It is true that the massive win for the JDU-led alliance indicates that the people of Bihar gave a thumbs-up to Nitish Kumar’s 10-year performance, but several other factors worked in favour of the Mahagathbandhan, explains Sumit Kumar Jha
The Mahagathbandhan or the grand alliance has registered a landslide victory in the Bihar Assembly Elections held in five phases during October-November 2015, which will see Nitish Kumar becoming the Chief Minister of the State for the third term, as the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has faced defeat.
This is evident from the fact that while the grand alliance has succeeded in getting a two-third majority in the House of 243 seats, securing 178 seats (RJD 80, JDU 79 and Congress 27), the NDA got just 58 (BJP 53, lJP 2, RlSP 2, HAM 1).
While it is true that the massive win for the JDU-led alliance indicates that the people of Bihar gave a nod to Nitish’s 10-year performance, we also need to bear in mind that there are several other factors which have worked in favour of the Mahagathbandhan.
First, the coming together of the JDU, RJD and Congress under one umbrella greatly helped the grand alliance in consolidating anti-BJP votes. In fact, the grand alliance relied upon the fact that in the 2014 Parliamentary Elections, the JDU, RJD and Congress had together secured 45 per cent vote as against the 36 per cent combined vote share of the BJP and lJP.
Indeed, the strategy of the JDU alliance worked well the Bihar Assembly Elections in view of the fact that the Mahagathbandhan got 41.9 per cent of the valid vote as against 34.1 per cent for the BJP-led NDA coalition.
Second, despite the fact that the BJP gave tickets to many Yadav candidates, lalu Prasad Yadav succeeded in getting a majority of those votes.
Third, the JDU-led alliance successfully convinced the Muslim minority community that if the BJP-led NDA came to power, it could lead to security concerns for them. This may be explained by the fact that the issue of lynching of a Muslim man at Dadri in Uttar Pradesh was used aggressively by the Mahagathbandhan during election campaigns to project the Narendra Modi Government at the Centre as anti-Muslim. This, among other factors, pulled Muslim voters to the polling booths in large numbers to vote for the grand alliance.
Fourth, lalu’s attempts in making the Bihar Assembly Elections as forward Vs backward helped the grand alliance deepen its base among the people of lower castes. At the same time, both lalu and Nitish always remained united, projecting the Mahagathbandhan as a stronger alliance before the people of Bihar. A significant rise in the vote percentage of women and youth also went in favour of the JDU-led alliance.
Fifth, Nitish’s decision to hire Prashant Kishor — who had worked for Prime Minister Modi during the last General Elections — to manage his election strategy in Bihar proved to be a master stroke against the BJP. This can be gauged from the fact that his idea of launching Jan Bhagidari Manch raths and Parche Par Charcha enabled Nitish to inform the people about the work his Government had done in the last 10 years.
On the other hand, the BJP’s decision to not project its Chief Ministerial candidate to compete with Nitish, who enjoys a clean image among the people of Bihar, was not seen as a good strategy by many political experts and analysts, especially when the BJP has a galaxy of leaders in the State.
This decision of the BJP, it is believed, severely damaged the internal unity among the State leadership, which could not be repaired till the end of the elections, ultimately costing the party dear.
In this connection, it is important to mention that many experts and analysts have argued that BJP National President Amit Shah’s centralised approach to Assembly Elections failed to keep his workers in the loop, creating a sense of disenchantment among them. This despite the fact that Shah camped in Patna a month before the elections, and while addressing rallies in the day, he met his workers and RSS leaders to understand the ground realities and accordingly made changes in his strategy. PM Modi, too, addressed more than two dozen allies in the State.
This writer, during his visit to many villages in the Madhubani district, found that Mahagathbandhan workers were campaigning far more aggressively than their NDA counterparts. This in turn ultimately paid off for the grand alliance. The selection of candidates also severely impacted the prospects of the party, about which BJP leader and lok Sabha MP RK Sinha had hinted well in advance.
Also, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s statement that there is a need for review the reservation policy of the country proved to be handy for the Mahagthbandhan to score over the BJP-led alliance. lalu left no stone unturned in convincing people belonging to the SC, ST, OBC and other backward castes that if the BJP-led alliance came to power, it would abolish reservation. Though PM Modi tried to assure that he would bet his life to protect the reservation policy, the results show that people of the lower castes were sceptical.
Rise in prices of essential commodities, especially pulses, was used by Opposition parties to question the 18 months’ performance of the Modi Government.
The BJP’s focus on attacking the RJD by arguing that if the JDU-RJD alliance came to power it would initiate Jungle Raj II also did not work. However, this is not much of surprise in a State like Bihar which is a highly caste-ridden society.
It is not that the people are not aware about the misrule or Jungle Raj during the 15-year rule of lalu and Rabri Devi. Yet, people get easily mobilised along caste lines, especially during elections. This is true about people of lower castes because there is generally deep-rooted feeling among them that their empowerment can only be possible when someone from among them is at the helm of affairs.
Indeed, being aware of this factor, the BJP had tactfully forged an alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan and Jitan Ram Manjhi to garner votes from the lower castes. However, the HAM and lJP completely failed in adding to the total strength of the NDA by getting just one and two seats respectively.
Another factor which surprisingly misled the BJP is that it believed that massive turnout of crowds to the PM’s rallies would eventually mean votes for its candidate. In hindsight, it now appears even before going to listen to Modi, most of the people part of these crowds had made up their mind about the fact that they would vote for the JDU-led alliance. The results of the Bihar Assembly Elections also testify to the fact that the BJP in Bihar is by and large viewed as a party of upper castes.
looking Ahead
Now, as the Mahagathbandhan is set to resume power, with the RJD as the largest partner, it will be interesting to see how Nitish would be able to protect his clean image by not allowing lalu’s shadow to fall on pursuing his developmental programmes and providing effective and good governance to the people of the State.
Of course, this doubt would continue to linger for two reasons: First, the 15 years’ rule of the RJD had taken Bihar 50 years back. Second, there is increasing fear among sections of people in the State that having secured more seats than the JDU, lalu would gradually set the terms and conditions upon Nitish, failing the hopes and aspirations of the common man in the State.
As far as the BJP is concerned, the loss in Bihar is the second major jolt for the party in a row, following the complete whitewash in the Delhi Assembly Elections. However, it would be erroneous to term the Bihar Assembly Elections as a referendum on the Modi Government. The reality is that Modi continues to be the tallest leader in the country and is far ahead of any other Indian leader in terms of popularity.
It is also highly unlikely to make any conclusive assessment about the fact that the results of the Bihar Assembly Elections would have an adverse impact on the fortune of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and other State Assembly Elections. However, it is important for the BJP to examine why and how it lost both Delhi and Bihar Assembly Elections despite the fact that initially it was far ahead of all its opponents.
At the same time, the BJP needs to ensure that some leaders refrain from making provocative statements which do huge damage to the prospects of the party.
As Parliament resumes for the Winter Session, the Prime Minister should take initiatives to break the ice with the Opposition to ensure the passing of all important Bills stuck in either House. This would not only qualify the BJP as a party with a difference in the real sense, but also help in accelerating economic growth and job opportunities, which in turn would help the Modi Government in realising Sab Ka Saath, Sab Ka Vikas.
The writer is an ICSSR Doctoral Fellow at the School of Social Sciences and International Studies, Pondicherry University