The political storm in Pakistan seems to have passed even as the stalemate continues. The people have won in the end; by refusing to participate in Imran Khan's farcical march, they have shown signs of maturity. PM Nawaz Sharif — a pawn in the hands of the Army — has perhaps learnt his lesson the hard way, says Ashok Behuria
The political storm in Islamabad is beginning to abate as Parliament chose to stand solidly behind Nawaz Sharif and his Government. Those who scripted the storm — taking the country to the precipice, hoping against hope that a political tsunami would sweep the Nawaz Government out of power — must be very unhappy. It is one of the rarest cases in Pakistan’s history that the silent majority finally overcame a howling minority baying for Nawaz’s ouster from office.
While Imran Khan and Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri — the principal visible actors in the high-voltage drama that went on for more than two weeks in the red zone of Islamabad — strained their vocal cords hoping to draw people to the streets in millions, they could muster only a crowd of tame supporters that turned out only in hundreds or thousands at the most. Those unseen (if not completely unknown) puppeteers pulling the strings from behind the scene had no other option but to give up in the end.
A visibly sick Javed Hashmi, number two in Imran’s party, who left his hospital bed to be beside his leader, true to his reputation as a rebel (baghi), finally shared his anxiety about the unseen directors of the farcical show. Parliament solidly backed Nawaz’s Government in a joint session, and an opposition ‘jirga’ — as the media called it — negotiated well with both Imran and Qadri.
All this has led to the much-awaited anti-climax as overwhelming majority of people heaved sighs of relief across the country. But does this mean victory for forces of democracyIJ Does it indicate that the Army has lost the plot and made the final retreatIJ The whole episode deserves closer scrutiny.
The Beginning
To start with, following the May 2013 General Elections in Pakistan, Imran had alleged that the results had been stolen from his party. His party had performed much better than in previous elections and had overtaken the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in terms of absolute votes. Of 46,217,482 votes polled, Imran’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) secured 7,679,954 votes (16.6 per cent) compared to PPP’s 6,911,218 (15 per cent). Pakistan Muslim league emerged as the largest party, securing absolute majority in Parliament with 14,874,104 votes (32 per cent).
Imran suspected foul play at almost all levels — the Election Commission, the judiciary and the caretaker Government. He was insistent on recounting of votes in four constituencies — NA-110 Sialkot I, NA-122, lahore IV, NA-125 lahore VIII, and NA-154 lodhran I.
Of these, in NA-122, Imran had lost out to Ayaz Sadiq, now speaker of the National Assembly by 8,872 votes. In NA-110, former PMl-N Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif had defeated the PTI candidate by over 21,000 votes. In NA-125, the incumbent PMl-N Minister for Railways, Khawaja Saad Rafique, had defeated PTI stalwart Hamid Khan by 18,921 votes. In case of NA-154, Pakistani businessman entrepreneur and PTI candidate Jahangir Tareen had lost to an Independent candidate by about 10,000 votes.
For Imran, the performance of his party was much worse than what he had anticipated and he attributed his failure to “massive electoral fraud by PMl-N”. He went to the extent of saying that the 2013 elections were the worst-rigged in the history of Pakistan.
looking at the high profile PMl-N candidates, who had won from three of the four constituencies, the Nawaz Government was not quite keen to reopen the cases, and was visibly dragging its feet over the issue, even if the Electoral Commission had gone ahead with about 400 electoral complaints, about 65 of them from PTI. It was a clear case of underestimating the political opponent. However, Imran had his doubts about the commission enquiring into the cases in an impartial manner under the PMl-N Government. He was raising this demand off and on throughout the last 14 months, until he decided to go all out and announce a long march. But the issue is why he chose this moment and could he have done it all by himselfIJ
Why the unrest nowIJ
There was, in general, a storm building up on the horizon, which went largely unnoticed by Nawaz and his men. Nawaz’s imperious behaviour, his overdependence on a coterie full of his relatives, his regular absence from Parliament sessions, failure to revive the economy, and worsening power situation began to be discussed widely. A sense of popular frustration with the Government, especially in urban centres, seemed to build up quietly, even as the Sharif brothers tried their best to invite foreign investment, particularly from China ($32 billion), and repair relationship with the US and immediate neighbours.
Against this backdrop, when popular dissatisfaction was beginning to shape up, forces opposed to Nawaz were waiting for an opportune moment, which came their way in the wake of police excesses against demonstrators from Qadri’s party Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) on June 17, at Model Town in lahore, which led to death of seven persons. From that time onwards, all hell broke loose. Imran’s PTI was waiting for such a chance, as were other dark forces within the military establishment.
Civil-Military tension
Ever since Nawaz came to power, there was a common view in Pakistan that the Army did not want him in office. Nawaz treaded softly to begin with. He included military chiefs in his newly formed Cabinet Committee on National Security (CCNS), which replaced the Defence Committee of the Cabinet (DCC), and hoped that civilian induction of Army leadership into the apex decision-making structure on security would help reduce their antipathy towards him and his Government. That was not to be.
