A new expert report on Afghanistan has warned the Obama administration that the United States risks “snatching defeat from the jaws of something that could still resemble a victory” if it accelerates withdrawal of forces between now and 2014, and under-resources America’s commitment to a post-2014 Afghanistan.
The report, authored by retired US commander General John R Allen, former Undersecretary of Defence Michele Flournoy and defence analyst Michael O’Hanlon, does not question the planned withdrawal by 2014-end, but only cautions against an accelerated pullout even before that because of “frustration with President Hamid Karzai or domestic budgetary pressures”.
It calls upon Washington and Kabul to clarify as soon as possible the size of the residual US military presence in Afghanistan after all combat troops withdraw by the end of next year, stressing: “Given Afghanistan’s historical fear of abandonment, we believe the psychology of such a clear American commitment of intent would be all to the good. It would also help persuade NATO allies to firm up their own plans.”
The experts believe that for two to three years after 2014, the US may need several thousand personnel to help the Afghans finish building their air force, their special operations forces and certain other enablers in medical realms, in counter-IED capability and in intelligence collection. They reckon this to be an additional bridging force, over and above the “Enduring Force”.
The report, titled ‘Toward a Successful Outcome in Afghanistan’ and released by the Center for a New American Society, urges Washington and Kabul to clarify and solidify their commitment to an enduring partnership as soon as possible. “This would reduce incentives for hedging behaviour in Afghanistan and Pakistan and contribute to a constructive atmosphere for the campaigns leading up to the crucial April 2014 Afghan presidential election,” it says.
The three experts stress the point that future American policy on Afghanistan should be motivated “not by a desire to cut losses but with a determination to lock in hard-fought gains”.
As for Pakistan, where the Taliban insurgents retain their sanctuary, the report touches upon its “regrettable” activities, but stresses that
Pakistan will remain a major player in the final outcome in Afghanistan, adding: “Washington’s approach in this situation should be to continue to work on interpersonal relationships among key leaders, as well as coordination and cooperation along borders where enemies of one country or the other often cross.”
On the present State of Taliban insurgency, the report asserts that the US and its partners have degraded the Taliban enough and built the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to be strong enough.
Yet, it concedes that the insurgents are still capable of high-profile suicide bombings, small-scale attacks and intimidation tactics at the local level.