The PCA verdict, which went against China, has set the stage for more tension in one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints, opines RAJARAM PANDA
The South China Sea (SCS) has the potential for triggering a major regional conflagration, which unless resolved by diplomatic means might engulf the world with debilitating consequences. India and Vietnam shall share common viewpoints on this important issue when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Vietnam early September and holds discussions with the country’s top leadership.
The nature of the dispute centred on the body of water in the SCS took a dramatic turn following the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on July 12, which was in favour of The Philippines and against China’s expansive claims to rights in the SCS. The court rejected Beijing’s “historic claims” over the disputed water body and the so-called “nine-dash line” figured prominently in discussions, and therefore violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
The ruling that went against China meant its international image was dented as a responsible power in the region and upholder of law. The ruling is expected to stoke chaos in Southeast Asia and has set the stage for more tension in one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints.
VIETNAM’S REACTION
Vietnam welcomed the PCA verdict and strongly supports the settlement of disputes in the SCS by peaceful means, including legal and diplomatic processes, refraining from the use or threat of use of force in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the law of the Sea (UNClOS), and also reaffirms its sovereignty over Paracel and Spratly Archipelagoes.
like any law-abiding nation, Vietnam expects China to honour the tribunal’s ruling and not unilaterally ignore the legitimate concerns of neighbouring countries, lest a chaotic condition is created, endangering the peace not only in the Asian region but in the entire world. Besides, Vietnam will confront China if its national interests are violated.
Vietnam has history of supporting its stance as it has successfully driven out the French, Chinese and the US in the past and earned freedom the hard way. It is certainly not expected to surrender without a fight. Vietnam has all along enjoyed the support of India in this historic journey of struggle to earn its freedom from foreign aggressors. This bonding has solidified over the years.
Without naming China, India advised nations against use of force and called for self-restraint, saying that all parties must abide by “UNClOS, which establishes the international legal order of the seas and oceans”. After the ruling was issued, a statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs said disputes should be resolved “through peaceful means without threat or use of force and self-restraint must be exercised in the conduct of activities that could complicate or escalate disputes affecting peace and stability”.
Even when India claimed that China was not playing by international rules, China’s reactions to the ruling showed its double standard when it insisted to the rules on India’s membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), but ignored its treaty obligations when it came to the UN-backed tribunal’s orders.
There is a larger context in which the ruling can be seen in this perspective. The ruling could also embolden other claimants in the ASEAN grouping, such as Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, to be more pro-active to assert their claims. India might use this new situation to enhance its balancing role, which is likely to be welcomed by its ASEAN partners.
With regard to the movement of Indian naval warships, the PCA ruling now gives rights to freely move through the region under UNClOS without informing the Chinese. Earlier, China had raised the issue that India must notify it in case its warships pass through those waters, as China claimed almost 80 per cent of the water body as its own.
In July 2011, a Chinese naval ship got into a confrontational mode when it allegedly noticed an Indian Navy ship, INS Airavat, passing through the waters claimed as its own by China. Though India unofficially informed China if any of its warships were moving in the “disputed” waters in order to avoid a possible stand-off, it was under no legal obligation to do so.
Also, India is likely to take advantage of the PCA ruling to invigorate its Act East policy to strengthen its maritime footprint in the region, thereby reassuring its friends in Southeast Asia of its support based on the principle of freedom of navigation and rules of law. This will enhance India’s credibility and reputation as a maritime power in the region.
INDIA-VIETNAM TIES
India and Vietnam find themselves on the same page on the SCS issue. The eighth Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) and fifth Strategic Dialogue between the two countries held on August 2, and led by Preeti Saran, Secretary (East) from India, and Vu Hong Nam, Vice Foreign Minister from Vietnam, saw a striking convergence of perspectives between the two sides on the SCS. The statement issued by the MEA stated thus: “Both sides also discussed recent developments in the maritime domain and the need for peaceful resolution of all disputes in accordance with accepted principles of international law.”
India-Vietnam bonding in the economic and strategic domains also bodes well for India’s long-term ambition of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Not only does Vietnam support India on this but also sees it as a key player in its military modernisation efforts, besides deepening economic ties. Vietnam values India’s possible role as a balancing power in the region. The strategic dialogue has set the stage for Modi’s forthcoming visit. This shall be keenly watched in other Asian Capitals, including Beijing.
The problem with Beijing is that it sees the relationship between any two Asian countries with which it may have differences as a plan to work against its interests. No wonder, Beijing feels uncomfortable with New Delhi-Hanoi bonhomie, which it sees as a conspiracy to contain its rising aspirations. Beijing also sees India’s growing understanding and sharing perspectives with other countries such as Japan, the US, Australia and some ASEAN member countries in the same prism of containment strategy. That is unfortunate. India has taken pains to repudiate such conspiracy theories consistently articulated by state-controlled media in order to create a favourable public opinion within China. India need not be deterred by such false propaganda and should work in close cooperation with its friendly countries in the region. Vietnam is already seen as a crucial cog in India’s wheel of promoting its Act East policy.
INDIA’S BAlANCING ROlE
India will soon set up a satellite tracking and imaging centre in southern Hanoi, giving access to pictures from Indian earth observation satellites. China is uncomfortable due to this as the satellite station would cover China and SCS as well. Bilateral defence cooperation, including the sale of BrahMos missiles by India to Vietnam, sharing of intelligence, joint naval exercises and training to counter insurgency and jungle warfare are issues that are likely to figure prominently in Modi’s talks with the Vietnam leadership.
As a rising regional power with benign intent, India need not be found wanting in meeting the expectation of its friendly Asian countries to play the role of a balancing power as well as a security provider. Such a role shall help India enhance its regional profile and maintain peace and stability in the Asian region.
The writer is Indian Council for Cultural Relations India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan