The odd-even experiment may not have brought down the air pollution drastically, but it did manage to solve another big problem that the Capital faces — that of congestion. Experts tell SHAlINI SAKSENA that the scheme, combined with other short and long-term measures, can prove to be a boon for a city struggling with road mismanagement
An advanced city is not a place where the poor move about in cars; rather it’s where even the rich use public transportation
— Enrique Peñalosa londoño, Mayor of Bogotá
This is easier said than done for Delhi. It requires a carrot and stick policy. The stick could be in the form of car-free zones, higher parking fee, congestion tax and low emission zones. The carrot could be a safe, reliable and convenient public and para-transit system.
During the odd-even fortnight, many new passengers were seen in buses and the metro. Some may continue to use public transport, if the quality of the service improves. Delhiites love their cars, but to beat the constant traffic jams, they are willing to adapt and even have the odd-even back on a permanent basis. But for now the formula is back from April 15 to 30, 2016.
But to introduce the formula on a permanent basis, there is a need to address many issues, like the inadequacy of present transport system and the utter road mismanagement. According to Dr Anup Bandivadekar, Passenger Vehicles Program director of the US-headquartered International Council on Clean Transportation, a more sustainable transportation system in Delhi, or for that matter anywhere else, should provide better access to mobility, improve road safety, and minimise the energy and environmental impact. “Doing so in a socially equitable manner (improving mobility access for the physically challenged) is a complex problem, with no silver bullets.
If we look at the status of the transport system in Delhi, we can only come out with a mixed scorecard. For example, Delhi has successfully expanded bus and metro services, and transitioned buses, autos and taxis to run on CNG. At the same time, congestion is severe, walkability is poor, riding a bicycle is a hazard. The list goes on. In that sense, the transport problem in Delhi is no different from other big and medium-sized cities. The specifics of the situation are different everywhere. Delhi and its surrounding regions are more motorised than the rest of the country. Without a thorough assessment, I would speculate that Delhi is in a better shape than other parts of India because of the tremendous level of public scrutiny and attention it receives. Nevertheless, the transport system in Delhi remains far from sustainable,” Bhandivadekar says.
To tackle this challenge we need to put into place strategies aimed at improving public (buses and metro) and para-transit (autos, cycle rickshaws and mini buses) infrastructure and operations, coupling the efforts to improve urban road safety with efforts to promote non-motorised transport (NMT) and reduce air pollution.
One is told that the time and technology is ripe for implementing low emission zones (lEZ) in Delhi. lEZs can be a useful tool with multi-pronged objectives — reducing congestion, lowering emissions, promotion of hybrids and electric vehicles etc. Successful implementation of an lEZ also requires co-ordination with better tracking of vehicles and their in-use emissions status so that preferential treatment can be given to cleaner vehicles, improved road space allocation, parking reforms and encouraging genuine ride-sharing/carpooling efforts.
“The odd-even formula is never going to be a panacea for Delhi’s air pollution problem. Based on the data that I have seen, there is good reason to believe that the odd-even experiment did result in reducing particulate concentrations by 10-13 per cent (Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal maintains it was 20-25 per cent). The experiment reduced the severity of the air pollution episodes to some extent. What it tells us is that it should be part of the Delhi Government’s toolkit to deal with periods wherein the air quality is expected to deteriorate significantly. At the same time, without inherently cleaner vehicles and fuels conforming to BS-VI norms or better, even a reduced number of vehicles on the roads will continue to pollute dramatically. Moreover, Delhi will have to take a hard look at how to create appropriate incentives so that the vehicle fleet is more manageable,” Bhandivadekar explains.
What is needed, he tells you, is a comprehensive air quality management system that looks at not just vehicular emissions, but also emissions from other sources like biomass burning, industries, etc. But the severe nature of air pollution situation means that near-term action is absolutely essential. In December-end 2015, the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) issued directions for pollution control and improving air quality in Delhi NCR. There are some sensible ideas in that list.
