The prospect of a North Korean missile launch is "considerably high," South Korea's foreign minister told lawmakers today as Pyongyang prepared to mark the April 15 birthday of its founder, historically a time when it seeks to draw the world's attention with dramatic displays of military power.
The missile is expected to be a medium-range Musudan missile with a range of 3,500 kilometers capable of flying over Japan, Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se told lawmakers in Seoul. Earlier a Defense Ministry official said preparations appeared to be complete, and that the launch could take place at any time.
North Korean officials have not announced plans to launch a missile, but have old foreign diplomats in Pyongyang that it will not be able to guarantee their safety starting today. It has also urged tourists in South Korea to take cover, warning a nuclear war was imminent.
Still, most diplomats and foreign residents appeared to be staying put. Such threats are seen as rhetoric and an attempt by North Korea to scare foreigners into pressing their governments to pressure Washington and Seoul to change their policies toward Pyongyang, and to boost the military credentials of its young leader, Kim Jong Un.
On the streets of Pyongyang the focus was less on preparing for war and more on beautifying the city ahead of the nation's biggest holiday. Soldiers hammered away on construction projects, gardeners got down on their knees to plant flowers and trees, and students marched off to school, belying the high tensions.
last year, the days surrounding the centennial of the birth of Kim Il Sung, grandfather of the current ruler, was marked by parades of tanks, goose-stepping soldiers and missiles, as well as the failed launch of a satellite-carrying rocket widely believed by the US and its allies in the West to be a test of ballistic missile technology.
A subsequent test in December went off successfully, and that was followed by the country's third underground nuclear test on Feb 12 this year, possibly taking the regime closer to mastering the technology for mounting an atomic bomb on a missile.
The resulting UN sanctions and this spring's annual US-South Korean military drills have been met with an unending string of threats and provocations from the North.
Adm. Samuel locklear, commander of US Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington yesterday that North Korea's persistent nuclear and missile programs and threats have created "an environment marked by the potential or miscalculation."
He said the US military and its allies would be ready if North Korea tries to strike.
The Musadan is a ballistic missile, and South Korea says its launch would violate UN Security Council resolution banning any ballistic activity by North Korea.
Despite such tidings of war, the people of Pyongyang went about their daily lives.