The BJP leaders are doing their best to expand the NDA but, it appears, that just the opposite is happening. The 2014 lok Sabha elections are round the corner and the alliance and potential partners of the BJP are gearing up to fight the elections on their own.
There are 12 Hindu MlAs from the Akali Dal. This four-decade-old partner of the party has prepared a blueprint to contest all 2014 lok Sabha seats including those that are Sikh dominated on its own. The Shiv Sena, the other old and trusted ally, has been keeping a distance from the BJP. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, another ally of the BJP, has made a list of candidates for all the 40 lok Sabha seats and is also ready to fight on his own.
So, that leaves Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalitha. But recently, on her birthday, her party — AIADMK — has pledged to win all 39 seats of Tamil Nadu and one seat from Pondicherry. Therefore, the possibility that NDA will see an expansion before the elections is highly unlikely. However, there is a likelihood that these parties and leaders may come together after the lS polls. In such a scenario the BJP has to be prepared to go into the 2014 General Elections on its own.
Alliance jolt
like the BJP, the Congress is also facing a dearth of alliance partners. In the present political scenario, the constituent parties of UPA-II are looking for possibilities to contest election on their own.
Everyone was surprised when at a function, where Congress leaders were also present, Agriculture Minister and National Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar said that there was no difference between the NDA and the UPA-II Government.
The Congress leaders opine that just before the Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Pawar may throw some political tantrums. Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav went one step ahead of Pawar. During the Budget Session, he told the BJP national president Rajnath Singh that if BJP was ready to change its policy on Muslims and mandir, the SP may think of forming an alliance with it. The statement, it is said, is a part of Mulayam Singh’s positioning for the 2014 lok Sabha elections.
Meanwhile, the DMK has been talking about atrocities done on Tamils in Sri lanka. It is said that the party is preparing to form an alliance with Dravidian parties. The Trinamool Congress (TMC), Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha have already left the UPA-II. It appears that the alliance partners are all set to give a jolt to the Congress before the lS elections.
Post-poll strategyIJ
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi attacked the Congress president Sonia Gandhi and vice-president Rahul Gandhi at the BJP’s national council meet. The verbal attack ensured that the Congress managers were kept busy for two days countering the attacks.
By targeting Sonia and Rahul, Modi has projected himself as the most vocal face of non-Congressism. That is why along with praising former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Modi also praised President Pranab Mukherjee and late former Prime Minister lal Bahadur Shastri.
Modi said that right from Chaudhary Charan Singh to late VP Singh to HD Deve Gowda to late Chandra Shekhar to late IK Gujral, all became Prime Ministers only when they left the Congress. During his 50-minute speech Modi raised only those issues which are usually raised by non-Congress kshatrapas in their States.
Sources say that Modi, instead of talking on issues like mandir, masjid and Hindutva, will target the Congress. It is said that he is not doing pre-poll politics but has started post-poll politics.
Bihar crisis
The position of the Congress in Bihar has been worsening daily after the 2010 Assembly elections. Once the Assembly elections were over, by-elections were held on four seats and the results show that the Congress votes have declined.
The by-election held for the Kalyanpur seat recently showed that the party only got 8,000 votes. In 2010, the Congress had got 13,000 votes for this seat.
likewise, in Daraunda, the Congress votes declined from 8,400 to 4,100. In laukhan, Congress had got 16,000 votes in last election but this time party got only 3,400. In Purnea, Congress had got 39,000 votes but in recently held by-elections, the number went down by 11,000 votes.
Despite all this, the Congress High Command is not worried, not likely to change the State president nor bring any changes in the party. Bihar Congress president Mehboob Ali Kaiser had resigned from the post two years back but is still continuing.
Azad vs soz
Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad and State Congress president Saifuddin Soz have been at loggerheads with each other for a long time. It was thought that only these two factions were active in Jammu & Kashmir. But some Congress partymen have created a third faction.
It is said that Kaiser and Punjab in-charge Gulchain Singh Charak are supporting this faction. Also, senior leaders from Jammu like Mangat Ram Sharma and Suman Bhagat have also joined this faction. But rumour has it that it is some Ministers in the Omar Government who are behind this move and the name of Medical Education Minister Taj Mohiuddin is doing rounds.
