Before an alliance with the US and Japan, we must analyse its implications on Sino-Indian stand off and Sino-Pakistan strategic tie-up, writes Maj Gen RK Kaushal (Retd)
There has been a discernible shift in Indo-US relations after the NDA Government came to power in 2014. The US has long felt the need for a tie-up with India to restrain Chinese influence in Indian Ocean and South China Sea. As per The Pentagon’s assessment, the trilateral alliance between US-Japan-India is the one “whose time has come”. At the geostrategic level, the US wants India to play a pivotal role in its anti-China policy in the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. However, before we are allured into any such alliance with the US and Japan, we need to analyse its implications on Sino-Indian stand off on North-Eastern and Northern borders and long standing Sino-Pak strategic tie up.
In the international power play, “power of a king lies in his armed forces”, says Chanakya in Arthashastra. However, at this juncture our defence capabilities are at very low ebb, may it be the Army, Navy or the Air Force. Expounding the state of Army, Gen VK Singh in a letter addressed to then PM Manmohan Singh on the eve of his superannuation had written, “The state of the major (fighting) arms ie mechanised forces, artillery, air defence, infantry and special forces, as well as the engineers and signals, is indeed alarming.” Elite Special Forces are “woefully short”. He further opined that there is “a lack of urgency at all levels” on matters of national security. The General is now, the Minister of State of Foreign Affairs and has not raised alarm about the state of the army in the past two years. What a paradox!
State of our navy is no better. Despite the well managed Naval Review the truth is that the fleet is aging, replacement of ships and submarines has not been adequately funded. There were 21 accidents involving Indian Naval ships and submarines from January 2012 to January 2015. Resignation of the Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral DK Joshi has not evinced the response it should have from the MOD.
Commenting on the state of our Air Force, Ashley Tellis, a top American expert on defence matters, argues that Indian Air Force is vital for deterrence and stability in South Asia and for Indo-Pacific Region. The IAF’s fighter force is weaker than the numbers suggest, the report said. As many as 36.5 squadrons are well short of its sanctioned strength, and many of its frontline aircraft are obsolete. With this state of the armed forces, how can we play a pivotal role in the geo-strategic environment in the Indo- Pacific RegionIJ
On the other hand, China has raised the rank and status of its Western Tibet Military Command to widen its scope for its missions and combat preparedness to fortify the border with India. A Beijing-based military expert Song Shingling has been quoted as saying that “the Tibet Military Command bears great responsibility to prepare for possible conflicts between China and India whose operational role is to initiate and sustain intense shock and awe by initiating a blitzkrieg type short campaigns against India”.
To execute the strategy of multiple fronts against India, China has cultivated its relations with Pakistan in a most comprehensive manner. Over the years, China has helped Pakistan enhance its military capabilities with the objective of keeping India engaged and focused on threats emanating from Pakistan. Chinese investment and construction activities in POK indicate its willingness to support Pakistan in any future Indo-Pak conflict.
Are we so naive in reading the Chinese intentionsIJ Do we lack professional counsel or strategic acumen to analyse the threats to our national securityIJ Do we believe that smart diplomacy will compensate for the lack of our military capabilitiesIJ We must not forget the advice rendered by Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel in November 1950 to Pandit Nehru on the developing situation in Tibet, wherein he emphasised the Chinese threat to India both on the frontier and internal security. He emphasised that the Government should consider the long-term consideration of our defence needs. He further stressed that unless we assure our supplies of arms, ammunition and armour, we would be making our defence perpetually weak and we would not be able to stand up to the double threat of difficulties both from the west and north-west and north and north-east. Nehru thought that his diplomatic recipe of Pancha Sheela will be the answer to Sardar Pastel's apprehensions.
There also was no lack of professional advice to the political leadership in pre 1962 debacle. Field Marshal Cariappa and General Thimayya were unequivocal in their recommendations about the Chinese intentions and the dismal state of our army to meet this threat. In 1960, Army Commander, Eastern Command, lt-Gen SPP Thorat war gamed the Chinese threat and India’s response in the Exercise lal Qila. He was unequivocal in recommending the use of Indian Air Force in an offensive role, integral to the army's war plans. We all know that having ignored the political and professional advice, the country had to suffer a humiliating defeat in 1962, the effect of which is still etched on the psyche of each and every Indian.
In 2009 the Indian Army conducted a war game called Divine Matrix, in the overall scenario that “misadventure by China is very much within the realm of possibility.” Military Operations Directorate had visualised a war scenario with the nuclear-armed neighbour before 2017. The assessment outlined that Beijing would employ information warfare (IW) to paralyse the command and control structure both at the operational as well as strategic level. As China is concerned about growing ties between Tokyo, Washington and New Delhi, we must not be oblivious to Divine Matrix scenario on the grounds that it is rather outdated. As per some Chinese officials, if India does eventually emerge as a US strategic partner, Beijing will exercise its options to neutralise.
In response to developing situation on the line of control in 2013 and long standing demand of the army, the Government consented to raise a Mountain Strike Corps. However, till date no separate funds have been allotted for its raising. In December 2014, Army Vice Chief, lt-Gen Philip Campose informed Parliament’s Standing Committee of Defence that War Wastage Reserves have been depleted for equipping the Mountain Strike Corps.” We are not getting additional budget. A certain amount of about Rs5,000 crore has been set aside saying that this is meant for the Mountain Corps. But this is not over and above the budget. We need more money if we are to make up all the stores and weapons which we have pulled out from the WWR for the raising, the Strike Corps”
Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar talking about raising of the Mountain Strike Corps said that the previous UPA regime had approved the raising of the 17 Corps, with 90,274 soldiers, at a cost of Rs64,678 crore over seven years. “I agree the MSC is a necessity. I have not cancelled it. But I have put a temporary stop to it”. Does this remind us of the Sardar Pastel's advice to Nehru about assuring supplies of arms, ammunition and armour to our Army as a priorityIJ If the MOD asks the IDSA to carry out a study on “Operational Power Parity” with that of our adversaries, we would get very startling results. In fact, India for appropriate response to two and a half front war needs not only one but two Smart Mountain Strike Corps.
According to the Chinese leadership, India, as a member of BRICS, should maintain cordial relations with its northern neighbour. Beijing also cautioned New Delhi to understand the fact that India's undeclared military alliance with the US would dampen the co-operation among the BRICS member countries. Beijing has even propounded that China and Russia could provide India with admirable strategic opportunities in the changing global political scenario. Is it not a well considered proposition to establish Sino-India- Russia Tripartite in the emerging world orderIJ Where do we goIJ
As evidenced from the perpetual uneasy relations between armed forces, bureaucrats and politicians, one wonders how our Supreme Commander could play a sagacious role in all important aspect of National Security. Dr Ambedkar, the father of our Constitution, elucidated role of our President as same that of the monarch under the British Constitution wherein he/she is the constitutional head of the Armed Forces. Victorian constitutionalist Walter Bagehot defined the Queen’s rights as, the right to be consulted, to encourage and to warn. The Queen in discharge of her functions as the Commander-in-Chief meets regularly with the Chief of the Defence Staff and the Single Service Chiefs. Her majesty also keeps in touch with the work and interests of the services through her Defence Services Secretary, a serving officer who is also a member of the Royal Household. We have had very outstanding personas who have been the Presidents of our country. Our present incumbent is one of the most experienced statesmen. It is well within his right to follow the British convention.
mgrkaushal@gmail.com