Southwest Monsoon is likely to hit the coast of Kerala, the gateway to Indian subcontinent, between May 28 and 30, two-three days before its normal onset date of June 1.
According to private forecasting agency Skymet, the southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on May 28 with an error margin of +/-2 days. Prior to this, the monsoon will reach Bay Islands and North Andaman sea on May 20. It will cover Sri lanka and Central Bay of Bengal by May 24.
According to forecast, a low pressure in Arabian sea is likely to push monsoon along the west Coast and interiors of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. “Pre monsoon showers also likely to pick up a pace over South Peninsula prior to the onset of Southwest monsoon which will be deciding factor for the onset of monsoon. This will be earliest onset since the year 2010”, it said.
Monsoon reaching a tad early is expected to provide relief to many parts of country which are reeling under severe heat wave and drought like conditions. Heat wave conditions prevailed in a few regions of Vidarbha and southern parts of Madhya Pradesh. Several parts of Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have recorded temperatures above 45 degree Celsius on Saturday. The temperature is expected to rise further in the coming days.
The normal monsoon onset date is June 1 when it reaches Kerala.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) as well as Skymet have made a forecast of “normal monsoon” this year.
Predominantly an agrarian economy, favourable monsoon has bearing on the economy and market indices in India. Announcement of a arrival of southwest monsoon date has brought cheers to farm sectors, apart from other macro economic factors buoyed investors sentiments. A good monsoon is crucial for India, where 44 per cent of total food production is dependent on rain-fed farming and the June-September southwest monsoon brings 80 per cent of annual rainfall.