For India, beefing up Vietnam’s defence capability is aimed at countering Chinese arms sales to its immediate neighbours, such as Pakistan, says Rajaram Panda
The geo-strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific region is undergoing dramatic churning in recent times in which Vietnam’s position has emerged as a major focal point amongst many nations. The US, Japan and India are three major countries which have found strategic congruence with Vietnam. US President Barack Obama became the third sitting President in office to visit Vietnam, with whom the US fought a bitter war over four decades ago.
lately, the Shinzo Abe Government has deepened defence and economic ties with this country. India is not far behind. Days after Barack’s visit, India’s Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar led a high-level defence industry delegation on June 5-6, 2016, representing most major Indian arms companies to boost military relations. In 2015, President Pranab Mukherjee made a historic visit to Vietnam. A landmark that coincided with Parrikar’s visit was that both countries completed 45 years of diplomatic relations and 10 years of strategic partnership.
The diplomatic outreach of major powers to Vietnam is driven by the China factor. Parrikar’s visit indicates that India is keen to deepen military engagement with Vietnam with a view to counter China’s increasing footprint in the Indian Ocean by setting up a naval base at Hainan Island, located adjacent to Vietnam. China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea is another trigger for India-Vietnam bonhomie.
DEFENCE COOPERATION
What India is looking at is joint development and production orders from Vietnam. Both India and Vietnam share a commonality of interest on military platforms, most of which are of Russian origin, including submarines and frigates. Both countries have a defence cooperation agreement and India’s possible sale of Brahmos missile to Vietnam has emerged as a major talking point. No wonder, Parrikar was accompanied by the DRDO Chief, Secretary (Defence Production), Chief of Eastern Naval Command, Director General Military Training and Director Generation Operation of the IAF.
Besides Vietnam, UAE has also evinced interest to have Brahmos in its arsenal. Parrikar was in that country on May 22-23 when this issue came up for discussion. Though New Delhi has not yet agreed on the sale of Brahmos with the UAE, the Narendra Modi Government has cleared the sale of Brahmos to Vietnam. In fact, Vietnam had been eyeing the missile for the past five years. The UPA Government was reluctant to take a decision because of Chinese objections.
Brahmos is a supersonic anti-ship missile developed jointly by New Delhi and Moscow. India and Russia have to agree to export this weapon system to a third country. It is considered one of the most effective and lethal anti-ship missiles in any nation’s inventory because of its speed. The missile can be launched from both ship and land. Its supersonic speed and the ability to skim the surface at heights as low as 10 m make it hard for an enemy’s radar to track. It is practically invulnerable to modern anti-missile and air defence systems.
India, too, is testing a submarine-launch version that could conceivably be used in Vietnam’s Kilo-class submarines. In view of the strategic congruence, both Modi and Parrikar were in favour of exporting the missile system to Vietnam. Vietnam could emerge as the first country to receive the 290-km range Brahmos weapon system by India. Parrikar and Vietnam’s new Minister of Defence, Gen Ngo Xuan lich, exchanged opinions on the areas to strengthen military cooperation between the two countries.
The rationale behind the Modi Government’s decision to sell the Brahmos is not difficult to decipher. As said, the UPA Government succumbed to the Chinese objections and did not give nod to the sale of the missile system to Vietnam. After the Modi Government came to power, the strategic scenario in the region has dramatically altered with China becoming more assertive and belligerent to assert its claims on disputed territories and maritime space in the region over which there are other claimants, thereby disturbing the existing power equilibrium.
Vietnam, along with China, is one of the six countries locked in a bitter dispute over navigation rights through the South China Sea. In particular, Vietnam is prepared to take the cudgel over China in the face-off over maritime boundaries and needs friends. While Vietnam has friends in the US, India and Japan, China is getting increasingly isolated.
The Philippines, another claimant, has taken up the case to the International Tribunal at The Hague for arbitration. China has declared that it would reject the verdict. Under the circumstance, China’s increasing footprint needs to be checked so that the peace and stability in the region is not disturbed.
India has its own stake in the South China Sea. ONGC is engaged in oil exploration activity in areas claimed by Vietnam and has gone there on Vietnam’s invitation. It has rights to two oil drilling blocks off the Vietnam coast. If its economic interests are adversely affected by Chinese actions, India would be compelled to defend, with the possibility of further escalation. That would be an unwelcome proposition. More than $70 billion worth of Indian trade is routed through these waters.
Japan is also on board. At the annual Asia Security Summit in Singapore prior to his visit to Vietnam, Parrikar had a meeting on the sidelines with his Japanese counterpart Gen Nakatani and agreed on continued bilateral cooperation on maritime security amid China’s growing territorial assertiveness. India, Japan and the US started to conduct the Malabar joint naval exercise off Okinawa Prefecture on June 10, a move that has already ruffled the feathers of prickly China. Parrikar stressed that it was in Beijing’s own economic interest to reduce tensions in the South China Sea.
Parrikar and Singapore’s counterpart Ng Eng Hen also stressed that all countries must respect freedom of navigation and right of passage as well as unimpeded commerce and access to resources in international waters. Though Singapore is not affected by China’s belligerence in the South China Sea, it shares other nations’ concern over the raging dispute.
UNHAPPY CHINA
China feels uneasy at this increasing India-Vietnam bonhomie and is keenly watching. When Russia sold the Kilo-class submarines to Vietnam, the Indian Navy trained the Vietnamese Navy. On its part, India is also setting up a satellite tracking and imaging centre in southern Vietnam that will give Hanoi access to pictures from India’s earth observation satellites that cover the region, including China and the South China Sea. When Obama was in Vietnam in May, he announced an end to its embargo on sales of lethal arms to Vietnam. That was a historic step that draws a line under the two countries’ old enmity.
These developments are unpleasant news for China. Though beefing up of Vietnam’s defence capability is inevitably a counter to Chinese design, for India it is also a counter to Chinese arms sales to its immediate neighbourhood, including sale of submarines to Pakistan and military systems to Sri lanka and Bangladesh.
So far, India’s defence exports are minuscule but have grown perceptibly. The future looks promising with Modi Government’s Make in India programme. The sale of Brahmos to Vietnam shall boost the Indian industry. Besides the sale of four naval patrol vessels from Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers to Vietnam, the sale of Brahmos as another viable export product shall reinforce the defence sale as an instrument of India’s regional diplomacy.
It was, therefore, appropriate that in this strategic partnership model, Parrikar roped in business leaders in the arms manufacturing sector in his delegation so that the synergy can be appropriately honed. He urged the Indian defence industry to help Vietnam in its military modernisation. The areas identified for cooperation are upgrade of thermal sights and fire control systems for BMP, T 54 and T 55 tanks, upgrade of MI 17/MI 8 helicopters, shipbuilding programmes, missile system from India and software defined radios from Vietnam.
In May 2015, when then Vietnamese Defence Minister General Phùng Quang Thanh visited India, a five-year (2015-2020) defence pact was signed. The intention to build close strategic ties was in the backdrop of an increasingly assertive China flexing its muscle in the South China Sea. That time, cooperation between the coast guards of the two countries and defence cooperation, including cooperation in the area of maritime security, was agreed upon.
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Vietnam in August ahead of President Mukherjee’s visit in September reaffirmed India’s commitment to support Vietnam’s cause. This was followed by Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s visit to India in October. Parrikar’s recent visit was a further extension and reaffirmation of such commitment. Cooperation in the defence sector shall complement the economic ties which have also been developing satisfactorily.
The writer, a leading expert on the security/strategic issues in the Asia-Pacific, was formerly Senior Fellow at IDSA, Delhi