India’s unprecedented missile assault on Pakistan on May 8 has not only redefined rules of engagement in the subcontinent, but also rattled the foundations of Pakistan’s military calculus.
The Missile Barrage that India mounted on Pakistan on May 8, was unprecedented. While civilian targets were scrupulously avoided, dozens of military installations ranging from airports, to terrorist homes, were devastated. Not surprisingly, this devastation was accompanied by the loss of a small number of IAF aircraft. The aerial bombing, primarily executed by missiles and drones, however, damaged or destroyed military airbases, and other military installations, apart from residences of terrorist leaders, across Pakistan.
It was an air strike, the likes of which had never been mounted earlier, in the Indian sub-continent. What inevitably followed was the announcement of a ceasefire on May 10, after a telephone call from Pakistan’s Director General of Military Operations to his Indian counterpart, proposing a ceasefire. Pakistan had seen the writing on the wall.
Indian Firepower was becoming damaging and even sometimes unbearable, necessitating an end to the fighting. These included missiles produced indigenously by India, which can hit targets accurately, both within and well beyond its borders, this has been the major factor in shocking Pakistan, which was equipped largely with Chinese weapons apart from US F-16 fighters. What has been significant is that a financially Bankrupt Pakistan chose to get into this situation. It provoked and forced India to respond strongly by revenging the internationally condemned, brutal killing of Indian nationals, holidaying in Pahalgam, at the heart of the Kashmir valley.
More surprisingly, the attack took place at a time when a financially bankrupt Pakistan, with an economic growth rate of just around 2.6 per cent had been constantly begging foreign powers and International Financial Institutions, to provide concessional financial assistance for the country’s continuing existence. Even its allies in the Islamic world are getting tired of being constantly approached for economic assistance, while Pakistan proudly proclaims to be the only country in the Islamic World with nuclear weapons.
It forgets to mention that the designs of its nuclear weapons and its missiles have been generously provided by the People’s Republic of China.
Adding to India’s problems is the fact that while Pakistan has a sane and sober Prime Minister in Shahbaz Sharif, his ability to play an independent role is limited politically by his elder brother and former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, who controls the ruling Party. Nawaz Sharif is quite evidently looking forward to grooming his daughter Maryam Nawaz, now Chief Minister of the populous Punjab Province, to be an early successor to the high Office of Prime Minister. In the meantime, Nawaz Sharif himself does not exactly enjoy the confidence of the army, to again assume the high office. It was the army that had him thrown out in the past. And right now, the army continues to play a dominant role in the national life of Pakistan. As far as India is concerned Nawaz Sharif who coauthored the Kargil conflict has to be dealt with very carefully, though he is unlikely to repeat his Kargil misadventure.
It is evident that apart from the limitations in the power of civilian rulers in Pakistan, the country now has a pathologically anti-Indian army Chief General Syed Asim Munir Shah, (popularly known as Asim Munir), who suffers from a pathological hatred for India, and all things Indian. This has been particularly surprising as his Mentor and predecessor General Bajwa is known for restraint in relations with India. One aspect of General Munir’s tenure is that it has increased, now that he has been promoted to the rank of Field Marshal by the weak Shahbaz Sharif Government. The politically weak and economically bankrupt Shahbaz Sharif has been praised for his “exemplary role” in the current “conflict” with India. Oddly enough, while the Pakistan Air Force can claim some contribution in recent developments and shootouts with India, the contribution of the Pakistan army has been virtually nil. It stood by watching developments on its borders with India. It was paralysed by the devastation caused by Indian missile attacks before the Head of its army proposed a ceasefire in a telephone call to his Indian counterpart.
General Munir would be a great benefit to India’s international interests. His vicious and crude anti-Indianism will not exactly impress either the US or other responsible powers. Moreover, the Pakistan army under his command did not perform spectacularly in recent years, even during the recent Indian attacks on Pakistan, in retribution for the killings of Indian nationals in Pahalgam. It remains to be seen if the PAF which has performed reasonably well in recent years will relish what must have been the spectacular and crude performance of an immature and somewhat adventuristic “Field Marshal,” who will seek to directly and fully control it. It also remains to be seen how the “Field Marshal” will react to the sentiments of the restive Pashtuns and Baluchis both in Pakistan and from neighbouring Afghanistan. India should meanwhile also be prepared for increased Pakistani efforts for promoting cross-border terrorism.
The promotion and growing powers of an immature and rash “Field Marshal” Munir are also unlikely to be welcomed by the Western World, which has worries about the security, safety and possible misuse of threats to use nuclear weapons. His rash behaviour makes him a dangerous figure who would seek to completely control Pakistan’s Army, Navy, Air Force and nuclear arsenal. Despite this an irritated President Trump chose to honour General Munir with a Presidential luncheon, evidently after not relishing India’s denial of his self-proclaimed claims of a key role in promoting a mutual withdrawal, well after India had accomplished its aim of retribution. At the end of the day, a weak Pakistan political leadership facing continued economic failure can hardly benefit from its activities when controlled by a weird Field Marshal whose country was shaken by India’s devastating operations using “Made in India” rockets and missiles to inflict heavy damage.