Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was in Delhi for the first time since his elevation as chief of BJP’s campaign committee. He had a meeting with the Planning Commission as well as his senior leaders. There are reports that his Delhi visit kickstarted the party’s all-India campaign.
A visit to Ayodhya was on the cards — he was to attend a VHP function — but the trip got cancelled. There was confusion over whether Modi will go to Ayodhya or not. When the invitation was issued by the VHP, his office did not decline or confirm. Meanwhile, the VHP spokesperson issued a statement that Modi was scheduled to be a part of their function. Source say that Modi’s advisors have never been in favour of him visiting Ayodhya, because that will give Modi’s opponents an opportunity to call the visit ‘playing the Hindutva card’. His advisors want him to concentrate on the development agenda.
Meanwhile, Ashok Singhal, Praveen Togadia and Baba Ramdev — all of whom were waiting at Ayodhya to welcome him —were disappointed.
However, Modi’s Punjab visit on June 23 is right on track. He will be participating in the birth anniversary function of Jan Sangh founder Dr Shyama Prasad Mukherji. From there, he will go to Mumbai.
Convenor woes
When the Janata Dal United (JD-U) broke away from the BJP last week, JD(U) president Sharad Yadav resigned as NDA convenor. Since the BJP doesn’t have many alliance partners, all eyes are on Punjab Chief Minister and Akali Dal chief Parkash Singh Badal as the next convenor. The post has traditionally been held by an alliance partner of the BJP.
When Atal Bihari Vajpayee was Prime Minister, the NDA comprised of 24 political parties with then Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu as its convenor. When Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party parted its ways with NDA, the alliance’s senior leader Sharad Yadav was given the post. Today, the BJP has only three NDA partners — the Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and Haryana Janhit Congress.
There is no leader of stature who can be made convener. Former Chief Minister and senior Shiv Sena leader Manohar Joshi is an option but Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray is unlikely to allow this. In such a situation, Badal is the only option — he is a senior leader acceptable to all and Akali Dal is one of the oldest allies of the BJP.
Jaya’s left turn
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa has given the BJP a big jolt by deciding to support CPI leader D Raja for a Rajya Sabha seat. Without her support, D Raja couldn’t have become an MP. This move has brought the left and Jayalalithaa closer.
Both had fought the last Assembly elections together. Now, once again, they have come together, giving rise to speculation that Jayalalithaa may be tilting towards a Third Front. The left had been looking for a leader for the front and it now appears that their search has ended. For them, Jayalalithaa is the answer to West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
The BJP was banking on Jayalalithaa, especially after Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar broke away from the NDA. Also, she had congratulated Modi when he was made BJP’s election committee chief. But, if she sides with the left, she can’t be with the BJP. In comparison to Mamata’s dream of forming a Federal Front, the chances of a Third Front are greater. This gives an indication about who the Third Front will support at the Centre.
Debate on
A debate is raging in the BJP and JD(U) on who insulted and betrayed senior party leader lK AdvaniIJ Nitish alleges that it was the BJP who had betrayed its veteran leader. The BJP has countered the allegations by raising the George Fernandes issue. There are reports that some BJP leaders had said that when the party fought the election with Advani as Prime Ministerial candidate, the party lost.
On this the JD(U) retorted that Vajpayee was the party’s Prime Ministerial candidate three times before he finally became Prime Minister, so Advani should get one more chance.
The BJP said that it was Nitish who had betrayed Fernandes and hijacked the party. The party has alleged that at the time of the party’s presidential elections, Nitish had influenced election officer Anil Hegde which led to Fernandes’ defeat. The party also said that Nitish settled a score with the late Digvijay Singh — then an Independent MP representing Banka in the lok Sabha — and Arun Kumar, two aides of Fernandes.
