The Sino Taiwanese tension is largely the result of the internal political situation of China where Xi is scheduled to be elected as the top leader of China for another term in October this year.
America, India and all the major countries of the world have already conceded the One China Policy whereby Taiwan, Hong Kong and other parts in the Chinese vicinity are part of China and it has every right to control them. This is the principled stand of the world. In practice, however, they throw spanners on the path of China and do not allow her to implement this policy. They want to maintain status quo.
Therefore, they create trouble as and when China and its leadership appear vulnerable. The sudden visit of Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taiwan was aimed to exploit this Chinese vulnerability and provoke it to commit mistake.
China fell into the net like an innocent pigeon. It started encircling Taiwan and doing mock naval drill in the straits of Taiwan. All this costs heavily without bearing any fruitful result because, in all probability, there would be no real fight between China and Taiwan. This show of strength will continue for some time, possibly up to November this year. Thereafter, the whole situation would fizzle out in due course of time. By then, Xi would be able to convince the Chinese people that he won’t be browbeaten by American mischief and would have got his leadership endorsed by the Chinese people.
The Sino Indian tension would also ease by then as China has failed to achieve anything meaningful out of this standoff. On the contrary, it has made India reinforce and rejuvenate her military capability on the border with China. India is now much better prepared to take on China than it was in 2020.
The standoff has positively asserted the Indian leadership world over and it is heard more effectively than before. India has learnt to live with the emergence of China as a superpower. China needs to learn and accept the growing significance of India globally, whether she likes it or not. Ground realities leave no room for wishful thinking
India has already called the bluff of China for the last two years which hasn’t dared to launch a full-fledged military action against India. And it is not likely to go for it in near future either. China has sent a well-equipped spy ship to the Sri Lankan port Humbantota to frighten India so that it doesn’t take up the cause of Taiwan. This is an old Chinese defence tactic to browbeat its adversary by blatant display of military strength . But China is a fool not to realise the Indian military strength and its determination to take on her, come what may.
Chinese fighter planes are violating the Taiwanese air space and the fighter planes of Taiwan are chasing them away everytime. This is simply a show of strength and China does not have the guts to attack Taiwan. The Taiwanese would fight tooth and nail for preserving their independence and their democratic form of government. America, NATO countries and other democratic nations will support Taiwan . Australia and Japan have openly supported Taiwan against China. India is watching the entire development with crossed fingers. Hence, war is neither easy nor intended on the part of China. It is nursing the wounded sentiments of the Chinese people in the wake of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan and dressing up the image of Xi which has been rubbed the wrong way by this visit.
The writer is former Registrar, Vinoba Bhave University, Hazaribag and the views expressed in the article are his own.