For the first time in recent history, Tamil Nadu will see the spectacle of strange political permutation and combination which was once unthinkable. The DMK, the principal Opposition party, struggling to regain power which it lost in 2011 is likely to forge strategic and tacit understanding with the TTV Dhinakaran-led Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhakam (AMMK) to fight the upcoming by-elections from 20 Assembly constituencies in the State.
The bypolls were necessitated because of the disqualification of the 18 legislators belonging to the AIADMK and owing allegiance to Dhinakaran and his aunt V K Sasikala (the former aide to former Chief Minister late J Jyalalithaa serving jail term in Bangalore in connection with the disproportionate asset case verdict) and the demise of two serving legislators.
The DMK had a tacit understanding with Dhinakaran in the bypoll held from RK Nagar in December 2017. Though there was no formal announcement about this alliance, the DMK fielded a political novice Marudhu Ganesh to facilitate the victory of Dhinakaran who fought as an independent in the hustings against the AIADMK’s official candidate. While Dhinakaran romped home, the DMK candidate forfeited his security deposit, something which was unheard of in the RK Nagar where the party’s candidate Shimla Muthuchozhan had given a scare to the then chief minister Jayalalithaa in the 2016 assembly election.
While Muthuchozhan had polled more than 57,000 votes against Jayalalithaa’s 97,218 votes, Ganesh could poll hardly 24,000 votes in the 2017 by-poll. While the Tamil media celebrated the failure of BJP to score the votes polled by NOTA, the fall in the DMK votes went unnoticed. It was known to all that there was a secret deal between the DMK and Dhinakaran. “Yes, we have every reason to doubt that there was a tacit understanding between the DMK and Dhinakaran. The DMK is yet to explain why Muthuchozhan was overlooked during the by-poll,” V Mythreyan, MP, AIADMK, had told The Pioneer.
Though M K Stalin, president, DMK, issues daily statements condemning the AIADMK and Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswamy, it is interesting to note that neither he nor any other leaders in the DMK have attacked Dhinakaran, Sasikala or other members of the Mannargudi clan.
The AIADMK has to win at least 18 of the 20 seats going to the by-polls to continue in office. This is because of the precarious position of the AIADMK in the assembly where it is surviving only because of a fragile majority. In the Tamil Nadu House which has an effective strength of 234, the ruling dispensation should have at least 118 seats to sustain the government. But the AIADMK has hardly 115 members as on Saturday and there are reports that four to five members may jump fence to Dhinakaran camp anytime from now.
The DMK, which commands the support of 97 members, too have to win all the 20 seats to dream of toppling the Palaniswamy Government. The next option available to the Dravidian major is to enter into a strategic or tactical alliance with Dhinakaran’s AMMK and facilitate the defeat of all the AIADMK candidates by transferring votes.