The mainstream political parties have been rooting for early Assembly polls and restoration of 'statehood' status to J&K, writes Mohit Kandhari
In 2023, when India holds the G-20 meetings, the global spotlight will be on Jammu and Kashmir.
It's expected, The Modi government would go all out on showcasing the changing face of Jammu and Kashmir in front of the World leaders during the G-20 summit.
The assembly polls are long due and the Election Commission of India is expected to take a call on whether or not to hold the elections ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir was reorganized into two Union Territories after the abrogation of articles 370 and 35-A on August 5, 2019.
In the absence of a democratically-elected popular government. the region is awaiting a 'healing touch' in the form of the resumption of 'political dialogue'.
The entire government machinery is already gearing up to 'peacefully' host the G-20 meeting. During the event, the government is likely to showcase its economic potential, tourism assets, and culture before the world powers.
By spreading a red carpet to the world leaders, the Union government wants to send across a loud message that the restive region is back to normalcy.
Both China and Pakistan made noises over organising meetings of G-20 leaders in Jammu and Kashmir, but the other member countries chose to ignore the objections. However, India may have to do a tightrope walk at the diplomatic level while dealing with 'belligerent' neighbors to ensure peace prevails during 2023.
J&k ready for polls ?
Compared to previous years, the security situation is gradually improving on ground zero in Jammu and Kashmir. The Union Territory administration headed by Lt-Governor Manoj Sinha is of the view that barring 'unfortunate' incidents of 'targeted killings' of members belonging to the minority community, outside workers, local policemen, and civilians the overall security scenario has improved. Investment is flowing in and big-ticket infrastructure projects are both shaping up and nearing completion. A record number of tourists are flocking to different parts of Jammu and Kashmir signaling that near normality has been restored in the restive region.
The incidents of stone pelting have also vanished across Kashmir valley post-Abrogation of Article 370. The National and State Investigating agencies have been working hard to track down those sponsoring the terrorist handlers and have already dismantled the ecosystem by choking the flow of funds meant for sponsoring anti-national activities.
The separatists and 'white collar' sympathizers of terrorists have been booked for harbouring and sheltering them, and the centers of radicalization and educational institutions managed by Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) have been closed down and properties worth 150 crores have been seized. The SIA has identified as many as 188 JeI properties across Jammu and Kashmir that have either been notified or are under the process of being notified for further legal action.
Schedule of Assembly polls?
The mainstream political parties have been rooting for early Assembly polls and restoration of 'statehood' status to J&K.
As of now, these political parties are relying only on 'murmurs’ heard in the corridors of power over the timing of the Assembly polls.
However, in the absence of any clarity, the mainstream political parties are already gearing up their poll machinery and organizing mass contact programs in both the regions of Jammu and Kashmir to consolidate their voter base.
It is expected by the time the Assembly polls are held there will be an entirely new political canvas for the electorate to ponder upon.
After the culmination of the marathon exercise of Delimitation of Assembly constituencies, the Election Commission of India launched the summary revision of Electoral rolls.
The last time when the Assembly polls were held in the region in 2014, the 'battle of ballot' was fought between the two Kashmir-based mainstream regional parties--the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)--- and two National parties -the Congress and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP).
Out of 87 Assembly seats, 80 seats were distributed among these four political parties.
Post Delimitation a total number of 7.72 lakh voters have been added in the final electoral rolls after the recent summary revision. The total electorate size has now risen from 7586899 to 8359771 voters in the 90 Assembly segments.
Refugees from West Pakistan, citizens belonging to the Valmiki community, and others have been listed as voters for the first-time post-Abrogation of Article 370. At present, a separate summary revision of electoral rolls for Panchayat elections is going on across Jammu and Kashmir. It is expected that before holding Assembly polls, the center may try and test the political waters by holding Panchayat polls.
Incidentally, several new political players have also emerged on the political scene to woo the electorate.
