A succession war is brewing in the DMK after Karunanidhi’s death, with both Stalin and Alagiri staking a claim to their father’s political legacy. This, along with the churning in the AIADMK after Jayalalithaa’s death, is bound to have an impact on the political landscape of Tamil Nadu in the run-up to 2019 lok Sabha polls, writes Kumar Chellappan
Tamil Nadu politics sans Muthuvel Karunanidhi is like the drama Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark. Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa (who predeceased him in 2016) were the central characters of the funny but serious political drama which was being staged in the Dravidian land for the past three decades. Besides these two lead actors, there were many comic, serious, and tragic characters that spiced up the storyline, making it a pleasant experience to watch, though the shadow-boxing staged on the sidelines crossed all boundaries of civility and decency most of the times.
There are a lot of similarities in the lives of Karunanidhi, the DMK patriarch, and Jayalalithaa, the monarch of the AIADMK, who were eternal rivals. There are no records of these two individuals exchanging pleasantries or speaking to each other. It is not known whether they had spoken to each other even once in their lifetime. But both respected Ramasamy Naicker, the founder of the Dravidian movement, and CN Annadurai, founder of the DMK. The similarities end there. Karunanidhi was a sworn rationalist as well as an atheist, while Jayalalithaa was a firm believer in God and was known to visit all kinds of temples.
It may seem strange, but both Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa bade adieu to their followers at a crucial juncture of Tamil Nadu politics. Karunanidhi would have completed 50 years as President of the DMK had he lived up to next August. He was elected as the party president in 1969, and since then, there was no one to challenge him. Those who dared to take him on ended up outside the party. MG Ramachandran, who was expelled from the DMK by Karunanidhi in 1972 to ensure complete control of his family over the party, launched the AIADMK and decimated the DMK. As long as MGR was alive, Karunanidhi was in political wilderness. He could regain the Chief Minister’s post, which he lost to MGR in 1976 only in 1989, after the demise of the latter in 1987.
Vaiyapuri Gopalsamy, the eternal rebel who was considered the only person who could stand up to Karunanidhi, was thrown out of the party in 1993 to facilitate the line of succession of MK Stalin as the next head of the DMK. Though Gopalsamy (who had changed his name to Vaiko for astrological reasons) had launched the MDMK, he did not reach anywhere and continues as a court jester of the DMK or the AIADMK, depending on the conditions prevailing at the time. Right now, Vaiko is in alliance with the DMK and has sworn to make Stalin the next CM of Tamil Nadu. The only glitch is that whoever has tied up with Vaiko or Thirumavalavan of the VCK, a Dalit outfit, has ended up as a loser.
Till the exit of Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi, Tamil Nadu politics was centred around them. With Jayalalithaa’s death, the AIADMK is in total disarray, and has disintegrated into three factions. The unit headed by CM Edappadi K Palaniswami and his deputy O Panneerselvam is the original AIADMK. The faction led by VK Sasikala, the jailed close aide of late Jayalalithaa, and her nephew TTV Dhinakaran had named his outfit, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), while V Divakaran, the brother of Sasikala, launched the Anna Dravidar Kazhagam.
What will be the political landscape of Tamil Nadu after the departure of Jayalalithaa and now Karunanidhiij The important thing to bear in mind is that other than the DMK and the AIADMK, no political party has any relevance in the State. The DMK came to power for the first time in 1967, defeating the mighty Congress. Since then, the DMK and the AIADMK have been ruling the State alternately. Both parties command a vote share of 30 to 35 per cent each.
The DMK and AIADMK had aligned with the Congress alternately over the years. Since 2004, the Congress is fully dependent on the DMK and opted to play second fiddle to the Karunanidhi family. Though the Congress chose to contest independently in the 2014 lok Sabha Elections, the result proved to be disastrous for the Grand Old Party. It not only lost all 39 seats it contested, but also the security deposit in all constituencies except one. The party, which has ruled India for more than six decades, could poll just 4.3 per cent votes in Tamil Nadu.
The Election Commission of India statistics show that the AIADMK and DMK have polled 35 per cent each on an average in most of the elections held so far. There are occasions like the Assembly Elections of 1996, 2001, and 2011 when one of the parties got mauled by the rivals. In 1996, the AIADMK could win just four seats, while the DMK and allies walked away with 221 seats. But the AIADMK had polled 27 per cent of the popular votes, while the DMK’s vote share shot up to 53.7 per cent.
In 2011, when the AIADMK uprooted the big guns of the DMK, Jayalalithaa’s party polled 38.4 per cent of the popular votes, while the DMK could poll just 22.4 per cent. “In Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections, the winner manages to poll about 10 per cent points more than the rival. Now that the AIADMK is split into three factions, it looks like an advantage DMK scenario,” said T Ramakrishnan, a political commentator based in Chennai.