The Minister for Hajj, Auqaf and Public Enterprises Peerzada Muhammad Sayeed, Raman Bala (Minister for Revenue J&K) and Deputy Chief Minister Tara Chand are also very active. It is said that Minister for Urban Development and local Bodies, Nawang Rigzin Jora, who hails from laddhak, is also part of this faction.
The three-way faction has posed problems for Azad and Soz. This is because the third faction wants a new State president and least interference from Azad.
Chavan comebackIJ
Former Maharashtra Chief Minister and Congress leader Ashok Chavan, who is in political exile after he was named as an accused in the multi-crore Adarsh scam may find his way back into the Congress and be given some responsibility.
After the death of late former Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, the party was desperately in search of a strong Maratha leader and that search has completed with the present Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan.
Chavan’s image is good but he is not a mass leader. On the other hand Ashok Chavan who had been sidelined is desperate for a comeback. He has said that he is ready to take on any responsibility and displayed his strength — 22 MlAs had gathered in support of him. Now, with the changes in Maharashtra Congress there are chances he will be given a post.
Some political analysts opine that Ashok Chavan may find his way into All India Congress Committee (AICC). There is speculation that the final report of Justice JA Patil can give reprieve to him. Meanwhile, the interim report has given him a clean chit.
Sources say that that the Chief Minister doesn’t want Ashok Chavan to make a comeback at this juncture and that is the reason why the Patil committee’s report has not been released.
However, Ashok Chavan will find his way home even without the contents of the report.
Kerala affairs
The Congress is worried about what is happening in the Kerala Government. Party leaders are of the opinion that given the present state of affairs in the State, it will not be surprising if the Government falls. The Congress-led UDF Government has only four MlAs. Hence, the CPM-led lDF has been maintaining pressure on the Government and the Congress.
In Kerala, it is the supporters of Defence Minister AK Antony who are in a dominating position. Antony has proved his strength by defending PJ Kurien in Suryanelli gangrape. But the Nair community is supporting State Congress president Ramesh Chennithala. While Suryanelli gangrape case has put a blot on Kurien’s image.
Meanwhile, the Congress is fighting with its allies. There is a clash between the leaders of Kerala Congress (B). A Minister from this party KB Ganesh Kumar is facing allegations of extra-marital relationship.
It is said that the husband of the lady involved with the Minister beat up Kumar at his official residence. Though the Minister has denied the incident, the Government Chief Whip and Kerala Congress-M leader PC George, picking up the report carried by a Malayalam daily without naming the Minister, said Kumar was the person mentioned in it.
Now George and Kumar are at loggerheads. The CPM-led lDF has found a new issue to raise besides the ones making headlines — that of the infamous ice-cream parlour sex abuse scandal, Suryanelli gangrape and now a Minister having an affair.
Putting the house in orderIJ
In Delhi, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit and PCC president Jai Prakash Agrawal have been at loggerheads with each other. Dikshit supporters had appealed to the Congress president Sonia Gandhi and party vice-president Rahul Gandhi to remove Agrawal.
Now, it appears that Agrawal will indeed be removed from the post. Sources say that Dikshit has briefed the party High Command that she would like to go into the Assembly elections with a new State president.
The Delhi Assembly elections are scheduled for November. The election is important for the Congress and it can’t take any risk of making Dikshit angry. So, changes in the party organisation will be made according to her wishes. Both Sonia and Rahul are ready to make changes in accordance to Dikshit’s demand. But this is not the first time that the Congress has towed Dikshit’s line. In the past, leaders who have dared to oppose Dikshit like Chaudhary Prem Singh, late Ram Babu Sharma and Subhash Chopra have been sidelined.
Though Agarwal has a few sympathisers like Ajay Maken, Minister for Housing and Urban Poverty, but he is not going to interfere with the decision of the party High Command. So, Agarwal is fighting a lone battle. But the reason for anti Agarwal waveIJ It is said that Kanishka Singh a close associate of Rahul has had a major role to play in this.
And it is not just the Congress president who will be changed. Sources also say that Delhi will see a new Police Commissioner and may be a new lt Governor as well.