The State is yearning for a change, with the BJP’s slogan of ‘chalo paltai’ reflecting an undercurrent against Manik Sarkar’s Government after 25 years of continuous rule
Tripura went to poll on February 18, where the BJP-IPFT alliance is contesting the CPIM-led Government in a direct battle. The Congress, though contesting, is not a serious electoral player, as it is appeared from its absence on ground, lack of serious attention of the party high command, and the dilution of the local unit after the alliance with the CPIM in West Bengal after 2013.
The BJP — which had managed 34,000 standalone votes and lost deposits in most of the seats contested in 2013 — has emerged as the main Opposition post-2014. The BJP in Tripura has become the pillar around which anti-left voters are consolidating. This makes Tripura an ideological battle exercised through elections, and is indeed a unique one too. Even though Tripura elections are in news distantly and remotely, this election is infusing renewed energy and vigour in the media. The media waiting to take sides should keep the ground reports at the centre of its analysis.
The State — with a population of 38 lakh, roughly 24 to 25 lakh voting population, on an average 38,000 voters per constituency, and more than 90 per cent voter turnout — is witnessing a battle between two slogans: ‘Tripura trusts Modi — Chalo paltai, and ‘Shanti Unnati Unnayan’.
‘Chalo paltai’ is a slogan coined by the BJP team reflecting an undercurrent against the Government of Manik Sarkar after 25 years of rule. The slogan has resonated reasonably well with people and is evident from the historic response it received at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Agartala, North Tripura, and South Tripura in February. It is one of many firsts for the State to witness a PM address on four occasions. It is unparalleled in recent history. The slogan ‘Chalo paltai’ also reflects a confidence in the path that the people of Tripura can take away from CPI (M) rule, away from red to saffron.
Apart from the slogan, the ground might be yearning for a change. Tripura has the highest unemployment rate, the highest number of people below the poverty line, selective deprivation and denial of MGNREGA benefits, absence of industrial development, only 30 per cent people able to cross graduation level studies, and 4th pay scale model commission for Government employee — in short, a State where poverty is manufactured, deprivation is created to win votes. The only saving grace was the clean image of the incumbent Chief Minister, Manik Sarkar, and the people’s confidence in his modest living. However, after the Rose Valley scam, the clean image has taken a hit. A blot not necessarily on the CM’s image personally, but on the party, at large.
Tripura is full of anecdotes of pain of berojgar, bhatta, and bhedbhav. I remember meeting a young boy, Shyan, in Agartala, who was regularly following my team’s election reportage. He said, “Sir, can I ask you a question, please do not mindIJ Will the Government change this timeIJ I hope it does. I work for 20 hours daily but still manage to earn Rs 5,000.” Shyan’s story of grief echoes the sentiment of the youth in Tripura. I remember travelling to Khowai, the heart of CPI (M) movement in Tripura. Most of the members of the party hail from this area of the State, including Nripendra Chakravarty. The battleground of Khowai, which was earlier considered a ‘no contest’, is being sought closely by the BJP’s Amit Dixit and CPI (M)’s Nirmal Vishwas. CPI (M) is suffering an internal rift having denied ticket to popular candidate, Vishvajeet Sharma. It is facing the BJP which is getting support from the youth, women, and local business community in Khowai. Amit Shah’s road show in Khowai has given momentum to the local unit of BJP in Khowai, even though the battle will go to the last 24 hours before the election.
Business in Tripura works on ‘cadre favouritism model’. People who do not support the ruling party do not receive support from the Government — no capital, no employees, no loan. Shantir Bazar, a constituency in south Tripura, is one of the many such constituencies with optimum business potential yet negligible job and business creation. Many native Bengalis here have local photo shops, kirana shops, despite being graduate and post graduate degree holders. The State is known for rubber and bamboo plantation, however despite emphasis on the two, declassifying bamboo as a forest produce limited the economic benefit reaching the small and marginal farmer (though the current Union Budget has declassified bamboo as a non-forest produce), and absence of rubber manufacturing and packaging industries did not complete the economic supply chain of farm to market.
The State, despite the ground reality of deprivation, has given repeated mandates to Manik Sarkar and the CPI (M) Government. The mandate has been for:
Peace: The Congress Government in 1990s reminded the State of violence and religious riots. The people, in the presence of no other alternative, thought and believed peace as a better option.
Fear of exclusion: Since the anti-left Opposition in Tripura was weak, virtually absent, dissenting voices had no pillar to gain strength and speak up. Any voice of dissent was crushed, excluded in welfare, and in some extreme cases, even eliminated.
Tacit alliance with the Congress at Centre: The then Congress Government at the Centre worked in alliance with the CPI(M). Its partner in the Centre gave Tripura no serious electoral thought and worked without any sincere electoral strategy. Elections were tactical for the Congress, not strategic. It could never position itself as the centre-right or an anti-left party ideologically. The alliance partner, CPI(M), governed the State, surviving on increasing percentage of money from the Centre, which continued even post-2014. Though after 2014, the Centre was no more an ally of the CPI(M), the BJP could position itself as the anti-left, centre-right party, deployed its prabhari Sunil Deodhar, who resurrected the local unit from scratch, appointed National General Secretary Ram Madhav to change its fortune in the North-East. He, along with Himanta Biswa Sarma, who knows the State inside out, carved the BJP strategy in the North-East. Unlike the Congress, the BJP looked at N-E more strategically, not tactically. The Centre, under the leadership of PM Modi, laid special emphasis on the N-E representation in the Union Cabinet, increased developmental spending on infrastructure areas, particularly roads. The shift from look East to Act East marked sincerity of governance, diplomacy, and electoral purpose.
Closer to elections, the alliance with the IPFT give the BJP an indoor into tribal areas. It was a common saying in Tripura that the CPI(M) fought any election as a plus 20 election; plus 20 reflected the 20 tribal seats that the party always won convincingly. The IPFT, representing the aspirations of tribals with its aggression, along with the support of the BJP has made the election unique and an evenly fought matter on these 20 seats. The IPFT’s aggression, along with the support of the Centre, is giving karyakartas the confidence to fight the CPI(M) in its own backyard. The demand of independent Tripura land has been put to rest for now and the broader goal to defeat the CPI(M) has taken priority. The demand of independent tribal land should not be viewed as a step to divide the State, but a genuine aspiration of the tribals, who are dependent on the land for economic activity. Addressing the aspirations of better economic living is the genesis of the demand. To say that the tribals are against a “united Tripura” is a distant conclusion.
The State has witnessed a 90 per cent voter turnout in previous elections, but behind this number are also stories of the sharpest increase of 200 per cent in polling post-2 pm, a non-transparent voter list, and a ballot preferred over the EVM. Uniquely in Tripura, the Chief Electoral Officer of the Election Commission resides in the same building as the Chief Minister’s Secretariat. However, the presence of sufficient number of CRPF and Central forces, a more active, aware, and concerned Election Commission should be enough to bury these aspersions of free and fair polling. Every serious political analyst, commentator and student of Indian politics should analyse the results keeping these points in mind. If the CPI(M) still pulls off a victory, Manik Sarkar will create history; if the BJP wins, Manik Sarkar will be history.
The writer is the founder, Jan Ki Baat, and stayed in the State for 30 days, travelling to 50 to 60 constituencies