The DMK has an advantage over the AIADMK in one respect. Though it had become a family-owned political outfit, Karunanidhi — through his speeches, writings, and discussions — had given it an aura of democracy. Since all the second and third level leaders are appointed from the list of family loyalists, there never was any major opposition or challenge to Karunanidhi. “For the past two years, Karunanidhi was not active and Stalin was the de facto chief of the party. The entire leadership of the DMK was fully in agreement with Karunanidhi when he told them about the elevation of his son as the working president. Hence, Stalin would not face any opposition or dissidence in the immediate future,” said N Kalyanasundaram, Tamil Nadu’s political chronicler.
The person who would have created problems for Stalin was MK Alagiri, the Madurai based elder son of Karunanidhi. But he was expelled from the party in 2013 and had been silent — until now. Distant thunders of a looming dissension can now be heard from Marina Beach, where the DMK patriarch has been laid to rest. Alagiri, popularly known as Anja Nenjan (braveheart), declared on Monday morning that the true loyalists and followers of Karunanidhi were with him. The announcement came immediately after the publication of a report by a pro-Stalin newspaper in Chennai that Alagiri would not be accommodated in the party till the 2019 lok Sabha Elections. It should be kept in mind that the Periarites-dominated Tamil Nadu media has always shown discrimination against Alagiri. Now, the game is on in the DMK; who wins, who loses, it is to be decided by the voters.
The DMK has, in fact, been out of power in Chennai since 2011 and it came out of the ruling UPA dispensation in 2013. Hence, the party is nowhere near the corridors of power. The immediate agenda before Stalin is to unseat the AIADMK Government and capture power in Tamil Nadu because without that, it won’t be possible for the Karunanidhi clan to preserve its commercial and business enterprises in the State.
Though the exit of star players from both teams around the same time offers a level playing field, the AIADMK’s organisational weaknesses have come to the forefront. The Sasikala faction, which was thrown out of the party, launched a new outfit and the result is for all to see. The AIADMK lost the bypoll held at RK Nagar, which was necessitated by the demise of Jayalalithaa. The constituency was the same where Jayalalithaa had registered a win with an impressive margin. TTV Dhinakaran of the AMMK won with a margin which baffled the AIADMK leadership. The DMK lost its security deposit. But there are reports that the victory of Dhinakaran was a fallout of “match-fixing” by the DMK and AMMK.
Politics in Tamil Nadu is in a fluid state. The Madras High Court is hearing a petition filed by 18 dissident MlAs of the AIADMK, asking the court to quash the order issued by the legislative Assembly Speaker in September 2017 disqualifying them from the membership of the House under the provisions of the Anti-Defection law. The verdict is expected anytime now. Then there is another bypoll round the corner caused by the death of AK Bose, an MlA belonging to the AIADMK.
The Thiruparankundram Assembly constituency has been a stronghold of the AIADMK for the past three decades. If the DMK or the AMMK manage to win the election, more MlAs and party leaders from the AIADMK could cross over to Dhinakaran’s side. In addition to these factors, what is causing worry to the leadership of the AIADMK and DMK is the entry of new players in Tamil Nadu politics, hitherto considered the monopoly turf of these two Dravidian giants. Rajinikanth, one of the reigning superstars of Tamil films, declared on the New Year’s Eve that he would soon launch a political party and is in the process of working out the modalities. Another superstar, Kamal Haasan, went one step further and launched his outfit, Makkal Needhi Maiam. Rajinikanth is yet to declare the name and programmes of his party.
Speaking to a cross-section of Tamil Nadu people, one gets the impression that these film actors may end up as also-rans. They may add glamour to the already crowded political landscape of the State. Though some of the popular actors like Sarathkumar and Vijayakanth had tested political waters by launching their own outfits, they could not make any impact in Tamil Nadu politics, despite commanding the respect and adoration of film viewers.
One should not get carried away by what’s being offered by news channels eulogising Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth. They have not created any impact in the State. Haasan lacks clarity and articulation. “I can’t understand what he is speaking. He does not make any sense at all,” said Sam Rajappa, veteran political commentator, adding that Rajinikanth, too, is destined to end up as a media creation.
The fact is that Tamil Nadu is a changed State now. Agreed, Annadurai, Karunanidhi, MGR, and Jayalalithaa were from the world of films. But the period of 1950s to 1980s has undergone a major change. The man on the street is more aware of his rights and the responsibilities of the Government. The AIADMK and DMK survived on freebies showered during elections in the form of fans, mixers, grinders, laptops, and colour TVs. But the electorate wants more than that.