The latest entrant on the political scene is Ghulam Nabi Azad, Chairman of the newly launched Democratic Progressive Azad Party.
After quitting Congress, Azad decided to pad up for another long innings on his home turf. At the time of the launch of the DPA, his loyalists tried to project him as one of the probable Chief Ministerial candidates. But even before Azad could explain his party's road map to the masses and create a wave in his support, he seems to have lost the plot. His fledgling outfit is disintegrating and several of its founder members have quit.
"As a veteran election manager for the Congress, he may have earned for himself the sobriquet of a 'master strategist’, but he has failed miserably in keeping his own flock together," said a political analyst.
Azad had to expel a battery of senior party leaders even before registering his political party with the Election Commission of India. Ironically, the name of the party is also not finalized as yet.
Among those expelled from the party included one of his close confidantes and former Deputy Chief Minister Tara Chand who had remained loyal to him throughout his political career.
So, what went wrong in the last three months that Azad had to take such an extreme step? It seems a question of both trust deficit and Azad’s over-dependence on leaders belonging to the Chenab valley region.
The bickering surfaced s Azad concentrated more in the Chenab valley region of Jammu province and deliberately ignored the plain areas of Jammu, Samba, and Kathua.
For the sake of the record, Azad loyalists and party functionaries have accused the expelled leaders of hobnobbing with the Congress leadership and working against the interests of the party. They also accused Azad of working as a dictator. After their expulsion from the party, these leaders also accused Azad of ignoring Hindu-dominated pockets of Jammu and helping a particular political party by trying to split the secular vote to their advantage.
"The party has been hijacked by a handful of Azad loyalists from the Chenab valley. We were side-lined in the decision-making process. Only the name of the party was Democratic Azad Party. There was no democracy in the party, the expelled leaders charged.
Tara Chand said, "We cheated the Congress and Azad cheated us. I am surprised that a leader of his stature could expel us without any consultation. Azad was like family to us, whom we joined when he was alone.
Chand went on to say that with their expulsion, it’s clear that Azad did not want them to work in Hindu-majority areas. “ This is because he wants to help the BJP. In which case, how can he become an alternative in the state," Chand questioned.
Azad was JK's Chief Minister from November 2005 till July 2008. He was dislodged from the 'hot seat' by the alliance partner PDP in the aftermath of mass agitation over the Amarnath land row in both the regions of the state. It appears in the last 14 years Azad had not learned any lessons.
In 2008, he ignored the sentiments of the people of the Jammu region and ended up losing his chair. In 2022, he again committed the same mistake and is expected to pay a heavy price.
Political experts say after returning to Jammu and Kashmir Azad could have played the role of a 'kingmaker', but so far he has failed to make any impact.
He is only attacking the Congress party and not taking a clear stand as regards the Bharatiya Janta Party and other contentious issues bothering the common people of the region.
His statements over the issue of restoration of Article 370 led to war of words between him and the Kashmir-based regional political parties.
Despite winter chill the political temperatures rising in Jammu and Kashmir
Each day, several public meetings are addressed by the politicians in different parts of Jammu and Kashmir. During all these meetings, the leaders belonging to the opposition parties have been singing chorus in support of their demand for early assembly elections and the restoration of statehood as promised by the Union government on the floor of the Parliament.
After the Abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A several political outfits have been launched in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
In March 2020, seven months after the reorganization of J&k state, former PDP Finance Minister Syed Altaf Bukhari launched the Jammu and Kashmir Apni. The majority of members, mostly from the Mehbooba Mufti-led group and Congress besides a few from the National Conference (NC) joined him.
Other players namely Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Conference led by Sajjad Lone, Dogra Swabhimaan Sangathan led by former MP Lal Singh, IkkJutt Jammu led by Advocate Ankur Sharma, and Aam Admi party have also thrown their hat in the poll arena.
In Kashmir, these parties are introduced among the masses as B and C team of the BJP while in the Jammu region, all the Kashmir-based regional political parties have left the field open for the BJP to capture at its own sweet will.
