The latest Af-Pak quake showed how violently Delhi can shake in an earthquake. And now that experts say that the next big one is just waiting to flatten the metro, SHAlINI SAKSENA tells you how preparedness is the only key to survival as the maximum response time one gets after an earthquake hits is only 10 to 12 seconds
The recent Af-Pak earthquake of 7.5 magnitude on the Richter Scale killed 385 people. It shook parts of north India as well (Delhi rather violently). Experts say that India is highly vulnerable to earthquakes since the entire Himalayan belt falls on the tectonic plates. But the real cause of alarm is Delhi which falls in the Zone IV (severe intensity) of seismic activity. This means that if an earthquake of 8.8 on the Richter hits the metro, most buildings, especially in Old Delhi, will flatten and an unimaginable number of people will die.
“If an earthquake of that magnitude strikes the Himalayas, it will be devastating. At a rough estimate, the death toll will be over two lakh,” Dr BK Rastogi, Director General of the Institute of Seismological Research in Gandhinagar, fears.
What makes Delhi and its surroundings most vulnerable is that it has not seen any activity in over 200 years and now, experts insist, a shaker is long overdue. What’s causing them to be anxious is that while some plates in the region have shown some activity, the major plates which were locked thus far, can move any time. This, they tell you, is like a ticking bomb. Unlike a cyclone, which can now be predicted, there can be no forewarning for an earthquake.
“The best one can do is study these regions thoroughly and map them so that whenever the disaster strikes, the civic bodies and other agencies are prepared to tackle the destruction and ensure that as many lives are saved as possible. There are several agencies doing mock drills and have teams in place to rush in. Even the Government has a plan in place, there are funds available but there is need for public participation,” Rastogi opines.
Very few people know that when an earthquake occurs, it is not one point but an area of say 150 to 200 km which is considered as its epicentre. The area it covers and the depth at which it occurs determine the extent of damage. In the Hindu Kush area, the depth is at 210 km. So a quake here will have little impact on life and property. Also, the farther one is from the point of impact, the less the damage. Usually cites that are more than 500 km away are safe. Unfortunately, Delhi is only 250 km or so away from the frontal Himalayan region.
“It is not as if the country’s landmass will split. What will happen is that the northern part will move more towards the south as it has happened in case of Nepal where the southern part (the plains) have moved towards the Himalayas and the base of the mountains have gone down a depression of anything in the range of three to six metres,” Rastogi explains.
“The Himalayan belt is at risk of a strong earthquake anytime now. We have experienced tremors across north India due to earthquakes with epicentres as far as Afghanistan. A strong earthquake in the Indian Himalayas can be catastrophic, and we all need to be prepared by spreading awareness of the dos and don’ts, strengthening and retrofitting our structures and securing the non-structural elements. Our agency has been working with the communities in the aftermath of earthquakes, be it Bhuj or the recent one in Nepal, with relief, rehabilitation and recovery initiatives. As a humanitarian organisation, we continue to respond to natural disasters across India and the world,” Rajan Bahadur, MD & CEO, Care India, says.
India is the 13th most vulnerable country to climate change in the world. As per the National Disaster Management Authority of India, 58.6 per cent of India’s landmass is prone to earthquakes; over 40 million hectares (12 per cent) of its land is prone to floods and river erosion; 5,700 km of the 7,516 km long coastline is prone to cyclones and tsunamis; 68 per cent of its cultivable area is vulnerable to droughts and its hilly areas are at risk from landslides and avalanches.
Therefore, teams like the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), under the aegis of National Disaster Management Authority, are in place. “India is prone to disasters be it earthquakes, floods or cyclones. In last decade, a lot of work has been done to make sure that the damage and death toll is kept to the minimum. Take for example, the way the NDRF swung into action during the Odisha cyclone last year. But a lot still needs to be done,” Rastogi says.
Where the country is lacking are the doers. One is told that while we have the theoretical aspect down to a perfect T, the practicalities need to be worked on. What is on paper needs to trickle down to the people at the grassroots level with required training so that they are able to carry out the disaster instructions and rescue operations.
Also what is missing is the last link that of connectivity. It has been found that during a disaster, the local administration has largely been unable to give the exact location to the Air Force to drop food packages, leading to a delay in trying to find out the longitude and latitude of the maximum damage area.
Besides, the perennial lack of funds and Governmental apathy makes areas like Delhi most vulnerable. Despite knowing that the entire northern part of the country falls in the severe intensity zone, the Government is still not doing much about it in the precautionary zone.
“A number of major Indian cities come under seismic activity Zones IV and V, implying that they are highly susceptible to devastating earthquakes. With Delhi lying in seismic Zone IV, it is sitting on a tinderbox with 90 or more per cent of the buildings not adhering to the safety code. They are also not built under proper technical supervision,” Bahadur emphasises.
The maximum response time one gets before an earthquake strikes is just 10 to 15 seconds. California’s advanced ShakeAlert system gave survivors a grace period of 5-10 seconds when the 2014 Napa Valley earthquake struck. Japan’s early warning systems meant that the P-waves from the 9 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Sendai in 2011, gave Japan Railways about 12-22 seconds allowing the bullet trains, the Shinkansen, to grind to a halt.
Since there is very little time given to take any action, it is important to create widespread awareness. Holding workshops, going to schools and teaching children the drill are some of the steps that should be taken, experts say.
India has been more vulnerable to natural disasters due to the change in the climatic conditions. Because of this climatic change, new things are coming in. For example, if a particular area has been prone to cyclones, then it does not necessarily indicate that the next disaster would still be a cyclone; it could be even be an earthquake too.
“We have been working with communities to create awareness. Across India, emergency stocks of relief kits which includes essentials like tarpaulin, hygiene kits, pregnancy kits, water purifying tablets, etc. have been given to the teams so that the relief reaches the people in the shortest possible time. At the national level, the Government has positioned relief battalions of men and materials at different locations. However, much more can be done with better policy, planning and implementation,” Bahadur says. Where we are lacking, he adds, is in a focused effort and work at the ground level. Both pre and post disaster situations have great relevance and importance if lives have to be saved.
Regular mock exercises with the help of disaster management units should take place everywhere for any scenario, without any warning. These exercises are done for preparedness. “For example, in Gurgaon, most corporates conduct mock drills to train their staff on how to react to emergency situations. How to descend from the stairs in discipline without creating panicIJ Which are the assembly points, etc. But more such mock practices need to be done,” Bahadur asserts.
This is because areas like most of India, Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan are inaccessible due to the mountainous terrain. For any help to reach, it takes time. “Even in the US, the response time for any help to arrive is 24-72 hours. The same goes for us too,” he says.
So while, it is easy to map the entire Gujarat region by testing the soil strength and the areas that have been showing seismic activity, it will take a long time to do the same in north India. However, it is not as if it can’t be done even though it is a tedious process which requires physical visits to the site and taking stock of the area.
“This exercise may take anywhere from one to two years, but the information so gathered will go a long way in helping when an earthquake occurs. With everything on paper, it will be easy for the ground staff to swing into action faster. This information can be shared with other agencies as well, who, at present, have nothing much in terms of information which in turn means that they may not know what to do in case of a disaster,” Rastogi says.
Another important factor, which goes unnoticed, is that men and women react differently to natural disasters, their trauma is also different. There is need to take care of this and ensure that the relief kits for women include sanitary napkins, water purifier tablets, etc. “Though we have come a long way, much more needs to be done at that,” Bahadur asserts.