“For example, installing vapour recovery systems at all refuelling stations in Delhi NCR should be accomplished on a priority basis. But even this and other measures proposed by MoEF will take time. While steps like these are being implemented, and we continue to wait for BS-VI vehicles and fuels, it should not be a surprise that more restrictive actions will be needed. Whether it is odd-even, or Supreme Court directives banning diesel car sales temporarily, or restricting entry of trucks inside Delhi, these measures seem harsh at times, but we may have painted ourselves into a corner in this case. There are no easy fixes,” says Bhandivadekar.
Many will argue that the entire purpose of odd-even was to improve air quality but there was not much improvement. However, one can’t deny that besides reducing air pollution to a certain extent it did manage to decongest the roads. So much so that the time taken to travel a 15-km stretch was reduced to 35 minutes from over an hour; more so if there was a traffic jam which is a common phenomenon in the Capital. One is told that it is not so much about air pollution as it is about the city being extremely dusty.
Experts at the Central Pollution Control Board opine that there is not so much pollution as there is dust in the air. There are several reasons for this. First, Delhi is land-bound and the weather is calm. For any dust or air pollution to get cleaned there is need for strong winds which is not there in the Capital. Second, the city only gets 40 days of rain. This means that the top soil is loose, causing dust. Third, there is lot of construction. All these factors lead to increase in the particulate matter.
One is also told that there are several things that people can do to reduce their time on the roads. Carpooling; it would be good to see 75 per cent occupancy in each car rather than a lone driver. Take the route where one has to spend least amount of time on the road. Go out only if it is necessary; try and do all your work in one day rather than go out every day. These are short term measures that people can take combined with the odd-even.
These can be strengthened by improvement in public transport systems which should eventually help in removing the exemptions given during the last phase of the odd-even scheme. “A strengthened, reliable, and safe public transport system can ensure inclusion of two-wheelers and women under the gamut of the odd-even scheme. Metro rail system should be made more accessible by enhancing the last mile connectivity. The informal modes of transport including the non-motorised options need to be promoted. To further strengthen the odd-even, information technology needs to be employed to develop mobile applications for promotion of taxis on pooling basis. Put congestion pricing on vehicles on a typical congested zone/road, which are plying with lower occupancies. More offices could look at flexible staggered working hours and work from home facilities. Purchase of new vehicle could be made conditional on an older vintage car being scrapped,” Sumit Sharma, fellow & area convenor of Centre for Environmental Studies Earth Science and Climate Change Division with The Energy and Resources Institute says.
But these are long term measures. What does one do in the interimIJ It is essential now that air pollution is recognised as a major problem which is spread across different pollutants and a variety of sources. It requires detailed analysis and proactive planning rather than damage control. The measures which are at present being planned may help to an extent, but will certainly not be sufficient for tackling the problem of this scale. With such a high growth rate, the emission characteristics and source contributions change over time. Hence, Delhi along with whole NCR needs regular five year air quality management plans based on advanced scientific research for effective air quality control.
The odd-even scheme can provide some air quality benefits; it can’t be solely relied upon for achieving air quality standards. There are many other interventions that are needed to be taken in the vehicular sector and others for effective long term air quality control. “There are many other sources which impact the air quality in Delhi, significantly. Rather than just restricting the analysis to Delhi, it is time now to realise that there are many sources in the wider NCR region which contribute to deterioration of air quality in Delhi; further research and mitigation plans need to be developed for air quality control in NCR,” Sharma tells you.
Within the transport sector, heavy duty vehicles (trucks and interstate buses) have the highest share in vehicular emission inventories of Delhi. While, other vehicles moved to BS-IV standards, trucks still remained on BS-III standards because of their nation-wide movement. The recent announcement of Ministry of Road Transport and Highways to shift directly to BS-VI vehicle emission standards (including trucks) is a very important step for longer term reduction in vehicular emissions and improvement in air quality. However, timely and proper implementation of these standards needs to be ensured.
