What began as the pipedream of a few people determined to rid India of a venal Government and harness national energies to the full has now reached epidemic proportions. It is still nearly six months to the general election, the occasion for a verdict on the past and the future, but already the word ‘change’ is in the air. We glimpsed it on Saturday afternoon in Kanpur, just as we had glimpsed it in Rewari, Jaipur and the Japanese Garden of Delhi in September. Regardless of the initial scepticism of the pundits, the appeal of Narendra Modi is resonating all over India — even in places where a BJP flag has never been sighted.
It would hardly be an exaggeration to suggest that India is mentally tuning itself to a Central Government led by the Man from Gujarat. The anointment may well be grossly premature because the campaign has not even begun in right earnest and because there is still time for the BJP to score damaging self-goals. However, even the many miles still uncovered have not prevented people and particularly intellectuals from contemplating the change that India deserves after a prolonged spell of damaging governance.
At one time it was being said that the thinkers and the intellectuals would resist the rise of Modi to the last man. After all, the Congress had taken exceptional care to cast Modi in the image of a communal butcher and a narrow-minded bigot. It is not that these misconceptions have been wiped out entirely. There remain formidable pockets of resistance, particularly among that section which equates the interests of the country with one party and one family. However, nothing succeeds like succeeds, and the sight of large, ecstatic crowds at Modi’s public meetings—all which are telecast because they give channels high viewership ratings—has persuaded a significant section of the ‘policy establishment’ in Delhi to take another look at Modi and his record in Gujarat.
To the cynical this may appear to be rats deserting a very leaky UPA ship. This is partly true. With Coalgate resurfacing and fingers being pointed directly at the Prime Minister for his alleged indulgence of cronyism, there is now a perception that the Government is living out its final days in ICU. Attention is naturally focussed on the Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi. In the event the Congress loses all the four battles and is seen to have performed badly, it is almost certain that India will have a non-functioning, lame-duck Government by the late afternoon of December 8.
However, the more charitable explanation is that a significant section of India’s intelligentsia are now willing to give Modi a fair chance and, perhaps, even contribute to the campaign intellectually. Modi started off with the tag of an outsider but over the past month he has gained so much ground that a section of the Establishment is now willing to sup with him. I can give details to back my assertion but it is prudent to not drag individuals who are acting in their personal capacities gratuitously into the limelight.
The main issue that Modi will have to confront in the coming weeks, and particularly after the Assembly elections, is the extent to which he casts himself as either an agent of change or, alternatively, a muscular voice of protest. The two are not mutually exclusive and an expression of exasperation with present day India must necessarily precede any elaboration of the alternative. For the moment Modi is fine talking in generalities: “India First”, “bringing people together” and “Constitution is by holy book”. However, sooner or later, as the contest intensifies and as the Congress unleashes its thousand-crore publicity blitz, Modi will be confronted by the question: what are his priorities and what is his agenda for changeIJ
It is unlikely that the BJP manifesto will be very useful in answering these legitimate queries. A manifesto is normally drawn up by conservative apparatchiks who specialise in collating different voices without identifying priorities and practicalities. In a manifesto, the promise to abolish Article 370 is put on par with fiscal responsibility in the running of the Government. In short, something called ‘ideology’ is clumsily merged with the agenda of governance.
This could be a reason why Modi’s campaign has to chart a slightly different course from that of the BJP. For those who turned up so enthusiastically in Kanpur and elsewhere, the BJP was incidental. Their support was for Modi. Such a distinction may not be taken very kindly by a party which has often prided the importance it has accorded to corporate identity over individuals. In a sense Modi too may share this Communist-like deification of the “party”. However, for most Indians, Modi’s appeal is detached from the attractions or non-attractions of the BJP. In presenting a vision to the people of India, Modi may quite legitimately concentrate on his approach rather than go into exacting details of policy initiatives. But he has to demonstrate that he stands both with his party and above it.
The BJP chose Modi as its PM candidate because he had an appeal that surpassed that of the party. To maximise this incremental support Modi has to carve out a distinct appeal to the voters. This may not be in conflict with that of his party, but it has to have an extra distinctiveness. Increasingly, Modi is being seen as a new national consensus.