The United States is behaving like a class monitor, treating India like a disobedient backbencher. The imposition of steep tariffs and the linking of trade to foreign policy has exposed how fragile India’s diplomatic calculations with the United States have under President Donald Trump. India and the United States have been negotiating a trade agreement since March 2025. However, the talks have now culminated in a damaging outcome: a 25 percent tariff slapped on key Indian exports, including automobiles and jewellery.
This tariff, which could affect nearly half (about $85 billion) of India’s exports to the US, marks a sharp blow to Indian industry, foreign direct investment, inflation control, and consumer interests. The much-touted Modi-Trump friendship which was boasted about in circles close to the government and in media channels complicit to the ruling class has turned out to be just talk. The belief that closeness with Trump would translate into tangible benefits for India has proven to be dangerously naive. Far from being rewarded, India has ended up among the most harshly treated countries, with no product-level exemptions, not even in sectors deemed strategic like pharmaceuticals, electronics, and energy.
Tariffs on India are the sixth highest among targeted nations. In comparison, the US struck more lenient deals with developed industrial economies like the European Union and Japan, agreeing to just 15 percent tariffs. No matter what the government says, it is crystal clear to anyone who has been following these developments that PM Modi didn’t see this coming. In fact, till just days before the announcement, the Indian government’s public stance was that discussions were on track and that there might be a few more weeks in August to finalise a deal. Hours after the Lok Sabha saw Prime Minister Modi refrain from crediting President Trump for the pause in Operation Sindoor.
Trump fired back publicly taking credit for the ceasefire and linking it directly to trade expectations. Trump’s tweet, again asserting that he had “stopped the war,” was a diplomatic pressure tactic. By connecting peace efforts to trade benefits, Trump made it clear he expected a quid pro quo. The appropriate Indian response could have been more strategic: A statement published earlier acknowledging Trump’s concern and outreach, while firmly reiterating the Indian position that disputes with Pakistan can only be settled bilaterally. Instead, by failing to manage the optics and the narrative, the government allowed Trump to appear as a broker of peace while simultaneously punishing India economically. The Indian government could neither stand up to Trump’s bullying effectively nor garner economic benefits from him. This miscalculation has resulted in what is arguably the lowest point for Indian foreign policy in recent decades. For over 30 years, India has aimed to maintain a careful balance aligning more closely with the United States while managing a hostile China-Pakistan axis. Today, India finds both Washington and Beijing aligned on matters concerning Pakistan.
The US also seems to be dictating to India what it can do and what it can’t by imposing a penalty in addition to the tariffs imposed as a punishment for buying oil from Russia. To make matters worse, the President has announced a fresh partnership with Pakistan, stating it will work with Islamabad to develop its “massive oil reserves.”
This is a bewildering assertion, considering Pakistan holds only 0.02 per cent of the world’s oil reserves and just 0.4 per cent of global refining capacity. It is a move esigned more for symbolism and provocation than economic sense. This turn of events exposes the strategic miscalculation of assuming that Trump would be a friendlier president to India than Biden. The Indian government must now accept that this assumption was flawed, and that personal rapport between leaders cannot substitute for hard diplomacy or consistent national strategy. It also highlights a worrying lack of preparedness in New Delhi to manage leaders with egos as towering as Trump’s. This is particularly surprising, given the apparent camaraderie between Modi and Trump during the latter’s previous tenure. How did relations with the United States sour so dramatically despite all the bonhomie? The time has come to go back to the drawing board for a comprehensive review of India’s foreign policy strategy.
India must also demonstrate that it cannot be bullied by economic threats and it most definitely must defend its agricultural and micro sectors and resist external pressure that threatens national interest. After repeated diplomatic miscalculations by the ruling dispensation, the time has come to remind the world that India won’t be taken for granted.
(The writer is MP, Rajya Sabha President INTTUC, West Bengal)