Will Modi and Putin be able to reboot India-Russia relationship to make it more relevant and put it on a forward trajectory when they meet in New Delhi next weekIJ Despite scepticism, there is trust and comfort factor among the two countries. Indications are Modi is keen on turning around the ties with Russia in a big way
Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in New Delhi next week hog the headlines like when he had met other world leadersIJ The two leaders have already met at BRICS and G20 Summits. Modi’s proclivity for Putin will be most visible because he, like any other Indian, would be deeply aware about the unmatched trust, confidence and warmth towards Russia. Most Indians do know that only the Russians stood firmly behind India in its difficult times. Ties with Russia never featured in election campaigns regardless of political parties or Governments.
India is known for not conveniently changing its friends. Even Manmohan Singh, despite his hobnobbing with Washington, had finally felt more at home in Moscow when he attended the 14th India-Russia Summit in October 2013.
However, skeptics question whether the old and time-tested India-Russia ties have any relevance now. This is not an easy question to answer because only the ‘buyer-seller’ business transaction in defence deals remains the bedrock of bilateral ties and this too is threatened by global competitiveness. The US has already overtaken as the number one military supplier to India last year. Clearly, the relationship has failed to keep pace with the changing times and aspirations. Can Modi and Putin reboot the relationship to make it more relevant and put it on a forward trajectoryIJ Indications are that Modi is keen on turning around the relations with Russia in a big way.
The 15th Summit will be held against several misgivings that surfaced as spinoffs of post-Crimea events. If Moscow’s big shift towards Beijing caused worries, its decision to forge defence cooperation with Islamabad has sown seeds of confusion and doubts in New Delhi. For a long time now, Russians have not only been upset about India’s military procurement policy, but have also been unable to digest the US overtaking their weaponry market. Many in Moscow are sulking, seeking retribution by freezing cooperation with India and looking at closer Russia-Pakistan ties to compensate the market loss. Specter of voices have emerged in the media: ‘Whom does India stand for — the US or RussiaIJ’
The Indian disappointment stems from Russian failure to meet delivery schedules, jacking up costs, reluctance to transfer technology and supply of unreliable spares. It took years to finally deliver INS Vikramaditya. New Delhi is showing growing impatience over Russia’s delivery timeframe of two flagship projects, the stealth Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) based on PAK-FA or Sukhoi T-50 and the Multi-Role Transport Aircraft (MTA) based on Il-214. Both are to be designed and developed jointly with India. As it stands, it may take years before production can commence. India will spend around $25 billion on the entire project and has already spent $295 million on it after inking the preliminary design contract in 2010. Once completed, the FGFA have to be mounted on India’s stealth air-to-air missile Astra along with Indo-Russian BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.
The cost of developing $600 million project MTA will be equally shared by the two countries. The MTAs are to be inducted in the Indian and Russian Air Force, apart from being exported to friendly countries by 2015. But the project has been delayed and it may not be before 2017-18 that the first flight will take place. Putin should address the FGFA and MTA delay if Russia wishes to seal other futuristic projects. For example, the two countries are contemplating jointly developing the mini version of BrahMos missile that will have a speed of 3.5 mach and carry a payload of 300 km up to a range of 290 km.
Russia itself is going in for rearmament programme following the tension over Ukraine and the standoff with NATO in Eastern Europe. Russian jets have repeatedly flown near the boundaries of NATO airspace in recent months. Moscow is planning to spend $500 billion for the modernisation programme. Russia’s defence ministry has signed a contract with a major state-owned aircraft manufacturer to modernise over 50 of its high-speed MiG-31 interceptor jets that can intercept any target from cruise missiles to satellites. In all these areas, India stands to gain if agreements for joint productions are pushed through.
Hopefully, Moscow and New Delhi will play no balancing game against each other. However, in a veiled signal, Putin sent his Defence Minister to Islamabad before he visits New Delhi. Interestingly, Modi will receive US President Barack Obama in New Delhi after his summit with Putin.
Surely, Modi’s ‘Make in India’ campaign and his thrust on attracting US investments in the defence sector worry Russia. The proposed Indo-US Defence Trade and Technology Initiative aims not to be transactional but to free India from import dependency while seeking co-production and co-development in weaponry that would boost Indian security and economy. It hopes to create jobs and make India a competitive exporter. Several big-ticket projects are afoot. Clearly, behind Modi’s perceptible message is that neither the US nor Russia would be able to satisfy his growing ‘Make in India’ demand. Instead of feeling hurt, Russia should update the scope of cooperation, especially in high technology area to help itself expand business beyond the Indian market.
Russia is no stranger to the Indian market. Moscow has long transferred critical technology to India for both research and production purpose. The SU-30 aircraft and T-90 tanks and the BrahMos missile are made in India under license. However, Russian investment has been merely $1 billion in India. Barring a few firms like Systema, Rusal, Severstal, Kamas and others, Moscow has done little to explore India’s non-defence sector. Of course, firms like Systema went through problems which are finally in the process of resolution. Moscow should unveil some signature investment and joint manufacturing projects to join the ‘Make in India’ initiative.
Moscow should understand that India-Russia ties are not comparable to the one India wishes to have with the US. Russia no longer holds traction in the matters of trade, investment and business. No Indian diaspora lives in Moscow or elsewhere where Modi could deliver speech like the one he did in New York or Washington.
But to be sure India is also mindful about the risk of relying totally on the US, for it could restrict access to civil-military technologies unless Modi transforms India to become a client state like Pakistan. Should India decide in future to lift the moratorium on nuclear weapons testing, the US will surely snap all cooperation with India. New Delhi cannot risk the geostrategic calculations where the US can never replace Russia politically and operationally in case of a national crisis. Moscow, in the past, effectively checkmated any misadventure by China or Pakistan to undermine India’s territorial integrity. It is not surprising that the West still maintains an ambiguous policy on India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir.
