Heading into the next match the United States are level on points with the group leaders Germany but behind on goal differential.
If the US want to progress as group winners to avoid Belgium in the knockout stages, they need to beat Germany.
A draw against Germany, however, would still be enough to see the United States into the knockout stages in second place.
Even a defeat against Germany could still allow the United States to progress, though then they’re leaving their fortunes entirely in the hands of Portugal and Ghana.
If Portugal and Ghana draw, the United States will progress in second place.
If Ghana win, they’d progress if they win by two goals or more, or win by a single goal and the US lost by more than one goal.
If the United States and Ghana end up level on goal differential, it would come down to who scored the most goals overall. If they were deadlocked still, the United States would progress as they’ve already beaten Ghana in the group stages.
If Portugal win, they’d need to overturn an even bigger goal differential deficit to progress ahead of the United States.
Their goal differential heading into the final slate of games is minus-4, while the United States’ is plus-1. That’s a fairly big final swing Portugal require. If they pull it back level, it would again go down to who scored the most goals in the group stages overall. Still deadlockedIJ They’d end up drawing lots for progression — picking a name out of a hat, essentially.