Even if Nawaz saw off Ashfaq Parvez Kayani rather peacefully and picked Raheel Sharif as Kayani’s successor, the tension continued. Perhaps Raheel may be having some sense of personal loyalty towards Nawaz, but the institutional distaste for Nawaz and his policies is perhaps too widespread within the Army for it to reconcile to Nawaz’s leadership. That may be the reason why the Army, as a whole or at least powerful sections within it, choose pawns like Imran and Qadri to show Nawaz his limits.
To begin with, Nawaz disregarded the Army’s perspective on handling militancy in the tribal belt. He chose to talk, which the Army contemplated as a military operation. Ultimately, militants provoked the Government and the Army to launch Operation Zarb-e-Azb.
It is also well known that the Army has reservations about Nawaz’s policies towards Afghanistan and India. It would not like Nawaz to build bridges with the ruling dispensations in these countries. It is believed that Nawaz’s coming to India to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the new PM was also not received well by the establishment. His decision not to meet the separatists had riled the Army even more.
Nawaz Government’s indecision over Pervez Musharraf was another irritant for Army. The Army leadership was also quite upset about Nawaz paying a courtesy visit to the nursing home where noted journalist Hamid Mir was recuperating after being attacked allegedly by people associated with the ISI. Together, there was enough reason for the Army to look for willing collaborators in their “minus-one” dislodge Nawaz project.
Pawns reemployedIJ
On the eve of 2013 elections, there was widespread suspicion in Pakistan that some invisible powers in Pakistan (read ISI) were priming forces to stall Nawaz’s return to power, which had started looking inevitable towards the end of 2012.
This is how the rumour went: Qadri was flown in from Canada and Imran was propped up from inside to put up a close fight against Nawaz. The electronic media also joined the fray by anointing Imran as the prime ministerial candidate. As it has been mentioned earlier, PTI managed to reap a good harvest but could not stop Nawaz from coming to power.
In the changed circumstances, it was perhaps considered opportune to re-energise Imran and Qadri to launch a protest movement against Nawaz. Other pro-military forces like PMl-Qaid, Awami Muslim league (AMl) and some religious outfits like Majlis Wahdat Muslimeen (MWM) were always ready to play ball with the Army. Once the movement gathered traction, other mainstream parties were expected to join.
Demands: A Total Overhaul of System
A close look at the demands presented by Imran and Qadri reveals that they were framed in a non-negotiable manner. They asked the Government to own up all the allegations made by them, resign and pack up, leaving the door open for them to rebuild Pakistan.
The six main demands of Imran were resignation of the Prime Minister, electoral reforms, re-election to follow reforms, establish a neutral caretaker Government, resignation of all members of the Election Commission who managed the previous election, those responsible for election rigging be imprisoned and tried under Article 6, which deals with high treason.
The 10-point demands of Qadri were quite rhetorical and aimed at establishing a democratic society which would result in rule of the people, alleviate poverty, cater to basic needs of the people, transform society, eradicate terror, and protect the rights of minorities and women. Qadri would argue that such re-engineering could only be possible if the national and provincial Assemblies were dissolved and the Government relinquished its power, making room for fresh elections and election of a new Government.
The demands were thus designed to force the Government to quit. The calculation of those scripting the drama was simple — driven by a sense of optimism — that there would be enough gravitas to floor Nawaz or at least corner and weaken him.
There was a hope that when Imran would start his march from lahore on the Pakistan Independence Day on August 14, and as he would move towards Islamabad along the Grand Trunk Road, people of Pakistan would pour out in millions and take Islamabad by storm, forcing the Government to quit or at least compelling Nawaz to resign.
Army protects the Protesters
Both Imran, the voluble maverick, and Qadri, the self-indulgent rabble rouser, perhaps failed to feel the pulse of the people. As they started from lahore, it became quite clear that at its peak the crowd did not go beyond 20,000-25,000, and waned after that.
After reaching Islamabad, despite raising their decibels, both leaders could hardly inflate their ranks. Even PTI legislators in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa refused to oblige Imran and resign from their seats. With a lot of effort, Imran could send in the resignation letters of PTI members of the National Assembly. In spite of such a poor show, the two leaders decided to go on, lodged in their containers, while their supporters outside grew restive.
Imran’s intentions became even clearer when he decided to continue with his sit-in in front of the Parliament, even if the Government panicked and agreed to accept five of the six demands made by him. The whole movement now revolved around resignation of Nawaz, which was impossible for any self-respecting Government to concede.
In this context, Nawaz’s decision to hand over the security of Islamabad, the capital city, to the Army was intended to force it to behave. He entrusted the Army with the responsibility vide article 245 of the Constitution to “act in aid of civil power” and provide protection to the red zone in the capital city, which houses all important institutions of democracy — the Parliament house, the Supreme Court, the Government secretariat, and Prime Minister’s house.
As the crowds grew restless and Imran threatened to march into PM’s house, the Army spokesman was forced to issue a Twitter statement that sanctity of these institutions must be upheld at all costs.
