After the results of the long-drawn general election of 1991 were declared, The Economist carried a report with an intriguing headline: ‘The winner came second.’ The allusion was to the BJP which set the agenda for the election but ended up with just 121 seats.
The BJP’s performance was impressive but the number of MPs it got to the lok Sabha was nowhere near its larger impact — a contribution of the Ayodhya movement. Maybe it would have performed significantly better had Rajiv Gandhi’s tragic assassination not generated a significant sympathy vote for the Congress in the second and third phases of voting.
Nevertheless, the clever headline of The Economist was wrong in one crucial respect: The BJP hadn’t mustered enough popular support to even claim moral victory. Despite its waning support, particularly in the States of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the Congress clearly outscored its saffron rival both in terms of seats and votes. This Sunday, as the Electronic Voting Machines reveal the electorate’s preferences in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi and for Mizoram on Monday, the focus will be on three issues: The state of the ruling Congress, the performance of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and, above all, Narendra Modi’s contribution to the BJP’s overall performance.
This article being written before even the first vote has been counted, it is hazardous to anticipate the outcome. The exit polls may well turn out accurate or they may be proved wrong but the analysis of the so-called Modi factor has already begun in right earnest. For many, the possible BJP victories, are indicative of local trends and suggest the endorsement (or rejection) of the respective chief ministerial candidates. What possible effect, it is being said, can Modi have on States where the BJP is already strongIJ By that logic, any talk of a Modi wave is both irrelevant and premature. A week being a long time in politics, the general election is still more than four months away.
However, the belief that 2014 will be significantly better for the Congress doesn’t appear to have too many takers. A strange sullenness appears to have overtaken the Delhi Establishment as it comes to terms with two emerging trends: That the Congress is the victim of a virulent epidemic of anti-incumbency and that Rahul Gandhi is not cutting much ice with voters. I would even go so far as to say that the Delhi Establishment has reconciled itself to a change of regime at the Centre.
This is quite a contrast from the time, barely three months ago, when the anointment of Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate was accompanied by the belief that this move was going to benefit the Congress. The understanding was based on two calculations. First, it was presumed (based entirely on media punditry) that Modi would unleash a campaign centred on hate and strident Hindu nationalism which would appeal to hardened BJP supporters. An aggressive Modi campaign would in turn provoke a counter-mobilisation of the minorities and Hindus fearful of social unrest in favour of the Congress.
Second, it was believed that a good monsoon coupled with the effects of the pro-poor measures championed by Sonia Gandhi would add to the Congress’ social base. While Modi, it was understood, would generate noise, he would be outflanked by the sensible majority. Recent developments, not the least of which are the falling growth rates and high inflation, have nullified these beliefs. Anecdotal evidence and opinion polls seem to be suggesting that not only is Modi drawing big crowds, he is also acquiring incremental support from social groups which had hitherto kept away from the BJP.
The belief that Modi is likely to be the next Prime Minister is fast turning out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. However, this is not to suggest that the Delhi Establishment has reconciled itself to this rank outsider controlling the Centre. Since Modi threatens a cosy political consensus, there are plots and schemes each day to make The Economist heading of 1991 a reality in 2014. At the heart of this thinking are the desires of those I would call the regulators. They exist all over the place and not least in a section of the BJP that is wedded to the cosy consensus. According to this line of thinking, the best way to keep Modi out is to ensure that the BJP tally in 2014 is limited to 160 or so seats. Such an outcome would ensure that the regional parties would have the decisive say in determining which individual would lead a non-Congress Government. And the belief is it won’t be Modi. This is a clever piece of thinking. However, it is based on the belief that an election outcome can be determined by a control mechanism. In other words, like the ceiling fan can the quantum of a BJP win can be regulated by those who believe that power is for enjoyment and not to produce changeIJ
Can a combination of internal subterfuge and backroom conspiracy slow down the Modi momentum and present opportunities to those who are not likely to rock the boatIJ Can the wilful myopia that delayed the leadership change for Delhi Assembly election become a patternIJ The outcome of the Assembly elections may not provide categorical answers to these questions. But it may reveal whether 2014 holds out hope for those who believe that politics is all about undercover deals.