Name dropped
Birender Singh, Rajya Sabha MP from Haryana, who was supposed to take oath as Minister in the recent reshuffle, didn’t take oath. Sources say that Birender’s name was on the list of Ministers supposed to be part of the Cabinet. In fact, the list sent to the President had his name. The mystery is not whether his name was on the list but why and how was it removed at the last momentIJ
Some party leaders say that a controversial CD that showed up Birender in poor light was the reason he was denied a Ministerial berth. However, nobody has divulged the contents of this CD. Others say that he was dropped at the last moment two of the four new Cabinet Ministers couldn’t be from same community — Jat. So, Sisram Ola’s name was finalised and Birender’s struck off.
However, this argument doesn’t hold much water as the names of both leaders made it to the list together.
Sheila rides easy
The Congress has made things easy for Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit. She will not face any challenge in the November Assembly elections. Ajay Maken, who resigned last week as Minister for Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation and who is a known Dikshit baiter, has been made general secretary and given a bigger role to play. This means, he will stay away from Delhi politics. He has been made media incharge and given the responsibility of selecting a committee that will distribute tickets in the coming Rajasthan Assembly elections.
Dikshit’s second opponent is JP Agrawal. His wings, too, have been clipped. Agrawal was hoping that after Maken he could be made a Minister from Delhi quota. The present Ministers from Delhi — law Minister Kapil Sibal and Minister for Women and Child Development Krishna Tirath are Dikshit supporters.
With Maken and Agrawal out, Dikshit has become even more powerful. Though Agrawal is State Congress president, there is not much he can do. When Mahabal Mishra was in the running as Delhi’s State president, Dikshit had managed to stop him in his tracks.
New battleground
The Congress and the BJP have made Uttar Pradesh their new battleground. The BJP has given charge of the State to Modi’s close aide Amit Shah. The Congress has given responsibility of UP to Madhusudan Mistry who is also from Gujarat. In other words, UP has become a mini Gujarat for now.
Earlier, it was rumoured that Shah would face Modi’s fierce opponent, senior Congress leader Digvijay Singh. But now he has to fight with a Gujarati strategist like himself. Mistry has been trained on the RSS line because he is Shankar Singh Vaghela’s find who was with the RSS for 40 years. Vaghela was instrumental in Mistry’s entry into the Congress. He is a veteran when it comes to working at the ground level and strengthening the organisation. He is also an expert in chalking out strategies. He has run an NGO for several years. He has the ability to bring to fold those who have been marginalised.
While Shah and Mistry fight it out in the State, it will be a show of strength for Modi and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi who will be the driving force behind the Congress campaign. But political analysts opine that the greatest challenge facing Shah and Mistry is put place their respective parties into the arena. Many say that the two national parties will be fighting for the third and fourth places. The real fight will be between the SP and the BSP.
lalu in upbeat mood
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief lalu Prasad Yadav is on cloud nine these days. This is because the BJP and the Janata Dal United (JD-U) have parted ways after 17 years of alliance. He is clearly foreseeing his return in Bihar. Now his party’s social engineering can be effectively strengthened. The RJD has a powerful vote base of Yadav voters and now that lok Janshakti Party president Ram Vilas Paswan has sided with lalu, Paswan’s votebank of around four per cent also adds to lalu’s kitty, taking up his vote base to around 20 per cent in the State.
Victory in Maharajganj by-polls has made it clear that the Thakurs are also with the RJD.
This leaves the Muslim voters. If the Congress enters into and alliance with the RJD then in the 2014 lok Sabha elections, Muslims will vote en-masse in favour of RJD-lJP-Congress alliance. Even if Congress doesn’t form an alliance with RJD, the Muslim votes will go to lalu.
In such a scenario, Bihar will go the Uttar Pradesh way where the Muslims had voted for the SP, the BSP and the Congress only to prevent senior BJP leader lK Advani to gain ground. In a similar fashion, to stop Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar, Muslim voters will support the RJD, the JD(U) and the Congress.
This situation benefits the RJD the most because it has strong backing from other communities as well. As compared to lalu, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s position is weak. With Modi at the helm as chief election campaigner for the BJP, Nitish’s ultra Backward Class votebank will be burgled as also the Forward votebank who will now vote for the BJP.