India should also not forget Russian assistance in civil nuclear cooperation and civilian space partnerships, especially when others had shunned nuclear commerce with India. However, challenges for implementing the proposed roadmap of constructing the remaining 12 nuclear power reactors after the completion of Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant need to be cemented.
However, the truth is that the two-way interactions between India and Russia have gradually fallen. The annual trade turnover targeted to achieve $20 billion by 2015 still hovers around $10 billion. The reasons are well known, but actions to bridge the huge information gap, language barriers and stiff travel regulation by Russia that impede growth are lacking. The Russian institutions and think tanks are poorly funded, and even the field of once popular Russian studies in India and Indology in Russia is almost dead.
Russia’s vast technological potentials, its natural resources spanning mammoth territory remain unexplored by India — now filled by Chinese and South Korean companies. Efforts and provisions are required to take Indian entrepreneurs to these places. The ONGC has made a tardy investment of $6.5 billion in Russia’s Sakhalin 1 and Imperial Energy. It is a story of missed opportunity. Indian companies could have entered Russia’s known sectors, such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, telecommunications, infrastructure and fertilisers and reaped dividend.
Over hundreds of agreements signed under the ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’ remain on paper since 2010. New addition to these will be India’s proposed Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement with Customs Union (CU) and jointly exploring resources in the Arctic region.
Despite scepticism, there is trust and comfort factor in the India-Russia relationship. India and Russia share similar perspectives on regional and global issues. Irrespective of what Modi hopes to gain from the US and other powers, he may see ties with Moscow pivotal to India’s core national interests. He is unlikely to deviate from the standard Indian foreign policy chart of walking the tight rope on the West-Russia conflicts. Russia supports India joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a full member. One can hope that this happens when Modi goes to Ufa in Russia in July 2015, unless China stalls the process as retaliation to its entry into SAARC recently by India.
Putin comes to India against continued Western pressure and sanction on Moscow over its Ukraine policy. It is time for New Delhi to push for bigger items. Only a blockbuster deal ie for laying a proposed $40 billion long-distance oil and gas pipeline from Russia to India can turn around the trade prospects to touch over $100 billion. India needs energy and Russia needs to counter Western sanctions. It is only energy diplomacy that can replace the waning defence business and bring rationality in India-Russia relations. Not just ONGC but private sectors should grab Rosneft’s offers in Siberian oilfields. Of course, challenges of routing through Pakistan remain critical. Russia and Kazakhstan can nudge the issue and start with TAPI pipeline. India must not reject any feasibility of pipeline routing through Central Asia and China across the Himalayas. An energy deal could help prevent Russia from leaning too much on China — a critical policy challenge for India.
Russia’s growing military ties with Pakistan is an area of concern. Moscow cannot escalate sale of weapons to Islamabad but it is deliberately sowing the seeds for misunderstanding — perhaps a calculated riskIJ Putin’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu promised to translate the Defence Cooperation Agreement with Islamabad into tangible terms that will pave the way for politico-military understanding, including on regional security matters. Shoygu praised the expertise of Pakistani Armed Forces in fighting war against terrorism and said, “The world community wants to do business with Pakistan now.” Of course, courting Islamabad is linked to Moscow’s current isolation over the Ukraine standoff. Russia has already sold MI-35 Hind helicopters but its appetite for arms trade with Pakistan could grow.
Russia’s concerns over extremism and flow of narcotics from Afghanistan into Central Asia and Russia are palpable. Apart from upgrading military preparedness in Central Asia, Moscow is viewing Pakistan as an important determinant in regional calculations. Moscow sees no radical change in the Afghan balance of forces in 2014 aftermath. Instability could continue with no real prospect for a peaceful settlement. This time, Russia’s position may no longer be identical to India’s. It may take a more nuanced approach, bordering somewhere between Indian and Pakistani Afghan policy.
A shift of position could affect regional issues, including on Kashmir. Russians are old players and they know how to play around with regional geopolitics. By supporting the entry of India and Pakistan into SCO, Moscow may be contemplating playing a bigger game. In 2000, Putin told the Indian Parliament: “The same organisations that were creating problems in the Indian state of J&K were behind problems in Chechnya and other parts of the Russian Caucasus.” Will Putin express the sentimentIJ
The Crimea issue had put India in an awkward situation. The world still wants to know New Delhi’s stand. But what should worry India most is Moscow’s use of Western sanctions as an impetus to curve its own Asia pivot. The recent mammoth energy deal in addition to a $400 billion Siberian gas pipeline agreement clinched in May will enable China to receive 68 billion cubic gas annually. The new gas deals could significantly offset Russia’s reliance on the European market. By helping to ease Russia’s isolation, China not only hopes to reduce dependency on coal and get clear energy through a relatively safer supply route option than seaborne shipments. The mega deals also help Beijing mollify Moscow, which is wary about China’s over $40 billion Silk Route projects in Central Asia. Moscow’s aligning with the East helps Beijing alter the balance of power and offset US-Asia pivot policy.
For India, like in the maritime domain, the vast pipeline network — intersecting with growing Sino-Russian, Sino-Pakistani and now Pakistani-Russian partnerships — could adversely impact its interests. Russia is planning to sell cutting-edge S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems to China that can bring down stealth bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles. With all this in the background, Modi will need to find more diligent and smart ways for keeping Russia on India’s side.
The writer is former Ambassador and expert on Eurasia