It may be premature to assume that the spirit of ‘Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai’ is back and that Panchsheel would once again become the guiding principle of relations between India and China as in the 1950s, but surely something extraordinary is taking shape when it comes to Indo-China relations. After hitting its lowest ebb in 2020, when the Galwan clash took place, the two countries are now making concerted efforts to cross the Himalayan heights. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s China visit starting August 31 will mark more than just his first official visit after the Galwan clash. It will symbolise the possibility of a thaw in a relationship that has been defined by distrust, suspicion, and, at times, open hostility. The fact that New Delhi and Beijing are even talking of reconciliation tells us something important: The logic of geography and economics has once again pulled Asia’s two giants back to the table.
Because if the two countries can overcome their differences, it would be an Asian Century with tiger and dragon engaged in a tango. This is not to say that differences have disappeared. Far from it. The border dispute remains unresolved, Tibet is still a sensitive issue, and China’s stance on Pakistan is unlikely to change. India has every reason to remain cautious about Beijing’s strategic ambitions, which often blend commerce with coercion. Yet, in diplomacy, timing is everything.
The global order is in churn, the United States has adopted a policy which leaves little room for negotiations, and it makes a lot of strategic sense for India to re-engage China — not out of naïveté, but out of pragmatism, More than anything, trade and economy provide the much-needed glue, and Trumponomics is pushing the two to come closer. Ironically, it is Trump who should get the credit for bringing the two Asian giants closer.
However, a lot needs to be negotiated and corrected. India’s trade deficit with China is staggering, but therein lies the opportunity: studies suggest more than USD 160 billion worth of untapped export potential. With India emerging as the fastest-growing major economy, it is well placed to become an alternative global supply chain along with China. Beijing, too, needs India’s vast market and digital innovation ecosystem at a time when its own economy faces slowing growth and mounting global pushback, especially from the US.
To put it in a larger perspective, India, China, and Russia are well equipped to take on the Western challenge, more so when Europe and the US are facing numerous challenges.
India’s digital edge, China’s manufacturing muscle, and Russia’s energy resources could together constitute a growth engine that reshapes and redefines the global economy.
Exploring the imperative of Indo-China relations
However, the biggest impediment is a matter of trust. Both India and China need to recalibrate their relations and can benefit from each other. For instance take the question of connectivity. India has long resisted China’s Belt and Road Initiative because of sovereignty concerns, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. That hesitation is valid and should not be abandoned. But the idea that India cannot derive any benefit from the broader infrastructure network being laid down across Asia and Europe is short-sighted. By engaging selectively-while simultaneously pursuing its own projects such as the Middle Corridor to Central Asia and the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor with Japan-India can ensure it participates in the opportunities BRI creates without surrendering its strategic autonomy. The choice is not binary; it is about using leverage intelligently.
It is easy to dismiss the idea of “Asian century” as rhetoric, but there is a hard truth beneath it: the 21st century cannot belong to Asia if its two largest nations remain locked in permanent rivalry. Stability between India and China is not just a bilateral matter; it is a global good for humanity, a prerequisite for peace, trade, and growth at a time when the world desperately needs anchors of stability.