India’s immediate neighbourhood is undergoing a period of profound political turmoil. From the Himalayan foothills of Nepal to the conflict-ridden plains of Myanmar, regime changes, military coups, civil unrest, and economic collapse are rapidly redefining the South Asian political map. What once appeared to be stable governments are crumbling under the weight of corruption, mismanagement, and rising youth-led demands for change.
In Nepal, the collapse of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s Government was triggered by a move that outraged the public: the blocking of major social media platforms such as Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), YouTube, and others. The justification was a new law requiring global tech firms to register locally, but citizens viewed it as an attempt to stifle dissent. What followed was a series of “Gen Z” protests-youth-led, tech-driven, and focused not only on free speech but on deeper issues such as unemployment, inequality, and endemic corruption. Though Oli resigned, Nepal’s history of political instability-with thirteen governments since 2008-has made many citizens wary of yet another leadership shuffle.
However, hope has flickered anew. Former Chief Justice Sushila Karki has been appointed as the head of Nepal’s interim government-the first woman to hold such a position. With Indian roots and an academic background from Banaras Hindu University (BHU), her appointment has been warmly welcomed in India. Many Nepalese now look to her leadership as a chance to rebuild political trust and chart a new democratic path.
In Bangladesh, similar frustration boiled over in 2024. Years of allegations against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s administration-corruption, suppression of opposition, and authoritarianism — reached a tipping point. Protests led by university and college students pushed the regime to collapse. Today, the country is led by an interim administration under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, but challenges remain. Political uncertainty, communal tensions, and rising Islamist influence threaten to derail any progress. India and the world are also keeping their eyes on upcoming Bangladesh elections. Sri Lanka continues to grapple with the aftershocks of its 2022 collapse. The fall of the Rajapaksa regime amid economic collapse and fuel shortages left the island in crisis. A large-scale IMF bailout provided temporary relief, but the painful process of tax hikes and austerity has tested public patience. President (AKD) now leads a fragile recovery effort, but with inflation still high and trust in institutions low, renewed unrest is a constant threat.
Pakistan, too, has not been spared. In April 2022, Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted via a no-confidence vote after clashing with the powerful military establishment. His arrest in 2023 over corruption charges led to widespread protests-many driven by disillusioned youth. The state cracked down hard, and Khan’s party, PTI, has since been largely suppressed. The country’s economy is sinking under debt, inflation is soaring, and relations with India remain tense after a series of cross-border attacks. The fall of regimes in India’s neighbourhood The once-promising democratic movement in Pakistan appears weakened, if not entirely derailed. Afghanistan offers perhaps the starkest picture of regression. The Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 following the U.S. withdrawal has plunged the country into a human rights and governance crisis. Girls have been banned from schools and universities; dissent is brutally silenced.
Meanwhile, in Myanmar, the 2021 military coup that overthrew democratic icon Aung San Suu Kyi plunged the country into civil war. The military misjudged the public’s response-mass protests erupted across the country, met with brutal crackdowns and mass killings. Thousands of civilians, facing state violence, took up arms and formed resistance groups that now operate from the country’s dense jungles. In retaliation, the military has launched indiscriminate bombings and artillery strikes, devastating entire communities to root out insurgents.
Myanmar’s internal war has sparked a serious refugee crisis spilling over into India. According to Reuters, more than 65,000 refugees, primarily from the Chin ethnic group, have fled to India-many seeking asylum in Mizoram. The coup has claimed over 3,000 lives and pushed nearly 17 million people to the brink of starvation, worsening one of the region’s worst humanitarian crises.
Across South Asia, the common theme is undeniable: discontent with entrenched elites, catalysed by youth anger, rising inequality, and eroded democratic institutions. As Paul Staniland from the University of Chicago notes, the crisis is structural; people no longer see ruling classes as capable of delivering a secure or prosperous future.
However, spontaneous uprisings often lack strong leadership. In Nepal and Bangladesh, interim governments have filled the void, but without long-term reform, the same elite circles may return to power. Fragile coalitions and political vacuums continue to stall progress.
For India, these cascading crises present immediate strategic challenges:
o Nepal’s open border raises concerns about infiltration and migration.
o Bangladesh’s unrest could empower radical elements in the region.
o Sri Lanka’s ports remain battlegrounds for Indian and Chinese influence.
o Pakistan’s instability threatens regional peace and security.
o Afghanistan and Myanmar present twin threats of terrorism and refugee influxes.
In just a few years, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Myanmar, and Afghanistan have all witnessed either regime collapses or authoritarian consolidations. Each upheaval represents a turning point-not only for those nations but also for India’s regional diplomacy, security posture, and humanitarian engagement.