Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's home turf Nalanda will prove to be a litmus test for the JDU-RJD alliance as the dominant castes in the region--- Kurmis and Yadav have for long been rivals here.
Whether they joins hands in the name of larger OBC unity or not will be at play in Nalanda, which will reflect the voting pattern for the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar. BJP has demanded deployment of Special Observer in Nalanda from the date of polling to that of counting.
Amid a perception that the NDA has lagged behind in first two phases, the BJP-led alliance is banking big on the third phase of polling on October 28 in 50 Assembly constituencies in six districts.
While it is confident of scoring in urban centres like Patna and BJP strongholds including Saran, Bhojpur and Buxar, the party is also leaving no stone unturned to spring a surprise in Nalanda as it tries hard to compensate for any losses in the first two phases.
Yadavs constitute 14 percent of the total electorates while Kurmis are 4 per cent in the state. While Yadavs are spread across the state, Kurmis are concentrated mainly in Nalanda and some other areas. However, they constitute around 30 percent of total votes in Nalanda.
The Parliamentary seat has an electorate of 19.49 lakh, including 5.5 lakh Kurmi voters.
Nalanda lok Sabha seat has sent veteran socialist leader George Fernandes to lok Sabha thrice, in 1996, 1989 and 1999. Nitish won from here in 2004. When Nitish Kumar became Chief Minister in 2005, the seat went to close aide Kaushalendra Kumar, who also retained in 2009.
In the Narendra Modi wave in 2014 also, Kaushlendra won the seat but with a narrow margin of 9627 votes, which indicated the changing mood even in the backyard of Nitish Kumar. Satya Nand Sharma from the lJP was the runner up.
The Ram Vilas Paswan's party has fielded candidates in three of the seven assembly seats--Hilsa, Asthawan and Harnout, where Nitish Kumar's ancestral village is located. last time JD-U in alliance with the BJP had won six of the seven seats in the district.
While political compulsions have forced Nitish and lalu to come together, both communities have a history of rivalry in Nalanda.
Ever since RJD supremo lalu Prasad came to power these two castes have been sharing power in the region by turns.
First it was a stronghold of lalu but soon Kurmis and other extremely backward castes started resenting the dominance of Yadavs. later Nitish Kumar made a dent in it. Since then Nalanda had been an impregnable fort of Nitish. The shift of power has left the Yadavs fuming. Voters in both communities want to retain the seats held by them in past.
It's not that the leaders are oblivious to the fact. Both Kumar and Prasad have addressed a number of rallies in the region to bring home the message of unity among their respective voters.
Opponents of the grand alliance believe that actions like reopening of the disproportionate assets case against lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi soon after Nitish Kumar came to power and the exit of Yadavs from contracts and other perks during the JD-U regime are fresh in the memory of the community and it will not vote for Nitish.
However, supporters of Mahagathbandhan talk of Triveni Sangh unity days. They argue that if after years of violent fight Nalanda, Nawada and Sheikhpura districts – Bhumihars and Kurmis can join hands under BJP-JDU regime, why can an alliance of Yadavs-Koiris and Kurmis can work as had happened in 1933 in the form of Triveni Sangh.
After the formation of Triveni Sangh in 1933 by Sardar Jagdeo Singh Yadav, Chaudhari Yadunandan Prasad Mehta and Dr Shivpujan Singh––a Yadav, a Koeri and a Kurmi respectively––the three castes had remained together as natural allies till 1994, when Nitish Kumar parted ways from lalu Prasad as complaints grew that only Yadavs are beneficiaries under lalu dispensation.
The Triveni Sangh was a formidable force against the upper castes.
"If a Yadav candidate is there, Kurmis do not vote for him. Similarly if some party has fielded a Kurmi candidate Yadavs do not vote for him," insists Suresh Chandravanshi of Kalyanbigha, the ancestral village of Nitish Kumar in Harnaut assembly segment of Nalanda.
Mindful of the chasm between the two communities, the rival NDA alliance has picked candidates, doing its own social engineering.
In Biharsharif and Islampur the NDA had fielded Kurmi candidates in a bid to make a dent in the vote base of Nitish. BJP has not fielded any upper caste candidate from Nalanda.
The grand alliance had done a lot of hair splitting on deciding candidates this time and had not shied away from denying tickets even to its sitting MlAs to arrive at better caste consolidation.
Besides this Yadav-Kurmi divide in the region, the BJP is also banking heavily on the non-Yadav OBCs like Mallah, and Chandravanshis. The party has inducted former minister and JD-U MlC Bhim Singh, a leader of Kahar (palanquin bearers) or Chandrvanshi, another EBC as the poll enters the crucial third and fourth amid a perception that the Mahagathbandhan had an age in first two phases with the political discourse revolving round reservation and forward versus upper caste fight.
Chandravanshis complain that they have not been given their due by political parties. In Nitish Kumar's Kalyan bigha, Suresh Chandravanshi had almost decided to file nomination but decided against it as he was "prevailed" upon that he should not do anything, which can spoil chances of the JD-U candidate in the Nitish stronghold.
"After Kurmis, Chandravanshis constitute the largest chunk of votes but they were given representation. I had decided to file nomination and had toured the entire village but backed out at last moment. This time Chandravanshi samaj is determined to vote for its own candidate. Most of the Chandravanshi votes will go to NCP's Neelam Devi, who is from the community. It's not that the Chandravanshi candidates will win this time but a message should go that we count. No party is giving value to Chandravanshi as if we do not matter. We have to prove it wrong," he says.
While the BJP inducted Bheem Singh, party veteran from and sitting MlA from Gaya Prem Kumar, who hails from the same community, shared the dais with BJP President Amit Shah during a press conference in Patna leading to tongue wagging that he may be the dark horse for Chief Ministership if the NDA wins.
Clearly the BJP is banking much on the somewhat silent EBC voters. With leaders like Ram Vilas Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi in its kitty, the NDA is wooing Dalits and Mahadalits.
Apart from the crude caste arithmetic, the BJP has tried to give a touch of glamour to the campaign in the entertainment starved regions. Film star Ajay Devgan also held a meeting here. Home Minister Rajnath Singh had already campaigned in the region and Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a rally in Nalanda today.
The rivals believe that despite campaigns like 'har ghar dastak', absence of JD-U cadres could spoil the game for Nitish as one of the drawback of the Chief Minister's ways of administering the state was that JD-U workers were not empowered as Nitish Kumar depended heavily on bureaucracy to rule the state, a phase which came after "over-interference" of politicos in administration during the RJD regime.
"last year when Nitish Kumar was addressing an election rally at Ashthawan block, angry villagers pelted stones at him. They were resenting against the local MP and Nitish had to ask the MP to tender an immediate apology. It's not that all issues will be glossed over under Nitish impact here," says a BJP supporter in Nalanda bazaar.
But difference seem to be reconciled in Harnout, where Nitish Kumar's ancestral home is located at Kalyan Bigha, where 'bas naam hi kaafi hai'.
Ramdev of Kichni village is angry that he is not getting old age pension and has not got a ration card even as households with four-five bighas of land have got it. But he is quick to add "bechara CM kya karenge. CM ka galati nahin hai. Beech wala sab gadbad karta hai (CM has no fault. All the wrongs are being done by the intermediaries."