The problem with exit polls is that they often take the poetry out of the carnivals of democracy. Fortunately, there are opinion polls and exit polls, and experience shows that the sharp divergence of conclusions among pollsters helps keep the suspense alive. Thus, the overdose of exit polls last Wednesday will not really put an end to the suspense and excitement over the real thing this Sunday morning.
The exact nature of the final outcome of the Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana may well await the cumulative tallies of the Electronic Voting Machines. However, the exit polls make some things quite clear.
First, regardless of whether it secures outright victories or fall back on Independents and smaller parties, the results are likely to show a spectacular jump in the support for the BJP. This will be particularly apparent in Haryana where, until the general election of this year, the BJP was a fringe player. It ran a very poor third after the Congress and the INlD of Om Prakash Chauthala. For years the BJP central leadership lamented the failure to establish a meaningful base in a State that was adjoining both Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
The BJP’s real problem in Haryana was the absence of a caste base. Traditionally, political parties have used the support of a major caste as a springboard to greater glory. The core of the INlD from the time of Chaudhury Devi lal was, for example, always Jat based. Under Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the Congress too saw the pre-eminence of the Jat community in its power structure. This was a change from the social equation forged by Bhajan lal — a grand alliance of non-Jats.
The BJP went into battle this time trying to re-create the pre-Hooda social coalition of the Congress. It banked on the post-lok Sabha decline of the Congress and the focus was on pinning the INlD down to its core Jat support.
In Maharashtra, the BJP was always the junior partner of the Shiv Sena, except perhaps in Vidarbha where it had a significant organisational network. In fighting the Assembly elections on its own steam, the party had to over-extend itself considerably and bank almost exclusively on the euphoria around its May 2014 triumph. It was an audacious gamble and based on a claim to form a stable Government, even when its tentacles didn’t permeate down to every region and locality. Recall that the BJP had not contested the majority of Assembly seats ever since the 1990 alliance with the Shiv Sena. From that position to attempt outright was a colossal leap of faith.
Opponents have mocked the BJP for “importing” candidates from other parties in Maharashtra. The derision may be warranted on ethical considerations but in hard-nosed politics the BJP had little alternative in localities where it lacked social depth. It has banked on a local notable being able to successfully piggyback on a Modi wave to ensure victories in many rural constituencies.
I think, overall, the audacity has paid dividends. If the BJP registers a staggering improvement in its fortunes, it will reinforce its image as the principal political party and the natural replacement to the Congress as a pan-India party. More important, this success will trigger a chain reaction in places such as Assam and West Bengal, and to a lesser extent in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
Secondly, the over-dependence on the Prime Minister to generate a wave in its favour was only semi-planned. That Modi would campaign in both States was pre-planned. What was undecided was the intensity of his campaign. Once it became clear that he was the only leader drawing crowds and securing an ecstatic response, the campaign veered round to becoming Modi-centric. This is something the PM loves and his opponents played into his hands by making him the issue.
If the broad trends of the exit polls are confirmed on Sunday, they will have demonstrated that Modi’s appeal and popularity have actually grown since he became the PM some five months ago. Once the political class imbibes this message, we are likely to see two developments.
First, there is likely to be an exodus of individuals from the Congress (and its splinter organisations) into the BJP. In particular, those non-party people who were part of the larger Congress ecosystem are likely to suddenly discover virtues in Modi. Secondly, the PM’s hold on both his own party and on the Government he heads is likely to tighten. Whether Modi exercises this power at his disposal remains to be seen but in terms of the internal balance of power within the wider parivar, the PM will become nominally the first among equals but in reality the last word. The significance of this will become clearer in the coming days.
Finally, the two Assembly elections, if they confirm the forward march of the BJP, will inject an extra dose of energy into an already purposeful Government. With the Congress licking its wounds and contemplating its own future under a dynastic leadership, the Government is likely to move ahead more decisively in implementing the more difficult reforms. The dismantling of the economic roadblocks created by the earlier Government will probably be a feature of the next few months.
The Opposition will probably regroup and attempt some variant of a grand anti-BJP alliance in anticipation of the next Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. But this will take time. And between now and the time the Opposition gets a semblance of an act together will be Modi’s great window of opportunity to redefine India’s politics.
Maybe that is why we should all be glued to the TV this Sunday morning and afternoon.