Though there are two national parties in Tamil Nadu, the condition of the Congress and BJP is far from good. The Congress could not stand on its own and needs crutches in the form of the DMK or AIADMK. The BJP is plagued by group fights and egos. “Where is the BJP in Tamil Naduij” retorted Subramanian Swamy, who is a nominated MP of the Rajya Sabha. The State party leadership believes Narendra Modi and Amit Shah would make them win elections. According to a senior BJP leader, the party has no one to act as booth agents in more than half of the 60,000 polling booths in the State. In 2014, Amit Shah had told the party cadre to appoint at least 100 polling agents in each of the booths in the State.
The rest are fringe elements surviving on kangaroo courts. The exception is the two Communist parties. Though they are numerically weak, they have a dedicated team of activists who are willing to do anything for party leaders. That’s why both the CPI(M) and CPI are very much in demand during the elections. Both the Communist parties are expected to board the DMK bandwagon for the 2019 lok Sabha Elections as the leaders of these parties have sworn to finish off communalism represented by the BJP.
“But it is too early to predict what would happen in Tamil Nadu. You have to wait till the alliances are forged and that would happen only after the Election Commission of India announces the election schedule. In Tamil Nadu, it is the alliances and community combinations that decide the winners,” says BS Gnanadesikan, former president of the TNCC and a two-time Rajya Sabha member.
Though sworn atheist and rationalist, the DMK is careful while fielding candidates for elections. Though no communities could claim that the party represents their interests, the DMK consists of Mudaliyars, Vanniyars, Reddys, Vellalars, and Naickers (all designated as backward communities). The AIADMK, till the passing away of Jayalalithaa, was dominated by the Thevars of southern regions and the Gowndars of south west Tamil Nadu. The Thevars were the ones who stood by MGR, a Keralite, when he launched the AIADMK and they continued their association with Jayalalithaa. Sasikala and her family belong to the Thevar community. Palaniswami belongs to the Gounder sect and is the first leader from that community to become the CM of the State. All these years, the Gounders and Thevars voted together for the AIADMK.
Since Dhinakaran and Sasikala are not with the party, the Thevar vote bank of the AIADMK may go haywire. The Vanniyars, who felt alienated because they could not get their pound of flesh from the DMK as well as AIADMK dispensations, have a political outfit called the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). It is also a family-run enterprise since the founder of the party, S Ramadoss, and his son Anbumani Ramadoss call the shots. Ramadoss has only one dream in life and that is to make Anbumani the Chief Minister. But the Vanniayars are incapable of winning at least double-digit numbers of the 234 seats at stake on their own and are in search of alliance partners.
Though S Ramadoss has declared many times in the past that the PMK would have no truck with either the AIADMK or DMK, what one hears from Thailapuram Garden (the palatial residence of Ramadoss) is that the leader is willing to do business with the DMK.
The question being asked right now is who will be with whom for the 2019 lok Sabha Elections in Tamil Nadu. The Congress, the Trinamool Congress, and the Telugu Desam Party are all trying to woo the DMK. The BJP had given some signals that it was ready to hold hands with either the atheists or believers. Prime Minister Modi had called on Karunanidhi at his residence early this year and invited the patriarch to New Delhi to stay with him. The military honours accorded to the DMK patriarch in his last journey by the Union Government, too, have been noticed by the party cadre. This is in contrast to the treatment meted out by the Congress leadership to former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao when he breathed his last in 2004.
The DMK and AIADMK have a strong base in Tamil Nadu. All villages in the State boast of units of the two parties. There is no dearth of leadership in the DMK. Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi and Alagiri’s son Dhaya have already established their presence in the political skyline of Tamil Nadu. Though there are no popular stars in the AIADMK, if the party leadership presents a façade of unity, it will be difficult for others to pose a problem for the two parties.
The seventh-day ceremony for Karunanidhi was marked by Alagiri’s outbursts. “Yes, I feel insulted and humiliated because I was sidelined. The Tricolour with which Kalaignar’s body was draped should have been handed over to me. The IAS officer and others were aware of this,” Alagiri reportedly told his close confidants. “Well, it is another evidence of Stalin being controlled by his wife Durga, son Udhayanidhi, and son-in-law Sabareesan. Stalin cannot take the DMK forward without enlisting the cooperation of Alagiri, who is a force to reckon with in Tamil Nadu. It is strange that the Tamil Nadu media does not understand this,” said C Rajasekharan, a former Congress leader-turned political commentator.
Tamil Nadu politics has mostly been an extension of cinema and drama, and that culture is yet to die. It will take some more time for the veil of suspense to lift. Till then, we have to bear with the dialogues delivered by the central characters, the villains, and the comedians.