No significant effort is being made by the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party to consolidate their voter base in the Jammu region.
To say the least, National Conference Vice President and former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has almost lost touch with the electorate of the Jammu region.
Barring attending some party meetings inside the NC office complex, Omar has seldom visited the Jammu region to address public meetings and interact with the party leaders. Local leaders are mostly called to Srinagar to hold parleys on important issues.
The party has been organizing public meetings in some pockets of Rajouri, Poonch, Doda and he has been attending the same, but beyond that, there is no connection with the electorate. In contrast, Dr. Farooq Abdullah is religiously meeting his party workers during his stay in Jammu, But ever since former party Provincial President DS Rana joined BJP, the party unit is struggling to organize big public meetings to host their leaders.
National Conference also lost its support base amid a widening gap between Gujjar, Bakerwal and members of the Pahadi-speaking community. BJP is eyeing the sizable vote bank of Pahadis to try and win the majority seats from the frontier districts of Rajouri and Poonch.
At present, the benefit of Scheduled Tribe status is given only to the members of Gujjar Bakarwal community in Jammu and Kashmir. Their estimated population is a little over 14 lakhs while the estimated size of the Pahari community is a little over 8 lakhs. The members of the Pahari community are mostly located in Rajouri, Poonch, Uri, Keran, Karnah, Pahalgam and Shopian.
Rajouri Poonch comprises eight assembly seats. Except for two of these, which include the seats of Nowshera and Sunderbani, the remaining six seats are inhabited by 40 percent of the Gujjar community. Whichever side they sit on in the election, the result will be in favor of the same candidate.
Similarly, in Baramulla, Kupwara district of North Kashmir, a large number of Gujjar and Pahari-speaking people can turn the table. This is the reason that by giving reservations to the Pahadi community, the BJP wants to strengthen its hold in Rajouri, Poonch, and North Kashmir.
PDP struggling to retain its vote share
Several party leaders and former ministers have dumped the party and joined APNI party and National Conference leaving her in the lurch. The National Conference and APNI party are eyeing PDP vote bank in the South Kashmir districts of Kashmir valley. Omar Abdullah has addressed a series of public meetings in the PDP stronghold to woo the electorate.
During her visits to the Jammu region, Mehbooba is surrounded by a handful of party leaders. Instead of addressing big public gatherings, she prefers meeting some party delegations and making an appearance at some of social events to register her presence.
It appears both these Kashmir-based regional parties have made no significant effort to regain their lost ground or retain the voter base to give a tough fight to the BJP which is aiming for the first time to form a majority government on its own strength. The party leadership has set itself a goal of winning at least 50 Assembly seats to anoint a Hindu Chief Minister. For the time being BJP has set its eyes on winning the majority of seats from the Jammu region and to secure the majority seats the party may have to take the help of like-minded parties from the Kashmir valley.
PAGD in disarray ?
In Kashmir valley, the Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) is in disarray. Initially, they were keen on fielding a joint candidate during the Assembly polls , but National Conference leadership has already hinted that it was preparing to contest all 90 seats and was in no mood to field joint candidates under the prevailing circumstances. In the absence of any final decision, the constituents of PAGD are heading in different directions and are not able to iron out their differences over contesting the poll together.
Since the 2002 Assembly polls, none of the Kashmir-based political parties has managed to win more than 30 seats.
In 2002, PDP formed an alliance government with the Congress party. In 2009, Omar Abdullah headed a National Conference-Congress government between 2009-2014. In March 2015, BJP and PDP came together under the leadership of Mufti Mohd Sayeed. After Mufti Mohd Sayeed died, his daughter took over the baton and ran an alliance government with the BJP till June 2018.
Now it remains to be seen whether J&k is ready to give a decisive mandate by electing a one-party majority government or will it once again vote for a hung assembly. The timing of the Assembly polls will play a significant role in determining the outcome of the polls.
(The writer is Senior Correspondent of The Pioneer)