The question doing the rounds in political circles. is: Will Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav wait for a year to fulfill his ambition of becoming Prime Minister and let the lok Sabha elections be held on time, or, will he withdraw support from the UPA-II Government and pitch for early electionsIJ
The Congress is not very sure of Mulayam’s intentions. They can’t say with conviction that he wants to bring down the Government. Sources say that he is looking for a perfect opportunity. If he withdraws support now, there will no effect because the Congress has BSP chief Mayawati’s support.
The UPA-II has 240 MPs. Apart from this, Mulayam, Mayawati, RJD president lalu Prasad Yadav and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha president Shibu Soren are supporting from outside, taking the strength to 288.
If Mulayam withdraws support, the number will fall to 265 which is eight short of a majority. Mulayam knows that the Congress will not find it difficult to muster support of eight MPs.
Sources also say that if Agriculture Minister and Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar supports Mulayam’s move, then UPA-II will be in trouble. But Pawar is not in a hurry, thanks to the political situation in Maharashtra. Party insiders say that even if the NCP withdraws the support of its eight MPs, the Congress will manage to garner support of around 20 Janata Dal-United MPs.
Antony next pmIJ
Is Defence Minister AK Antony all set to become the next Manmohan Singh for the CongressIJ Will he become Prime Minister if UPA-III comes to powerIJ These are some of the questions doing the rounds within the Congress. The reason for this speculation is that Antony has been very active with party work and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has immense faith in him. On two occasions, Rahul has said Antony is his guide.
Insiders say that Antony’s name has been in the air since he was appointed chairman of the committee to finalise alliance partners in various States. He has, in fact, laid a lot of emphasis on going for an alliance with the left Front that has been given serious thought by the High Command.
Recently, Antony went to meet a CPM politburo member. The Congress may be able to get left support due to Antony who is also in talks with lalu. There are also reports that it is only because of Antony that the Congress is still non-committal in forming the Government in Jharkhand.
His biggest asset is his honesty but being a Christian may stand in his way to the top, a fact he is well aware of. That is why he openly supported Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee president Ramesh Chennithala, a Nair. By supporting Chennithala, Antony hopes to get support of all Nairs if need be.
The fallout
The Maoist attack on Congress leaders has raised a question on whether a larger State should be divided into two. The division of many States had been put on hold with leaders citing examples of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. The recent attack in Chhattisgarh has put a full stop on the creation of States, at least, for now.
At present, the loudest voice is for the formation of Telangana from Andhra Pradesh. The problem is that Telangana is left-dominated. Since pre-Independence, left parties have had a stronghold on the region and even today, Maoist supporters participate in movements and rallies for the creation of Telangana.
Experts feel that if Telangana is created, Maoists in the region will become just as powerful as they are in Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand. A similar noise is being made for creating Vidarbha from Maharashtra. The Gadchiroli district of Vidarbha is dominated by Maoists. If Vidarbha is created, their activities in the area will increase.
Invite from pak
Pakistan Muslim league (Nawaz) leader Nawaz Sharif is all set to take oath as Prime Minister on June 5, 2013. But even before Sharif has taken oath, India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent former ambassador and special envoy Satinder K lambah to meet Sharif. What talks happened is not known, giving rise to rumours that Singh may visit Pakistan soon.
But External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid has said that it is too early to talk about such a visit.
The talks that have started with Sharif will continue and only when Sharif is in agreement with what India has to say will Singh go to Pakistan.
Yet rumour is that a November visit is in the pipeline. Sharif has said that in Pakistan, it is the Prime Minister who gives the orders and not the Army. This means that Sharif has full control over the Army and the ISI and an official invitation to Singh will be made soon.
Cong’s ensnare mode
Though the Congress has not started its election campaign in Uttar Pradesh, it will do so soon. like last year’s elections, the party is eying the Muslim votebank of the Samajwadi Party.
In the last election, it was due to strategic voting by the Muslims that the Congress won 22 seats. This time also the party is expecting a similar outcome.
Speculation is rife that the Congress will rake up the issue of Mulayam’s promises to the Muslim community. The fact that the party has raised questions over the death of terror suspect Khalid Mujahid is an indication of things to come.
Minority Affairs Minister K Rehman Khan has also raised questions on the working of the SP Government and has said that the Congress has accepted Sachar Committee’s 60 recommendations out of 70. He also said that talks on three more proposals are under way and will be accepted soon.
Khan has announced that in the next session, the Government will bring the Waqf Bill so that action can be taken against those who usurp waqf property.
Mamata in spotlight
In West Bengal, a notification has been issued for the first phase of panchayat elections. The election, slated for the first week of July, will prove to be a litmus test for Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. That is the reason why the main Opposition party, the left Front, has started its attack on her Government.
The left has been claiming that Mamata may go for an alliance with the BJP. The CPI-M leader and former Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee has, at a public function, said that the BJP and the Trinamool Congress have already talked of an alliance.
Even Congress leaders say that Mamata is all set to return to her old ally. She has been attacking the Centre on several issues and this has triggered speculation that the TMC is going the BJP way.
But the TMC has denied all this. This is because it has 28 per cent Muslim voters in the State whom Mamata does not want to alienate.
However, Congress and left leaders feel that all the talk of a possibility of a tie-up (between the TMC and the BJP), will compel minority voters to vote in their favour.
Maha’s third angle
For the past several years it has been a BJP-Shiv Sena versus Congress-NCP fight in Maharashtra. The Congress-NCP alliance has always won but this time, due to Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray, there may be a triangular fight.
The BJP and Shiv Sena, in order to counter the attack from Raj, is thinking of forming an alliance. But there are reports that Raj is not ready for a pre-poll alliance. The MNS is all set to fight the elections with an alliance with smaller parties. Republican Party of India (RPI) president Ramdas Athavale has joined the Shiv Sena already.
Prakash Ambedkar, grandson of Babasaheb and president of RPI Bahujan Mahasangh, has floated the Maharashtra Democratic Front to bring smaller parties on one platform. The BSP also has some influence in small pockets in the State. So it will be right there in the race. The SP also has a presence in the State. It will leave no stone unturned to leave a mark in Maharashtra. Even Arvind Kejariwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has announced that it will contest all 48 seats in the State.
What’s Digvijay up toIJ
Congress general secretary Digvijay Singh has said that if his party High Command puts forward Power Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia’s name as Chief Ministerial candidate for Madhya Pradesh, he will extend his full support to Scindia. But Congress leaders, who are divided into many factions, are not buying this statement, the reason being a recent survey. This survey says that Digvijay is in the running for the Chief Minister’s post and has many supporters.It is another matter that Scindia scores over him.
State president Kantilal Bhuria and Congress legislative party (ClP) leader Ajay Singh are close to Digvijay. Scindia and Urban Development and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kamal Nath have separate factions. Former State president Suresh Pachauri has yet another group.
In such a scenario, Scindia, Kamal Nath and Pachauri may come together. But before that they will have to figure out Digvijay’s game plan. leaders in the anti-Digvijay camp are in search of information which can prove that his motive is to puncture Congress’ campaign in Madhya Pradesh so that Scindia doesn’t succeed.
The group has tried to extract information from Digvijay’s supporters but has, so far, been unsuccessful.