A few months back, the alliance partners of the Congress-led UPA-II Government were doing their own thing. But now, all of a sudden, the alliance has become united again. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has indicated that it is ready to make a comeback to the partyfold. By giving support of 5 MlAs to DMK chief Karunanidhi’s daughter Kanimozhi to be re-elected to the Rajya Sabha, the Congress has ensured that the DMK is indebted to it. likewise, a special package and support of 4 MlAs has had such a tremendous effect on Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar that these days any Central Minister visiting the State is personally received by him.
At one time, the relations between the Congress and the National Conference (NC) in J&K appeared as if it was reaching a breakpoint. But now, things are back to normal. There are reports that the U-turn took place after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress president Sonia Gandhi visited the Valley. Civil Aviation Minister and Rashtriya lok Dal (RlD) chief Ajit Singh has already made it clear that he was, is and will remain with the UPA. Similarly, the alliance with Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar will also continue.
In Jharkhand, the Congress has almost finalised its alliance with Shibu Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Even Jaganmohan Reddy, in Andhra Pradesh, has announced that his party, YSR Congress, will go for a post-poll alliance with the Congress. K Chandrasekhar Rao’s Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) will also join hands with the Congress.
This means that the UPA-II has once again become strong. Party insiders give Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi credit for bringing the parties together.
The partnership
The Congress is not only adding more parties to its alliance it is also gaining sympathy of many satraps for being a secular party. Unfortunately, there are not many takers who want to join the BJP-led NDA. Now that the JD(U) has broken its alliance with the BJP, its leaders have a Herculean task ahead — to keep the remaining three parties — Shiv Sena, Akali Dal and Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) — together.
The party leaders say that there are not many political parties who are willing to form a pre-poll alliance with the NDA. Strangely, the party leaders also say that they don’t need any partners. They claim that other parties will be willing to join the NDA once the BJP becomes the single largest party in the 2014 lok Sabha election.
In fact, leaders opine that after the elections, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and Telugu Desam president N Chandrababu Naidu will join the NDA. And there is a reason behind this. If Karunanidhi and Jaganmohan Reddy join hands with the Congress, Jayalalithaa and Chandrababu Naidu will side with the BJP. Even former Haryana Chief Minister OP Chautala will support them. And if Soren joins the Congress, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha-Prajatantrik (JVM-P) led by Babulal Marandi may form a partnership with the BJP.
3rd move later
The five regional satraps — Samajwadi party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar, Karunanidhi, Sharad Pawar and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee — had time and again said that 2014 lok Sabha elections will be held in November. But interestingly, all the five leaders are not working towards that deadline.
Instead, they now say that the General Elections will be held as per schedule. The left parties and BSP chief Mayawati were always in favour of elections to be held on schedule so that they could assess and strengthen their base. Meanwhile, talks of Third Front and Federal Front are doing rounds. Though there are very few takers for the formation of any kind of front at present. The leaders opine that nothing concrete is likely to happen till after the 2014 lok Sabha elections. The formation of any front will most probably happen once the results of the elections pour in. So, the satraps will unite once the elections are over. Even the left front leaders have said that no front will be formed without them and have made it clear that formation of the front will be done only after the elections. Mulayam Singh has also said that the Third Front will be formed after elections. Nitish Kumar, Jayalalithaa and Naveen Patnaik have said that they will fight the 2014 lok Sabha election on their own.
This gives clear indication that the satraps are gearing up for post-poll alliance.
Woman power
Almost all the parties are keeping their eyes on the political moves that the three women leaders – Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalithaa and Mayawati – have been making recently. The satraps who have set their eyes on the Prime Minister’s chair are anxious about what stand these three ladies will take after the General Elections and what will be their take on the post-poll alliance.
There are reports that since Mamata is not happy with Mulayam Singh, she is hobnobbing with Mayawati. There are 162 lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. The three ladies will manage to win a majority of these seats.
When Mamata had put forth the idea of the Federal Front, she didn’t speak with Mulayam Singh about her idea. Instead, she spoke with Naveen Patnaik and Nitish Kumar. Meanwhile, there are reports that Jayalalithaa is in talks with the left parties. By ensuring that CPI’s D Raja has been elected to the Rajya Sabha, she has made a master move.
Now, the left parties will support Jayalalithaa. This means that Mamata and Jayalalithaa will be on different sides. There are rumours that Jayalalithaa and Mulayam Singh could play an important role in the formation of the Third Front which will be formed with the left parties at the helm. Former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda and Chandrababu Naidu will join the front formed by the left.
While Mayawati has not laid her cards out in the open, there are reports that she will do everything in her power to stop Mulayam. She will go with the party which will help her achieve her goal.
Trouble for jogi
Former Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Ajit Jogi may land up in trouble. It is said that the National Investigative Agency (NIA), which is investigating the Maoist attack on Congress leaders in Chhattisgarh, is keeping an eyes on Jogi’s movements. Rumour has it that the Agency is investigating his role in the attacks. Though, it has not found any evidence which points toward him, the allegations leveled by the opposition parties has made the NIA probe whether Jogi had prior information of the attacks.
If this is not enough, caretaker State Congress president Charan Das Mahant is at loggerheads with Jogi after Shaheen Amin, Jogi’s close aide, rebelled and won the local elections.
Also, Jogi has made the party High Command unhappy by saying that other political parties are eager to welcome him. He has said that the BSP wants to give him the party’s command in Chhattisgarh. But he has said that he owes everything to Sonia and will not leave the Congress. But lately, there have been several complaints against him and there is little chance that he will b given an important role to play in the 2014 lok Sabha elections.
Game plan
The UPA-II managers are devising a strategy for the next Parliament session — they are going to keep the SP out of the equation. Though, the dates for Monsoon Session have not been finalised, it may begin sometime in the third week of July. The strategists opine that during this session, they wouldn’t get support from SP on any issues.
The SP has opposed the Food Security Bill saying that it is anti-farmer. It is not supporting the land Acquisition Bill as well. But it is surprising that the SP has supported the move to put all the political parties under the RTI ambit. If the Government introduces a Bill to stop it, SP will oppose that also. Congress leaders say that Mulayam Singh wants the lok Sabha elections to be held in November this year hence, he will not co-operate. This move may topple the UPA-II and the elections may be held this year.
So, the Congress has prepared strategy to sideline the SP with the help of DMK and JD(U). The party will also get the support from the BSP. Meanwhile, the UPA-II is confident that it will get the JPC report endorsed related to the telecom scam.
UP strategy
In UP, the BJP is working on two-pronged strategy; to win the election and to attack the SP leaders. Therefore, the party is on the lookout for candidates who have the ability to win the election on their own and give a good fight to the SP, BSP and the Congress candidates. For this even candidates who don’t belong to the State may be given a chance.
Former Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh Uma Bharti may also be given chance. She wants to fight from the Amroha seat. But there are reports that she will contest from Jhansi. likewise, Hema Malini can also fight from UP. She wants to contest the elections from Firozabad where the SP has given a ticket to Ramgopal Yadav’s son Akshay Yadav. However, the BJP wants Hema Malini to stand against Mulayam’s daughter-in-law Dimple Yadav in Kannauj.
PlAYING THE BRAHMIN CARD
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati is very busy these days. She is organising a Brahmin rally on July 7. last week, her trusted general secretary Satish Mishra addressed several Brahmin sammelans that were organised in many cities in the country. He has also held meetings of brotherhood committees. Brahmin leaders in the BSP like former Energy Minister of the State, Ramveer Upadhyay, Brijesh Pathak, BSP MP and former Higher Education Minister Rakesh Dhar Tripathi have come together to motivate Brahmin voters in favour of the BSP.
Sources say that once the July rally is over, Brahmin politics will be highlighted in the State again. There are around 11 per cent Brahmins in UP and almost all the parties are eying this votebank. That is the reason why the SP has been trying to woo this caste by putting former Chief Minister of Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh in the forefront. The SP, like the BSP, has also organised Brahmin sammelans.
However, the BJP and the Congress have not disclosed their strategy. But they have also kept an eye on this votebank. The BJP has made laxmi Kant Vajpayee its State president and has full confidence on Kalraj Mishra, lalji Tandon and MM Joshi. The Congress has sidelined both its Brahmin leaders — Pramod Tiwari and Rita Bahuguna Joshi but there are rumours that they will be given bigger role to play just before the 2014 lok Sabha elections.