However, revealing its collusion with the demonstrators further, the Army decided not to intervene despite active provocation from the leaders, even after the crowd attacked the Government buildings. Finally, when the police responded to the acts of violence by the protesters, which resulted in the death of four persons (seven, according to Imran), the Army issued a statement condemning armed action and chose to admonish the Government to resolve the deadlock without use of force. When the protesters entered Pakistan Television (PTV) office and vandalised the premises, the Army rangers were seen to be dealing with them in the kindest manner possible.
Coming to the Army’s response to such a sponsored crisis — it waited in patience for the movement to gather momentum. In the meanwhile, the Army chief did meet PM thrice within a week and even had meetings with Imran and Qadri, but failed to persuade them to stop their protest. Cynics in Pakistan held that the Army enjoyed the spectacle and did not want to resolve it so soon. Otherwise, one wink from the Army chief would have been enough to bring the protest to a close.
Hashmi’s revelations, Army on back foot
There was little doubt that Imran could not have gone ahead with his protest without assurances or direction from some quarters that he would not be harmed. Imran’s threat to the Government that the ‘umpire’ was looking at everything and “will raise his fingers” clearly pointed towards the military.
However, putting all speculations to rest, the president of Imran’s party, Javed Hashmi, known for his impeccable democratic credentials, walked away from the demonstration over the issue of ordering PTI followers to march into the PM house. later, Hashmi attended the joint session of the Parliament and revealed that Imran was all along guided by unseen forces in his protest march and there was a sense of consternation among the sponsors that both the leaders could not muster enough popular support.
The Army in a press release following Hashmi’s statements said it was not in any way connected to the protest. It “categorically rejected the assertions” that the Army and ISI were backing PTI/PAT in the ongoing political standoff “in any way”. It stated further that it was “an apolitical institution” and talked about “its unequivocal support for democracy at numerous occasions”.
The Army was clearly on the back foot and the more it denied its role, the more the analysts in Pakistan seemed convinced that it was the main architect of the drama being enacted at the Parliament Square.
Parliament unites
In a rare show of unity, perhaps for the first time in the history of Pakistan, almost all mainstream political parties, except PTI, came together and rallied behind Nawaz, reiterating their support for democracy. During the joint session, the Opposition leaders criticised Nawaz severely for his lapses but conveyed a clear message to the protesters that such undemocratic methods would not be allowed to succeed.
Simultaneously, a reconciliation committee comprising mainly opposition parties —including Jamat-i-Islami, PTI’s alliance partner — negotiated with Imran and Qadri to bring the protests to a halt. Such demonstration of unity was a loud call to the Army to not tamper with the ongoing democratic experiment in Pakistan.
Irresponsible Media
The media community of Pakistan played a big role in exaggerating the importance of the march. It was shocking to see most of the electronic channels prosecuting and passing verdict on Nawaz Government, brazenly siding with Imran and Qadri and throwing all decency to winds.
However, it was refreshing to see the print media advocating restraint and behaving responsibly. It is necessary for the media community to engage in soul-searching once the drama ends and help the process of democratic transition consolidate, rather than invite praetorian forces to make a mockery of it.
Future portents
As things stand today, it appears on the surface that the threat to Nawaz’s Government may have been averted, and the Army is on the back foot. The news of Chinese President contemplating cancellation of his upcoming trip in September may have also discouraged mischief-makers from going ahead with the comic circus.
Nevertheless, the damage has been done even though the plan has not succeeded fully. Nawaz has realised the consequences of acting against the wishes of the Army. Reports in Pakistani media say he has already assured the Army that he would not conduct his foreign and security policy without its consent. He may spend the rest of his tenure doubly conscious of the long shadow of the Army on the politics of Pakistan.
On the positive side, the Nawaz Government has been jolted out of its sense of complacence. It has now learnt that coterie politics will not work and it cannot afford to be arrogant and dismissive about the Opposition.
Nawaz must be thankful to the Opposition for having forgiven him despite his haughty and overbearing style of functioning — all in the name of saving democracy and stopping a possible coup. If he is clever, he must implement Imran’s saner suggestions, conduct a thorough investigation into the allegations, invest in electoral reforms to strengthen democracy and progressively roll back Army’s role in politics by bringing about structural reforms in a gradual manner.
The people of Pakistan have won in the end. By refusing to participate in Imran’s farcical march, they have shown signs of maturity. After all, if the crowds would have started building up in Islamabad, no amount of speeches in Parliament could have saved Nawaz. The baton and bayonet would have hijacked democracy.
Had they poured out in greater numbers, it would have boosted the morale of the military and its pawns. Nawaz, a pawn in the hands of the military, has perhaps learnt his lessons the hard way, so have other mature politicians in Pakistan.
This is good news for Pakistan that unlike in the past, there is no temptation to rally around the Army in moments of crisis and project it as a saviour, only to topple the Government and come to power. let us hope, it will last.
The writer is the coordinator, South Asia Centre, and a Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)