This perpetual conflict between two sects of Islam, the Sunnis and Shias, is aggravating and might affect the whole world. SURENDRA KUMAR GUPTA explains how
It could be perceived that a World War is a military conflict involving more than two continents, in which at least 20 major countries participate in an attack against a common enemy. At present, there are three triggers for a third World War: The latest development and testing of Hydrogen bomb by North Korea, enhanced enmity between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the enmity of the Islamic world with the Israel.
In my view, the recent aggression exhibited by Saudi Arabia in executing its Shia cleric Nimr Al Nimr on January 2 along with breaking all diplomatic relations with Iran, and the sharp reaction that emanated from the Shia majority countries on this instance, have sown the seeds for a World War.
Simultaneously, the affinity of the United States with Saudi Arabia (a Sunni country) and Russia with Iran (a Shia country) and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad being a Shia leader, shall also escalate conflicting interests in the times to come. The third dimension added by the Turkish Government by crashing down the Russian jets has further added fuel to the fire between Russia and US.
In the name of crushing ISIS, US had been playing politics by providing full support to al-Nusra. The al-Nusra is an offshoot of al-Qaeda and enemy of Al Assad, had in fact been weakening Al Assad. However, Russia had been consolidating al-Assad’s position and its onslaught on ISIS in Syria was in-fact a praiseworthy step in the Syrian Civil War. The Muslim world is sharply divided between Sunnis headed by Saudi Arabia and Shias headed by Iran and the two world powers USA and Russia are respectively supporting these nations.
The Iraqi and Yemeni civil wars may also be seen in this context that internally, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, the Sunni countries, had been supporting the ISIS in Iraq, a Shia majority country. In Yemen too Saudi Arabia had involved itself and started unabated air raids since March 2015 against the Houthi rebels, a Shia terrorist group supported by Iran, that had been waging its war against Yemeni Sunni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.
In Saudi Arabia, Shia Muslims, who constitute about eight per cent of the Saudi population, faced discrimination in employment as well as limitations on religious practices. Shia jurisprudence books were banned, the traditional annual Shia mourning procession of Ashura was discouraged, and operating independent Islamic religious establishments remained illegal. At least seven Shia religious leaders — Abd al-latif Muhammad Ali, Habib al-Hamid, Abd al-latif al-Samin, Abdallah Ramadan, Sa’id al-Bahaar, Muhammad Abd al-Khidair, and Habib Hamdah Sayid Hashim al-Sadah — reportedly remained in prison for violating these restrictions.
The executed Shia Cleric Nimr Al Nimr had led strong protest movements in 2011 against the Saudi Arabian Government but it was non-violent. In July 2012, he was shot at and arrested by the Royal Police. In October 2014, he was sentenced to death on a number of charges including his alleged encouragement of foreign meddling within the territory of the kingdom. The mass killing of people by the Saudi monarchy had displayed its barbarity at its peak resulting in the execution of around 745 persons in 2014 and about 150 in 2015. Iran too has executed tens of thousands of its opponents till date since 1979.
This sectarian conflict between two sects of Islam, the Sunnis and Shias, dates back to the death of Prophet Muhammad in 632 AD when the dispute for the throne of Khalifa, after his death, went on and the killings started thereafter. The divide between the two is so sharp that lakhs of people have lost their lives in the various battles between them resulting in major loss of lives to Shias. Amongst the 1.57 billion strong population of Muslims in the world, the number of Shias are just 15-20 per cent of it and Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and Azerbaijan are their majority countries.
Sectarian violence persists to this day from Pakistan to Yemen and is a major element of friction throughout the Middle East. Tensions between communities have intensified during power struggles, such as the Bahraini uprising, the Iraq War, Yemini and the Syrian Civil War.
There had been a long war between Iran as a Shia nation and Sunni Saddam Hussein’s Iraq (Shia majority state) for eight years between 1980 and 1988 leading to a massive massacre and bloodshed wherein a million people were killed. In the past also, Shias suffered indirect and direct persecution under the post-colonial Iraqi Governments since 1932, erupting into full-scale rebellions in 1935 and 1936. Shias were also persecuted during the Baath Party rule, especially under Saddam Hussein. It is said that every Shia clerical family of note in Iraq had tales of torture and murder to recount. In 1969, the son of Iraq’s highest Shia, Ayatollah Muhsin al-Hakim was arrested and allegedly tortured. From 1979-1983 Saddam’s regime executed 48 major Shia clerics in Iraq.
Though sectarian tensions in lebanon were at their height during the lebanese Civil War, the Shia-Sunni relations were not the main conflict of the war. The Shia party/militia of Hezbollah emerged in lebanon during the lebanese Civil War as one of the strongest forces following the Israeli withdrawal in the year 2000 and the collapse of the South lebanese Army in the South. The tensions blew into a limited warfare between Shia dominated and Sunni dominated political alliances in 2008.
The small Persian Gulf island state of Bahrain has a Shia majority but is ruled by Sunni Al Khalifa family as a constitutional monarchy, with Sunnis dominating the ruling class and military, and disproportionately representation in the business and land ownership. Bahrain’s 2002 election was widely boycotted by Shias. Mass demonstrations were held in favour of full-fledged democracy in March and June 2005, against an alleged insult to Ayatollah Khomeini in July 2005.
Though the sanctions have just been lifted on Iran by USA and EU but its cold war with Saudi Arabia may become hot any time as the continuous persecution of Shias by Sunnis has already escalated the sectarian war to new heights.
Further, at this moment, when efforts for subsiding the conflicts in Syria and Yemen are on with the participation of Saudi Arabia, Iran, US, and Russia as the members on the negotiating table, the latest onslaught of Saudi Arabia is already having its implications in this process and shall be a setback for the negotiations.
Any further trigger from either side in this negotiation shall ignite the fire of a third World War with Sunni countries, NATO group, the US on one side, and the Shia countries, Russia, and China on other side. This is the high time when good sense must prevail upon the participating nations otherwise the third World War is inevitable in the near future.
The writer is former General Manager, BHEl, and a political analyst