and help them to rearm. India and Iran are likely to share common interests in these areas,” it said.
Dealing with Pakistan’s approach, the report says: “We expect that the Pakistani military will remain focused on containing the fallout from Afghanistan inside Pakistan. It will fight militants that insist on attacking the Pakistani state, while pushing as many as possible into Afghanistan to fight with Afghan insurgents.” “It is not likely that Pakistan will take further military action against the Haqqani network in North Waziristan. Pakistan will maintain its relations with the Haqqani network and will lean on the group to carry out operations specific to Pakistani interests — in particular, attacks on Indian targets,” it said.
The report goes on to say that Pakistan will seek to pressure the Afghan government through the Haqqani network, and may press for an increase in attacks inside Kabul.