Ahead of the ASEAN summit, Rajaram Panda talks about how India, as a rising power, cannot remain oblivious to the developments in its extended neighbourhood
From September 6 to 8, laos shall be hosting the 28th and 29th ASEAN Summit and some related Summits, namely the 19th ASEAN-China Summit to commemorate the 25th anniversary of ASEAN-China Dialogue Relations; 19th ASEAN-Japan Summit; 18th ASEAN-Republic of Korea Summit; 19th ASEAN Plus Three Summit; First ASEAN-Australia Summit; 8th ASEAN-UN Summit; 14th ASEAN-India Summit; 4th ASEAN-US Summit; and 11th East Asia Summit. In addition, the 8th Mekong-Japan Summit will also be held on the sidelines of these Summits.
The National Convention Centre in Vientiane will be the focus of world media, security experts, analysts and academics. This is because some recent developments in the region — such as China’s rejection of Hague court’s ruling on July 12 on the South China Sea (SCS); the announcement of THAAD deployment in South Korea by the US and South Korea and opposition by China and Russia; flurry of missile launches by North Korea; Shinzo Abe Government’s intended militarist move to counter perceived threats from China and North Korea etc — are some of the troubling issues that are seen to be threatening peace and stability in Asia.
SCS and solidarity of ASEAN
In the context of the escalating tension in the SCS, especially after the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) ruling, ASEAN and related summits are significant and their influence is expected to contribute greatly to the peace and stability of the region. Nevertheless, though no statement was issued during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Vientiane in July 2016, in common with the long shadow of the stalemate during Cambodia’s chairmanship of ASEAN in 2012, the question of solidarity of the ASEAN grouping as a vital regional security structure and one of key players internationally remains unquestioned. Media’s highlights about cracks surfacing in the ASEAN unity were ignored by the countries involved within the grouping. This assertion is because the member nations are sincerely committed to the ASEAN Community building process. They are equally devoted to implementing the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 and the way forward.
The solidarity and responsibility of ASEAN have provided its member states with the opportunity to develop their socio-economic sectors and attracted major powers, as well as other countries to engage with ASEAN as dialogue partners.
Even though ASEAN unity on the SCS issue was at risk of fraying even further, ASEAN solidarity could be salvaged after the PCA ruling as some had hoped. Although not directly involved in the SCS, in the National Day Rally speech on August 21, Singapore’s Prime Minister lee Hsien loong said, “Singapore must support and strive for a rule-based international order. If rules do not matter, then small countries like Singapore have no chance of survival. A strong, united ASEAN is Singapore’s best chance at ensuring it is taken seriously by the world”. He also stressed that it is necessary for ASEAN’s single voice on the international stage.
As the light at the end of the tunnel, the deft leadership of the laos chair ensured that there was a distinct undertone of agreement on the way forward for the SCS dispute. Along with that a recent joint statement from ASEAN and China reaffirmed to fully implement the 2002 Declaration on Conduct (DOC) and work towards a conclusion of the Code of Conduct (COC) next year. ASEAN-China will commemorate the 25th anniversary of ties in Vientiane in September.
Indeed, the Summits at Vientiane are expected to echo such sentiments while debating on the SCS issue. ASEAN should be more unified and decisive in future, which can contribute to regional peace, stability and enhance economic development. Though Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte is unlikely to raise the SCS issue at the ASEAN Summit meeting and instead might choose to discuss bilaterally, the importance of the issue will not subside. Vietnam in particular is not expected to yield space to its legitimate claims to another country by any means as the claims are governed by global rules. Though the US and China are two major players in the SCS issue, there is nothing that cannot be addressed and solution found if there is a willingness and openness from either side.
In other aspects, 28th and 29th ASEAN and related Summits in Vientiane are expected to focus on the organisation’s external relations and future directions as well as exchange of views on regional and international issues of common interests and concern. A matter of pride for laos would be that Barack Obama would make his first ever visit to that country as the US President and laos would look forward to advance bilateral ties. Even South Korean President Park Geun-hye will be the first as President to have a summit with lao leaders.
India’s role
India’s position on the SCS issue shall be closely watched by its Asian partners. So far, India’s position has been nuanced and pursued a policy in accordance with global norms and rules. Without taking the name of any country, India has strongly voiced its views that the SCS issue should be dealt with as per global rules and each stakeholder is expected to respect DOC and United Nations Convention on the law of the Sea (UNClOS).
In that view, ASEAN nations and India’s partners, particularly Vietnam, Singapore and Philippines would expect Prime Minister Narendra Modi to express India’s stance more vocally based on moral principles as per global rules. Not only India has civilisational links with Vietnam but also with many Asian countries, and its economic and strategic interests too have deepened. This warrants a strong expression of its stance and there can be no better forum to express its position than the summit gathering in Vientiane. Vietnam also looks forward to hearing such words of assurance from Modi when he visits Hanoi days before the summit in laos’s capital.
As a rising power India cannot remain oblivious to the developments in its extended neighbourhood. India has built strong economic ties with many of the Asian countries, which in turn have coalesced with its security interests. In an interdependent world, it is not possible to separate economics from security or vice versa and from this perspective, interests of both India and Vietnam are enmeshed to such an extent that one needs the support of the other on principled issues. When another bigger power flexes its muscle to bully a smaller power, India as an aspiring power is expected to take responsibility to deal with the situation.
Indian entity, the OVl, the overseas arm of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, is engaged in oil exploration activities on the invitation of Vietnam. In principle, India maintains the importance of free lanes of navigation and access to resources. This also gives an opportunity to India to expand its maritime space beyond the Indian Ocean region and the presence of Indian naval vessels enables the Indian Navy to check China’s expansionist maritime ambition. It is expected that India would reaffirm its stance in the gathering at Vientiane.
The writer is the ICCR India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan