The Japanese media is divided over the new law. Some are supporting it, while others feel it is against the nation’s pacifist stance, writes RAJARAM PANDA
March 29, 2017, was a significant landmark in Japan’s security policy as it marked one year since the Shinzo Abe Government enacted the new security-related law that significantly broadened the scope of the country’s Self-Defence Forces’ activities, including enabling the limited exercise of the right of collective self-defence. The law also gave the SDF personnel on UN peacekeeping operations greater authority to use their weapons. The law expanded the government’s discretion over overseas operations of the SDFs and allowed the SDF to provide logistical support to the militaries of the US and other nations operating across the world.
Since Abe came to power in 2012, Japan has been enjoying a rare spell of political stability since Junichiro Koizumi retired from politics, leading to a spell of what came to be known as ‘revolving prime ministers’. This period of political instability came as a serious bottleneck in making legislation on critical issues impinging the country’s security. Abe’s assumption to power changed this situation and the prime minister could afford to devote responding appropriately to the deteriorating security environment in Japan’s neighbourhood. Two developments — North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and China’s assertive stances on territorial issues — influenced this policy change in Japan’s security posture. This article discusses only the North Korean issue as the trigger and leaves out China for a future article.
From the very beginning when the new national security legislation came into force, the issue has remained controversial domestic. Though Japan’s national security remains vulnerable to perceived threats from North Korea’s missile launches and China’s belligerence on regional issues, the Japanese people are unprepared to accept their country to take the burden to defend the country by themselves. They prefer to rely on the US security umbrella so long as the Security Treaty remains in force.
This situation has somewhat changed after Donald Trump took over the US Presidency. He has demanded greater security burden from the allies — Japan and South Korea — by way of paying more to the cost of US forces stationed in the bases. He made further controversial statement that the allies might even think of acquiring their own nuclear weapons to defend their countries. Such statements were alarming to the people in both Japan and South Korea, though emboldens the hardliners and conservatives to demand for revisiting their nuclear options. The situation however during the pre-Trump era was not dramatically different as the clamour for revising the nuclear policies existed but was dormant. That voice gets more currency now.
How has Japan been able to use this new law for the country’s security during the past one yearIJ And what changes have occurred in the security environment in Japan’s neighbourhoodIJ Without doubt, threats from North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programs have increased. The firing of four missiles by North Korea on March 6, three of which landed in the Japanese waters is a matter of concern for Japan. The SDF has a legitimate right under the new law now to monitor the Sea of Japan. The Maritime SDF of Japan can now engage its Aegis-equipped vessels round the clock to intercept any incoming missiles. If tensions heighten, Aegis destroyers from the US Navy’s 7th Fleet will also jointly monitor the situation.
Before the new security law came into force, if a US ship involved in surveillance or patrols for the defence of Japan was attacked, Japan was unable to defend that ship unless the nation itself came under armed attack. The new law now enables the MSDF to protect US vessels even in peacetime. The scope was expanded, according to which MSDF can counterattack to protect weapons and other equipment of other nations from being destroyed while in missions to defend Japan.
The urgency to operationalise the new security law with vigour was felt following the missile launch by North Korea on March 6, three of which landed inside Japan’s exclusive economic zone. The information obtained from Aegis ships and radars across Japan were displayed on a larger screen in the underground centre at the Air Self-Defence Force’s Air Defence Command headquarters inside the base. The alarm was felt across the region when Pyongyang announced that the missiles were an exercise by a unit tasked with launching an attack on US based in Japan, thereby posing a threat both to Japan and the US.
Japan is seized of the reality that North Korea is capable of hitting Japan within ten minutes of firing a missile. This led to seamless coordination between Japan and the US to share information in peacetime to joint operations in potential emergencies. Therefore, an Alliance Coordination Mechanism mandated to closely coordinate between the SDF and the US military was put in place. It remains unconfirmed that Pyongyang has succeeded in miniaturising a nuclear warhead capable of fitting it onto a ballistic missile but the pace in which it is making advances on the weapon system, the days are not far off when that becomes a reality. Japan, the US and South Korea shall then face the real nightmare. North Korea’s advance in nuclear program cannot be seen as a far-fetched dream.
Much hope rests on China to exercise its influence on North Korea to change course. But China is either incapable or unwilling to exert any pressure on Pyongyang owing to its own strategic compulsions. US President, Trump is unwilling to wait for China to cooperate. Having taken North Korea threat seriously, Trump is reviewing his policies towards the North, including consideration of military options that could include pre-emptive strikes and cyber-attacks. Being geographically close to North Korea, Japan feels the heat and intends to keep in step with the US and ramp up the pressure on North Korea.
With no sign of cooperation from Beijing, Trump has declared that if needed, the US will act unilaterally to deal with the threat of a nuclear North Korea. Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the US on April 6th and Trump is expected to pressure him to do more about North Korea, which experts fear could soon develop a long-range nuclear missile capable of hitting the US mainland. It remains unclear, however, what possible actions that Trump has in mind to deal with North Korea if China is unwilling to help.
China is North Korea’s only international ally. But China fears a possible unified Korea would bring US troops close to its border, besides millions of refugees from North Korea crossing into Chinese territory. Though China joined other nations in imposing sanctions and banned coal imports from North Korea till the end of 2017, these are cosmetic responses to please the outside world. That said, the North Korean issue remains alive for Japan and other stakeholders to grapple with.
In the meantime, Japanese media is divided on Japan’s new security laws. While the Yimouri Shimbun seemed to endorse Abe’s pro-active move, Asahi Shimbun is sceptical of Japan’s new laws, seen as a departure from the nation’s pacifist stance. Even some political parties are opposed to the new security law. Many lawsuits have been filed across the nation to have the court declare the legislative package to be “unconstitutional”. With strong public disapproval, the legislation’s future is uncertain.
The writer is currently Indian Council for Cultural Relations India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan.
The views expressed are his own and do not represent either of the ICCR or the Government of India