Narendra Modi has not been jingoistic about China. To be sure, he has handled Gujarat's business ties, especially the diamond business, with China. Together with China, India could fill the strategic vacuum in West Asia for common good. Also, Indo-China relations need not be, and should not be, a zero sum game, and the time is ripe for settling differences with China. Global market dynamics may go a long way in making this an “Asian century”
New India meeting China
India’s lack of a robust foreign policy had long been marked, commented sharply upon and even scoffed at within and outside. The Nehruvian foreign policy thus far entailed a series of self-seeking lofty ideals and the country had to indulge in empty rhetoric with no tangible benefits. Half of the last century was lost in preaching moralistic and lofty precepts using jargons of no-alignment, self-reliance, strategic autonomy, independent foreign policy, third world solidarity (South-South Cooperation) et al. It had to follow half-baked leftist goals in the name of building a socialistic pattern of society. None had impressed the world nor did they do any good to improve the lives of over a billion Indians. Surely, they have severely constricted India’s stature (with its 5000 years long civilisational history) to grow and play a meaningful role in international affairs. Alternatively, foreign policy was conducted on certain myopic phraseologies — none contributed much to raise India’s stature and role globally. Instead, these precepts have given birth to a series of maladies that have limited our ability to compete in the world. Sooner we debunk them the better.
Foreign policy anyway tended to flounder in the absence of strategic thinking or “strategic culture”. None of India’s moral overtones has ever become substitutes for a prudent foreign policy. The indigenous “state-craft” enshrined in Kautilya’s Arthashastra was thrown out of the window and instead emulated a series of Western narratives only to distort our original thought process. The only statecraft mastered was the art of retaining political power. The interest of the nation and the “family” had become synonymous. Any divergent political thoughts including the nationalistic ones were scorned off as communal, reactionary, anti-national and with many other labels.
When things failed, attempts were made to play the ancillary role to the US, that is, for rebalancing or its ‘pivoting’ Asia strategy designed to offset China’s rise. Worse, of late, even the fringe internal political groups had started to assert their narrow agenda on the country’s foreign policy. For a while, even our administrative strategic thinkers seemed unable to arrest the failing of foreign policy.
In contrast, the Chinese, have constantly sought to transform and pursue their foreign policy interests with clarity and originality of strategic thought.
The BJP Government should seize the opportunity to make a fundamental paradigm shift away from the existing pattern and redefine India’s foreign policy concepts to meet the contemporary challenges and provide a direction that will make India the next superpower within the shortest span of time.
India’s response to the global challenges will remain hopeless if our understanding of the world problems is to derive from ideas from the West. Without original and clever thinking, India will remain behind others.
If “development” and “growth” becomes the primary agenda, our foreign policy should be tailored to achieve maximum goal. Foreign policy challenges abound but India’s policy priority should focus on firmly positioning itself in Asia — the future hub of global power. However, to that, we need to rethink about our relationship with China, for it is not only rising as a hard power but also as a soft power.
The Chinese had been traditionally India’s disciples and they have been receptive to our thoughts, ideas and culture. In fact, China was part of the Indian consciousness and the land “Cina” fell within the inner circle of the Indian Mandala.
Prime Minister designate Narendra Modi’s leadership should see whether the “containment” psyche could be changed to “cooperative” spirit, because wisdom lies not in containing or confronting China but in exploiting and benefiting from China’s achievements at least at the present juncture.
China’s new leaders have exhibited “positive vibes” and a surprisingly affable attitude towards India, missing since the 1950s bonhomie. To retrieve the past connectivity, they propose reviving “Maritime Silk Route”. Their new commitment for ties with India as China’s “strategic choice” and promise to resolve the boundary issue is a welcome move. President Xi believed that the Chinese and Indian “dreams” are inter-connected and mutually compatible.
Of course, China should also be sincere now and we should tell the Chinese clearly that their belligerent postures and assertiveness with neighbours would only create obstacle on the path of it becoming the next superpower.
President Xi Jinping, Premier li Keqiang and even Narendra Modi may stay in power for a full ten years until 2023. Together they can rebuild Asia. To be sure, pressures will mount not to be soft on China. Indian infrastructure plans would be viewed as provocative by the Chinese media. Both on the boundary and trans-border rivers issues, there could be an out-of-the-box thinking i.e. converting the borders into soft frontiers that existed for centuries.
The overarching obstacle is the trust deficit. Improved economic relationship could gradually help undo that. However, issues like the Dalai lama, Pakistan, and China’s outreach in South Asia etc continue to cause the mistrust. On the Dalai lama, we need to specify and make a cost-benefit analysis as to whether it is a spiritual and cultural investment or a strategic one. If we are mired into the next (15th Dalai lama) controversy, the prospect of mistrust if not conflict with China will be dragged along perhaps for another century. India should not be unduly worried about China’s influence in South Asia. China encirclement, forays into Indian Ocean et al, is a psychological issue that we must overcome. Of course, the US factor has contributed to our view about China. India must guard against Western powers using India as a lynchpin against China.
More needs to be done to remove the shadow of ignorance relating to each other. China seems to be taking steps to revive the spirit of that relationship. New channels of communication should be opened beyond leaders and diplomats to include people from every walk of life. Every effort must be made to revive the cultural confluence and take the relationship back to the pre-Bakhtya Khilji era.
If commerce drives the main engine agenda of foreign policy, it is necessary that India could be in the interim more receptive to Chinese proposals. Commerce cannot be carried out without connectivity. The new Government will do well to learn from China’s experience of spurring internal economic development with regional and global linkages.
Narendra Modi has not been jingoistic about China. To be sure, he has handled Gujarat’s business ties, especially the diamond business, with China. Modi’s urge for doing business with China was visible when he visited China and expressed admiration for its economic achievements. If Modi pursues the economic route there will be a greater chance for improving the relationship. Only Modi seems inclined to learning from China’s ability of spurring internal growth with regional and global linkages.
The convergence on a broad range of global issues exists and that should be taken advantage of to broaden understanding. Already, the globalisation process is infusing rivalries among nations. India and China together should seek to alter the rules of global economic competition beyond trade and investment. They should seek to remove strategic disparities, which is the main cause for global terrorism.
Together with China, India could fill the strategic vacuum in West Asia for the common good. Not just for energy security interests, the anarchy in that part of the world (radicalism, terrorism, arms proliferation and sectarian conflict) could spread across Asia through violent Jihadi means. Here, we need to keenly watch the residual impact of the evolving pattern of conflict of ideas and interests, manifesting for example in the form of the ‘Arab Spring,’ which have brought extremists to wield power in some West Asian states. India’s West Asia policy, therefore, should firmly be based on preventing chaos not only on the external front, but also for India’s own security.
The writer is a well-known Indian strategic thinker and a former Ambassador