Both BJP-led NDA and JDU-led front are leaving no stone unturned to ensure their victory in the upcoming Assembly Elections in Bihar, but the former seems to be surging past due to a number of factors, writes Sumit Kumar Jha
As the first phase of polling for the Bihar Assembly Elections nears, the political temperature has risen to an unprecedented level. Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and the Janata Dal United (JDU)-led grand alliance are leaving no stone unturned to ensure their victory.
In doing so, while both alliances are trying to project themselves as a better alternative before the people of Bihar, it is true that the JDU-led front appears to be losing to the BJP-led NDA due to various factors. For instance, the decision of lalu Prasad Yadav and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to not join Rahul Gandhi’s rally in West Champaran sent a strong message that the grand alliance has not been able to resolve its internal problems, while projecting a united face before the people of Bihar. This in turn would make it difficult for the JDU-led alliance to convince the people of Bihar that the grand alliance can provide a stable Government in the State.
In fact, the ongoing tussle among the allies only bears testimony to the fact that the JDU, RJD and Congress forged the grand alliance not out of choice but political compulsions. Experts and analysts are of the opinion that at the local level, workers of the JDU and RJD remain hostile towards each other. lalu had even resisted the projection of Nitish as the Chief Ministerial candidate and it was only after hectic persuasion that he gave in, claiming he was ready to “drink poison” to fight the communal forces.
After a long tussle between the two parties over seat sharing, the JDU and RJD finally agreed to contest 101 seats each. While at the superficial level it appears that both parties appear determined to go to polls with combined strength, beneath the seat-sharing arrangement is the fact that the RJD is in no mood to be counted as being second to the JDU.
Certainly, Nitish must be disturbed by the seat-sharing mechanism because the JDU has to fight on 15 less seats than it has won in the last Assembly Elections. In addition, 39 sitting MlAs of the JDU cannot contest because these seats have gone to the RJD. Thus, the JDU has already lost 52 seats before the elections.
In turn, the prospect of the JDU securing more seats this time automatically does not arise, putting Nitish on the backfoot well before the election results are out. Furthermore, lalu’s attempt to convert the Swabhiman Rally at Patna’s Gandhi Maidan into his power projection exercise left Nitish in a fix.
What is more disturbing is the fact that the idea of bringing all leaders of the Janata Parivar has got a big setback. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) separating from the alliance led to the formation of the Third Front with Samajwadi Janata Party (Rashtriya), Jan Adhikar Party of Pappu Yadav, Samras Samaj Party, and National People’s Party.
At the same time, Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen has also decided to contest on all 24 seats in the Seemanchal region. The left parties have also decided to fight Bihar Assembly Elections together.
While the SP-led Third Front, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and the left parties may not do well in the elections, they will certainly cut into the votes of the grand alliance, making it difficult for it to get voted to power.
As far as the BJP-led NDA is concerned, despite having some disagreement over seat sharing, the BJP has succeeded in bringing its allies to accept the arrangement. Thus, while contesting on 160 seats alone, the BJP commands the control of the NDA. In turn, the BJP can convince the people of Bihar that it can provide a stable Government.
If the election rallies are any indicator of the mood of the people, the BJP certainly has an upper hand over the grand alliance. In fact, all rallies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bihar have attracted massive crowds.
The BJP’s performance in the elections to the legislative Council has already shown that the people of Bihar are not happy with the JDU’s decision to part ways with the BJP, and subsequently joining hands with the RJD. Even some pre-poll surveys have shown that the BJP-led NDA will form the next Government in Bihar. In fact, one survey conducted by a TV channel stated that the BJP-led NDA can make a dent in the Muslim-Yadav vote bank of the grand alliance by getting 47.8 per cent of the Yadav votes and 41.2 per cent of Muslim votes. If this survey is held true, the prospect of the JDU-led front would be bleak because it would be able to get the majority of Muslim and Yadav votes, which account for 30 per cent of the total population of Bihar.
As the BJP had got 53 per cent of the OBC votes in the 2014 General Elections, there is consensus among a section of experts that the BJP-led NDA will be able to secure the majority of votes from this section in the upcoming Assembly Elections also.
With the lJP and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM-Secular) as its allies, the BJP is confident of getting the support of the Mahadalits, who account for 21 per cent of the State’s population. Needless to add, upper caste vote bank of the BJP has remained intact.
Certainly, the popularity of PM Modi is working in favour of the BJP alliance. The BJP is also in a position of taking credit for the development works done in Bihar during the seven years of the JDU-BJP Government. Needless to add, the decision of the Shiv Sena to contest Bihar Assembly Elections would not be able to have an adverse impact on the fortunes of the BJP-led NDA alliance, given the fact that the Sena does not have a base in the State and that it is notorious for its anti-migrant stand across the Hindi heartland States, especially Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
The results of the elections would indeed have a huge significance for the BJP. Though normally winning or losing in State Assembly Elections is not directly attributed to the functioning of the Union Government, given the fact that Modi has put his personal stake in the elections, the results would have a direct bearing on his Government. Victory for the BJP-led NDA in Bihar would allow him to vociferously pursue his developmental model in the country.
The Bihar Assembly Elections have also become important for the BJP to increase its numbers in the Rajya Sabha. This in turn would help the Modi Government in passing many key Bills which have been stuck in the House as the NDA does not have sufficient numbers there.
A win in the Bihar polls would also place the BJP on the top of all parties in Hindi States as it is already in power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Jharkhand and even in UP where it had won 71 seats in the Parliamentary Elections of 2014. Since in the next two years Assembly Elections are scheduled in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Puducherry and Uttar Pradesh, victory in Bihar elections would boost the BJP cadre morale and maximise the prospects of performing well in these States.
The writer is an ICSSR Doctoral Fellow at the School of Social Sciences and International Studies, Pondicherry University