Hunt is on in Uttar Pradesh a constituency from where Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi can fight the 2014 lok Sabha elections. Speculation is rife that the party may zero in on lucknow, the constituency of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
But political analysts feel that this seat is not safe for Modi. In lucknow, there are 30 per cent Muslim voters. Then there are Brahmin, Vaishya and Kayasth voters. If the Samajwadi Party fields a candidate from any of these castes and the Congress supports the SP candidate, a lot of effort will have to be put in to ensure that Modi wins lucknow.
Modi supporters have, meanwhile, surveyed Varanasi and Gorakhpur seats as well. In the last election, veteran BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi stood from Varanasi and won. Yogi Adityanath, a BJP MP, had won from Gorakhpur.
It will be easier for Modi to win from these two constituencies. But there is a catch — either Joshi or Yogi will have to give up the seat.
Another team is touring eastern UP to look for a seat from where it will be easy for Modi to win. Sources close to Modi say that he will fight from UP and Gujarat.
The dilemma
Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi has been meeting party MPs from different States. The feedback that he has is mixed. While the Rajya Sabha MPs insist the party should go it alone in the 2014 General Election, lok Sabha MPs are in favour of an alliance.
leaders from Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh have suggested that the party must go it alone. Even though the party has an alliance with the DMK in that State, the scenario is likely to change just before the 2014 elections. Talk has it that DMK chief Karunanidhi is all set to fight the election alone.
Meanwhile, some leaders opine that Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha is a Congress ally and the equation should not be disturbed.
In UP, several partymen from Ajit Singh’s RlD are leaving him. An alliance with him will be of no use.
Party leaders in Andhra Pradesh have said that State incharge Ghulam Nabi Azad has said that the Congress should fight the election on its own.
So for now, Rahul is waiting for the Antony Committee report.
Alliance factor
For the BJP and the Congress, an alliance in five to six States is important. Though both the parties are gearing up to fight alone in these State, they are well aware that it will not be easy to win if they fight on their own. To counter the kshatraps, both parties need partners.
In Maharashtra, partnership between Congress and NCP is on the verge of a break. Both are gearing up to fight alone. The BJP’s dilemma is whether it should continue its alliance with Shiv Sena, whether Raj Thackeray should be added as its partner or whether a new partnership with Raj should be made and make a clean break from the Shiv Sena.
The BJP’s relationship with JD(U), in Bihar, is no better. If Modi takes on a bigger role in national politics, Nitish Kumar many snap ties with the party. The Congress’ dilemma with lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan continues. Many leaders are waiting for the BJP and JD(U) to part ways so that the Congress and JD(U) can form an alliance.
The BJP, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) formed an alliance to form the Government in Jharkhand, but now they have parted ways. While the BJP will go it alone, the Congress is looking for a possibility of a partnership with JMM. Even though the Trinamool Congress has parted ways with the Congress, it doesn’t mean that it will form an alliance with the BJP in West Bengal.
Hence, the speculation that the Congress and TMC will come together again.
Tie-breaker
Just before the last lok Sabha elections, Rahul Gandhi had addressed a Press conference in which he had praised Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. But in 2009, when the Congress parted ways with RJD and lJP, an alliance with JD(U) could not be formed. Senior party leaders, once again, want to go for an alliance with JD(U) for the 2014 lok Sabha elections.
A note has been sent to Congress president Sonia Gandhi stating that the party should only go for an alliance with RJD and lJP when all the possibilities to form a partnership with JD(U) fails. That is the reason why Finance Minister P Chidambaram talked about changes with regard to conditions to grant special status to a State and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh praised Nitish Kumar.
Interestingly, Governor Devanand Konwar who didn’t have good working relationship with Nitish Kumar has been removed.
The Congress hopes that an alliance with JD(U) can be formed when Nitish breaks away with the BJP. But if JD(U) breaks away from the BJP, it will go into elections on its own.
