Notwithstanding the exit poll predictions which have indicated that the BJP would either get a majority of its own strength or emerge as the single largest party in the 288-member house, Maharashtra on Saturday waited with bated breath for the counting of votes polled in Maharashtra Assembly polls, scheduled for Sunday.
While the counting will start at 8 am on Sunday, the initial trends are expected after 9 am. Given that the EVMs were used in all the 91,000 polling stations across the State, the counting is expected to get over in the entire by 12.30 pm to 1 pm. The first of results can be expected around 10 am.
Altogether, 63.13 per cent of the 8.35 crore voters had exercised their franchise in Assembly polls to decide the fate of 4,119 candidates. The Beed bypolls, necessitated by the untimely death of BJP leader Gopinath Munde in June this year, were also held simultaneously.
The Congress has fielded a maximum of 287 candidates, followed by Shiv Sena(282),BJP (280), NCP (278),BSP (260) and MNS (219). The CPI and CPM have fielded 34 and 19 candidates respectively.
Wednesday’s Assembly poll outcome is likely to be a crucial test for the Modi wave, which his detractors had said was waning fast after the lok Sabha polls. Unmindful of the criticism, Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP’s campaign from the front and electrified the poll scene, by criss-crossing the State and addressed as many as 27 public rallies in a span of nine days.
The Assembly polls are also a litmus test for the Opposition Shiv Sena — which like the BJP — contested the polls on its own strength for the first time in 25 years-and its president Uddhav Thackeray, who led the party in a single handed manner, in the absence of his late father and Sena chief Bal Thackeray.
The poll outcome will also bring an end to the 15-year-long rule of the erstwhile Congress-NCP alliance. The two erstwhile Democratic Front partners broke their ties and went to the polls as separate political entities. But, both the parties have carried with them a huge baggage of anti-incumbency.
There is a lot of curiosity among both the political parties and people across Maharashtra as to the nature of verdict that the State Assembly polls will throw up on Sunday. Will it be it a clear or near majority for one political partyIJ Or will the polls throw up a hung AssemblyIJ.
If the BJP and its four smaller allies manage to cross the majority figure of 145 in the 288-member Assembly or even come close to hand shaking distance of 130 to 135 seats, then the next Government formation exercise will be a smooth affair. A new State Government is likely to be in place before Diwali.
However, if the BJP and its allies fall “30 to 45” seats short of a majority — a scenario that the rival political parties are predicting, then the Government formation will take fairly a long time — may be more than a week to 10 days. One can expect the new Government before the term of the current Assembly expires on November 8.
Though the BJP is fairly confident of the party and its smaller allies crossing the magic figure of 145 seats, informed sources in the party said that its leadership had readied Plan-B, in the event of the party falling short of numbers in a big way.
No wonder that the BJP’s upcoming leader and one of the chief ministerial contenders Pankaja Munde - who enjoys a very good rapport with Uddhav Thackeray - has gone on record saying that if the need arose, her party is open to seeking its erstwhile saffron alliance partner Shiv Sena’s support to form the next government in the state.
However, the Shiv Sena - which the various exit polls have said would bag anywhere from 56 to 88 seats - is so far non committal on the issue of extending its support to the BJP in the post-poll scenario. The silver lining in the cloud for the BJP is that the Sena has scaled down their pre-poll rhetoric that smacked of utter bitterness towards its erstwhile saffron alliance partners.
Nursing the fond hope of winning a maximum tally ranging from 90 to 100 seats, the Shiv Sena has already cosied up to the Raj Thackeray-led MNS which may not win more than a dozen seats even in a best case scenario. Another thing that is working in the Shiv Sena’s favour is that the NCP (with a predicated tally ranging from 34 to 40 seats) has shown keenness to team up with it. However, the Sena may have reservations about doing businessw with a scam-tainted Ajit Pawar of the NCP.
If the Sena realises that it cannot muster the requisite numbers on its own, then it will go back to its erstwhile saffron alliance partner. With its 25-year-long marriage having ended less than a month back, the two saffron partners have still a lot of bitterness between them. If anything, both parties will need face-savers to agree for a re-marriage.
The sections optimistic of re-alliance between the BJP and Sena cite the example of the manner in which the Congress and NCP came together in the 1999 Assembly poll-scenario, weeks after the Sharad Pawar-led party carried out a bitter campaign against AICC president Sonia Gandhi on the foreign origin issue.
If the BJP and Sena are to cobble a post-poll alliance between them, the post of chief minister will be a major bone of contention between them. For, both the parties have set their eyes on the coveted post. While the Sena has repeatedly declared its president Uddhav Thackeray is the chief ministerial candidate, there are at least five contenders for the post in the BJP.
Among the BJP’s chief ministerial contenders, the State BJP President Devendra Fadnavis is the front-runners. The others are late senior BJP leader Gopinath Munde’s daughter Pankaja Palve-Munde, former leader of Opposition in Maharashtra legislative Assembly Eknath Khadse, his counterpart in the Council Vinod Tawde and senior party leader Sudhir Mungantiwar. Though Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has opted out of the race, he is considered a dark horse.
Meanwhile, the erstwhile ruling Congress is reconciled to sitting in the Opposition for the next five years. A blame game has begun within the State Congress circles as to the factors and leaders that contributed the party’s impending debacle in the polls.
Senior Congress leader Narayan Rane, who has set his eyes on the post of the leader of the Opposition in the State Assembly, has already turned the heat on former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan, who is another major contender for the post, for his outturn statement on the eve of polls.