India’s metereological department may well have a mixed record of accurately forecasting the weather. However, when it comes to identifying changing political patterns, the well-entrenched Establishment of the National Capital is usually on the ball. The past few weeks have witnessed a remarkable churning that would have been unimaginable in 2012.
The Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi who had, at best, been viewed as an effective State leader who enjoyed niche support in the social media but who — or so the consensus went — was far too “rigid” and “polarising” a figure to make it to the national change, has suddenly undergone a perceptional transformation. Today, the movers and shakers are suddenly beginning to see his possible virtues and, more important, look for possible connections to him. It is not that they have joined those in the BJP and outside who have anointed him the Prime Minister-in-waiting. The Establishment is still too cautious to undertake futures trading. However, they are examining every one of Modi’s moves and probing areas of strength and vulnerability.
I was particularly struck by the overall adverse reaction to the cancellation of Modi’s long-distance keynote address to a conference on India organised by the Wharton Business School. Even those who are neutral on the Modi question felt that Wharton was guilty of grave discourtesy and there were murmurs about American busy bodies trying to influence the course of Indian politics. Overall, I would say that Modi gained considerable sympathy and that there was dissatisfaction over External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid’s sly endorsement of this show of liberal intolerance.
What the Wharton incident revealed, of course, is that there are people who will persist in projecting Modi as a pariah regardless of what India thinks of him. But there are others who will be a little more subtle in ensuring that an outsider from the provinces does not come to dominate the Centre. Since the BJP National Council meeting, much has been made of the fact that the party patriarch chose to compare Sushma Swaraj to Vajpayee. Commentators with very little sympathy for the BJP have suddenly discovered hidden virtues in both Advani and even the RSS. “Advani is still the man to watch out for” is often the prognosis of those who are unsettled by the prospect of a pugnacious, inspirational, OBC leader arriving in Delhi to take over the reins of power.
The resurrection of Advani by the commentariat has the sly approval of a section of the BJP that have a Modi allergy. However, every karyakarta in the party knows that while Advani is a figure of respect, projecting him as a possible leader of the BJP will invite ridicule from the electorate. Advani’s contribution to the growth of the BJP is unmatched. Yet, it is a cruel fact that his stature within the political class isn’t matched by a corresponding enthusiasm for his prime ministerial ambitions — unless, of course, for some bizarre reason the BJP is determined to spend another few years in the Opposition benches.
Even the Congress, which had once assumed that Modi’s rise to national prominence would guarantee a third term for the UPA, is increasingly getting nervous about the man from Gujarat. Rahul Gandhi’s ‘informal’ chat with the media about marriage, politics and his own ambitions may well have had a note of utmost sincerity attached to it. But coming so soon after his ‘coronation speech’ at the AICC session in Jaipur two months — when his oratory was compared to President Obama’s — it has thrown the Congress into a tizzy.
The ruling party knows that it will approach 2014 with the burden of anti-incumbency, especially if the economy continues to plod along at the 5% growth level. It had hoped to offset some of that disadvantage by projecting a Rahul who believed in a ‘new’ politics and could relate to younger voters. The question now being asked is couched in worry: if Rahul is sending such contradictory and even defeatist messages, how will the Congress workers muster the enthusiasm for a battle against Modi next yearIJ And, if the party is listless, how will it attract new partnersIJ Is 2014 going to be a defensive battle to salvage whatever it can for a future dayIJ
The Congress’ best hope lies in the BJP scoring a series of self-goals and maybe, just maybe, Nitish Kumar walking out of the NDA in disgust over the projection of Modi. Nothing is impossible in politics but it is always erroneous to assume that only one side has a monopoly of cleverness. Modi’s detractors are certainly active in hoping that he can be checkmated by the party apparatchiks. But they forget that Modi too has a few reserve cards up his sleeve — some for flashing at his party colleagues and some for the battle in 2014. Most significantly, a cocooned group of apparatchiks are never able to guage the intensity and destructive powers of a groundswell from below. Two years ago, Mamata Banerjee overthrew the most well-entrenched and well-oiled political machine created in post-Independent India by the CPI(M) in West Bengal. She did it purely by nurturing a revolt from below.
It is still too early to identify all the forces that will come into play in 2014. The next 12 months could even see the UPA organise a spirited fightback using freebies and handouts. But the risk of over-interpretation, I will not be surprised if we are witnessing the definite beginnings of a Modi wave whose reach extends far beyond the traditional bastions of the BJP. If the momentum persists, we are likely to see an accretion in the strength of the NDA. Smaller parties invoke ‘secularism’ when the going is against the BJP; they re-discover anti-Congressism when the mood shifts to the saffron side.
Modi has become India’s foremost talking point and the buzz may prove terribly contagious — and more so if Rahul continues to be engulfed by existential dilemmas. An electoral force generated by the energies of below is always an exhilerating experience for any democracy.