In upbeat mode
Congress leaders who are hopeful that the UPA will be back with UPA-III have reason to cheer. There is a speculation that YSR Congress may support the Congress after the elections.
The honorary president of YSR Congress and mother of YS Jaganmohan Reddy, YS Vijayalakshmi has said that she can’t form a partnership with a communal party like the BJP. Hence, she may extend support to the Congress. But she has ruled out any possibility of a pre-poll alliance.
There are two reasons for doing so. First, she want security for her family members, especially her son-in-law. Investigative agencies can tighten their noose on her son-in-law Anil Kumar. So, the statement has been made to appease the Congress. Second, she is keeping in mind the Muslim and Christian voters of coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema.
The Congress leaders opine that TRS will either form an alliance with Congress or merge with it after the formation of Telangana. With this move, the Congress will have 18 seats under its belt.
Meanwhile, with Jagan as its supporter, the Congress will have an upper hand in coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema.
Ec exercise
The Election Commission (EC) has been gearing for the delimitation of lok Sabha constituency before the next General Election. The delimitation was proposed for SC/ST seats; whether they should be kept reserved or not.
This has not been done for several decades, while caste structure of many seats has changed during this period. The problem is that the population census has not been completed yet. So, the EC doesn’t have any data to work with. Meanwhile, the EC has demanded village, sub-division and district level data of SC/ST.
However, the Government is in hurry and has directed EC to delimit the seats without the final population figures. An ordinance has been issued regarding the same. Officials conducting the population census say that it will take at least six months to prepare the data on SC/ST. But by then the country will be prepared to vote for the 2014 lok Sabha elections. It will be difficult for EC to take decision on SC/ST seats.
So, it appears that the delimitation of seats will be done only after the elections. Unless, the EC finds a way out.
For son rise
Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi has had a change of heart towards Badruddin Ajmal, leader of All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). Gogoi has been advocating an alliance with AIUDF for the 2014 lok Sabha elections.
Earlier, Gogoi was against any alliance with Ajmal and that was the reason why the Congress and the AIUDF didn’t form any partnership in the last two elections. Despite this, Ajmal has been supporting the UPA Government.
The reason for this sudden about turnIJ It is said that Gogoi wants to launch his son Gaurav Gogoi from Kaliabor seat. If Ajmal fields a strong candidate, Guarav will face problems. Though political analysts say that Hindu voters were polarised in favour of Congress in the last election. And if the minority voters polarise in favour of Ajmal’s candidate then majority voters will go with Gaurav. But the Chief Minister doesn’t want to take any changes and hence the talk of an alliance.
Different strokes for raj
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray has managed to establish MNS as the strongest Maratha party in the State. For this, he had to maneouvre things to his advantage.
First, he rejected a proposal put forth by his cousin and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. In a snub to Uddhav, Raj ruled out the possibility of an alliance with the saffron party to throw out the ruling Congress-NCP alliance in Maharashtra.
Second, he crossed swords with NCP leader Ajit Pawar. In fact, the MNS chief had dared Ajit Pawar, a couple of weeks back, to intimidate his party without the support of the State machinery, warning that stones could be thrown from the MNS side too. At many places, the supporters of both the parties clashed with each other. To show his strength, Raj challenged Ajit by saying that his workers would enter his house and beat him.
“If you have the establishment with you I have the displaced with me. They will enter your homes and beat you up,” Thackeray is reported to have said while addressing a public rally in Jalna.
It is said that Raj is doing politics in a true Maratha spirit. This has left the Shiv Sainiks in a dilemma. While Uddhav has a liberal view as far as non-Marathas are concerned and talking about the Hindutva, Raj is once again talking about Marathi manus.
By doing so, Raj is hopeful that the Marathi voters will break away from Shiv Sena and join his party. On the premise of this strategy he has decided not to form an alliance with any party before the Assembly elections in the State to be held later in the year. Interestingly, once the elections are over, he will, in all probability, join hands with the BJP.