“With this, it is equally important to reduce emissions from in-use vehicular fleet in Delhi-NCR. For this we recommend centralised inspection and maintenance centres with enhanced capabilities of in-use vehicle emission testing. This also requires random testing of in-use vehicles on type approval norms on which the vehicle is tested at the manufacturing stage,” Sharma opines.
Fleet modernisation and old vehicle scrappage programmes need to be developed to enhance early influx of newer and less polluting vehicles. Most importantly, with the introduction of BS-IV and BS-V quality of fuel in 2017 and 2019, respectively, the old diesel vehicles can be retrofitted with tail-pipe emission control technologies like Diesel Particulate Filters for substantial control of tail-pipe emissions. Studies to test the technical and financial feasibility of these retro-fitment programmes should be initiated now.
There is greenhouse gas emission from passenger vehicles as well and this depends on how many vehicles we have, how efficient those vehicles are, how carbon-free is the fuel that those vehicles use, and finally how much those vehicles are used. “Policies that address each of these dimensions are needed to reduce GHG emissions from passenger vehicles. Any policies that discourage the number of vehicles on the road, whether it is congestion pricing, or better public transit alternatives, help. India has adopted a fuel economy standard for 2017 and 2022. This is a positive step, although the standards are not very strict, and will improve fuel economy of new vehicles by roughly two per cent per annum. Adopting a vehicle tax structure that encourages more fuel-efficient vehicles and discourages fuel guzzlers could strengthen these standards. Delhi could give additional tax incentives for hybrid vehicles and strengthen electric vehicle incentives. The State Government could commit to purchasing CNG, hybrid and electric vehicles for its fleet,” Dr Anup opines.
Then there is usage of diesel generator sets which is very prominent in surrounding towns of Delhi, especially in commercial areas. The generator sets use similar type of engines as are used in diesel vehicles and emit significant quantities of PM and NOx emissions. The time has come when NCR needs to be supplied with 24x7 electricity to ensure that these sets are not used. The option of retrofitment with tail-pipe control devices can also be explored for the sets. There are a number of industries operating in surrounding towns of Delhi and both technology and enforcement measures need to be taken for control of industrial pollution. Agricultural burning of residues is another factor which contributes to the problem seasonally. A business model needs to be developed for waste to energy conversion using biomass gasification technology.
The city is also impacted by many coal-based power plants which emit PM, NOx and SO2 emissions. There are about 2,000 brick kilns in NCR which contribute to PM emissions. Refuse burning is another common practice in NCR which adds to the pollution loads. Agricultural residues in the rural regions in and beyond NCR are burnt seasonally, which emit atmospheric pollutants and deteriorate air quality. Several households in rural areas and slums use biomass for cooking which not only pollutes indoor environments but also add to ambient air pollution.
Even though the share of private cars towards prevailing PM concentrations is small (<5 per cent) based on several source apportionment studies, the percentage effect of odd-even scheme on PM could be small, but when the concentrations are as high as in Delhi, the absolute reductions in PM2.5 concentrations are significant which can help reducing the health impacts.
“However, this can’t be regarded as the solution to bring air quality within the prescribed standards, because the share of other sources like other vehicle categories (HDVs, two-wheelers etc), power plants, DG sets, biomass burning (agricultural residues, refuse, firewood), and dust (from roads, construction activities) is very significant and sector specific strategies will be required for overall control,” Sharma tells you.
In 2014, a high powered committee was set up to come up with a plan to decongest the Capital, constituted under the directions of Urban Development Minister. The deliberations took place among representatives from Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Home Affairs, National Highway Authority of India and 15 other departments. It was agreed by the committee that the primary solution to decongesting Delhi is prioritisation and promotion of public transport and insist that people should shift towards it. The action plan — a nine point strategy included parking pricing and management; multi-modal integration at metro stations, railways and ISBT; bicycle sharing system with cycle track throughout the city; road retrofitting as per street design guidelines; bus service improvements; BRTs corridor development; integrated road network — new bypass/elevated roads; intelligent transport system and capacity building programme.