Assuming if nations were to act rationally in any war scenario, it is likely that they would avoid resorting to nuclear ICBMs, Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, armed with nuclear warheads. Utilising ICBM with ordinary ammunition makes close to zero economic sense, for hundreds of this species of incredibly expensive ICBMs would not be able to destroy even a singular metropolis.
If any of the World’s Great Powers like Russia, the USA and China decided to wage a nuclear war, it would be a one way ticket to MAD, ‘Mutually Agreed Destruction’. Nuclear launch codes would be entered, causing the missile silos to open and the missile booster rockets to fire, launching them into the deep azure sky. After reaching their apogee, the missile would turn and re-enter at supersonic speeds, thereby being immune to any intercepting technology. Within half-an-hour, several megacities would have fallen. The ensuing retaliation and counter-retaliation would ensure an artificially created extinction event. The last surviving commander would be dead before he managed to push the launch button.
As far as classical war is concerned, most geographical regions of the world are safe due to their geographical positions and economic status. The expansive Pacific Ocean is too vast of a natural barrier for China and Russia to threaten North America and Latin America. The U.S. Naval Base at Santa Rita, the Andersen Air Force Base at Yigo on Guam and the Joint Base Pearl Harbour- Hickam in Hawai, would be able to repel any naval threat in the Mid-Pacific. The USA places such a high premium on the Pacific that it has positioned 60% of its naval fleets in the region. Moreover, China and Russia have no refuelling bases for their Airforces in the region, so even if a handful of aircrafts were to pose a proximate threat, they would be shot down with medium range Surface-to-Air missiles.
The Atlantic is the home turf of NATO, which encircles the whole ocean with the exception of Cuba. A repeat of the Cuban Crisis of 1962 is not possible. In the area, even China could merely manage to install only a listening post with no military capability. If Cuba was to actively enable any kind of military hostilities against the USA, the Americans would not shy away from taking rightful and necessary military action against Cuba as well as other hostile countries.
The Mediterranean Sea is dominated by the four NATO nations: Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey. Annexed by Russia in 2014, the only presence that Russia boasts in the region is Crimea, formerly a part of Ukraine. Furthermore, the only logistical link between mainland Russia and Crimea is a fragile bridge that can be easily targeted to disrupt the movement of Russia’s integral military resources.
Africa and Latin America are relatively insignificant in the grander scheme of things as far as war is concerned.
Antarctica is simply a cold wasteland, inhabited by a few researchers and otherwise by Penguins. Similarly the Arctic Ocean and the North Polar region is of no strategic and military relevance as it is marked only by deep ice-sheets, polar bears, walruses and seals.
With that said, we are left with only two potential theatres of war, the Indian Ocean and the West Pacific. The two most relevant and affected countries would consequently prove to be India and China. The ensuing formation of power blocs could possibly lead to war.
Which is why at present, agreements like the Quad, I2U2, NATO Plus and tactical steps, including expansion and establishment of military bases, become not just topics of concern and discussion, but also a tangible necessity.
Pranjal Pandey is a lawyer by profession and Ajay is a technocrat turned bureaucrat.