President Donald Trump’s decision to opt out of the Paris Climate Change agreement on the ground that it is unfair on the United States was entirely in line with his election pledge. It has occasioned outrage in diplomatic circles for two reasons. First, because it is assumed that internal politics, including election pledges, should have no bearing on multilateral agreements. Secondly, there is consternation that by distancing the US from a global role, Trump is leaving the field wide open for China to fill the void. And, despite the undeniable admiration of China’s dramatic rise as an economic and military superpower, the democratic world continues to view Beijing with a large measure of suspicion. A US-led world order has its many imperfections but a China-led world does not inspire confidence, not least in India.
Of course, there is a belief that the world should not overreact to Trump and simply hold its breath, hoping that like the proverbial bad smell, the problem will soon disappear. Certainly, many US strategic pundits have been criss-crossing the world telling global leaders that it is extremely unlikely that Trump will even last his four-year presidential term. The Old Establishment, which includes both Republicans and Democrats, seem determined to trap Trump for some indiscretion — whether on his Russian links or something similar — and show him the door. If those moves succeed — as they well could, the argument goes, the US will revert to its normal position.
For India, the prevailing situation poses a challenge. New Delhi is in no position to either anticipate or influence internal developments in the US. As things stand, India’s links with the Trump set-up are very feeble and the White House doesn’t appear to have put India in its global radar. The President, on his part, seems to still harbour archaic notions of India as an impoverished country that dirties the earth and then demands compensation by guilt tripping the developed world. Of course, as happened with both China and Saudi Arabia, Trump’s perceptions are negotiable. If, for example, during his forthcoming visit to the White House, Prime Minister Narendra Modi writes out a big order for US weaponry, Trump may change his tune and praise India as a beacon of civility in a turbulent neighbourhood.
Whether the Trump Administration is charmed by India or regards it as another Third World nuisance out to export its people to the US will be interesting to observe. However, as of now, the vagaries of the weather inside the White House shouldn’t become the basis of foreign policy calculations. Having expended a disproportionate amount of time and energy courting Washington — if only as a corrective to foreign policy prior to the end of the Cold War — it is time India begins to take some tentative moves to firm up a set of alternative alliances.
Prime Minister Modi has spent the past few days in Europe and touched base in three of the four European capitals that matter: Berlin, Paris and Moscow. Of these, the Berlin visit is particularly important since, for all practical purpose, it is Germany that calls the shots in the European Union. France is important, but only as a supplement to Germany. It is still too riddled by internal cracks, not least of which is a charismatic President who, unfortunately, has limited political authority. And Moscow is an alternative power centre with a footprint that is greater in Asia than in Europe.
The problem is that China has already been there before. There may be initial scepticism in Europe of the real meaning of the One Belt One Road initiative of Beijing. However, Chinese policy is remarkably flexible and decision-making happens at lightning speed — thanks to its authoritarian political system. Hence, following the growing misgivings over the US in Europe, we are likely to see China deepen its economic engagement with the EU and even offer German and French companies a stake in OBOR.
Compared to China, India’s outward reach has been a bit too hesitant. Apart from Japan, India’s has not really succeeded in crafting deep relations with the world’s strong economies. This needs to change. Prime Minister Modi did signal a revival of the India-EU free trade talks after his discussions in Germany but a sense of urgency needs to be introduced into our economic diplomacy. There is also the post-Brexit talks with the United Kingdom that also needs a political prod.
In a world that is in flux and where global equations are being reworked, perhaps faster than most people anticipated, it is important that India readies itself for the new challenges. For a start, it is imperative that foreign policy is put back on the domestic agenda. India must be clear in its own mind about the degree of openness to world trade and how to leverage our growing economy for larger ends. This includes national security. Modi has so far sensitised the world to India’s new energy. What is now needed is a sense of direction that has the widest endorsement of all stakeholders at home.