President Xi Jinping, the most powerful leader of China after Mao Zedong, laid out his future plan for China in the next thirty years starting with the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-25) period while addressing the leading cadre of the Communist Party of China on Monday. He emphasized on four points as reported by the Hong Kong based Chinese mouthpiece, South China Morning Post. He said that “time and momentum are on China’s side”. Secondly, he underlined the implementation of new development philosophy in the new development phase of the country. Thirdly, he warned his countrymen of dangers lurking in the wings on the path of Chinese ambitions and finally building a modern socialist society full of affluence and prosperity.
Xi’s assertions are statement of a leader who is not apologetic of creating a mess of the deadly Corona virus, even if we do not call it the Chinese virus out of diplomatic courtesy. He is literally laughing at the miseries of the people of the world and has the audacity to tell that it was an opportune moment to make the hay. New development philosophy is really needed for China because it has lost the faith of the people all over the world and it would have serious ramifications on her economy. What has saved China so far is the vested business interest of capitalists in China cutting across nations. Economic leverage that China enjoys has saved the day for it. But this cannot last long as the upsurge of nationalist sentiment would overpower this economic leverage and force the dollar hungry capitalists to fall in line with the nationalist sentiments of their countries.
Xi Jinping has correctly realized the potential threat which China has created for itself because of its continued belligerence and hegemonic advances in its vicinity which is thoroughly illegal and uncalled for. The Covid trauma would pass off like all other maladies that afflicted the world in the past. The West led by America would definitely make a powerful alliance against China thereafter which would be highly detrimental to Chinese interests. The days of support for One China Policy are over. The process has already started with Japan abandoning her policy of peaceful economic growth. It has passed a huge defence budget with a fifteen year plan to enhance its defence capabilities specially aimed against China. Australia has refused to be browbeaten by China and the Chinese economic blockade of Australian goods and minerals is equally hurting China, if not more. Four Eyes Group, which shares logistics, is going to be joined by Japan, which would make it extremely strong in terms of information sharing because of strategic location of Japan in the Pacific with a close proximity to China. The Chinese war of attrition with India is on and China is not likely to come out of it without losing some sheen.
The Chinese spokespersons have done their best to buy trouble for China by putting their foot in their mouth time and again. Their tall talks would not lead them anywhere. The political commentary published in Mandarin in China clearly reflect their nervousness. These articles speak about “managing” America and India. It clearly means that both Covid and misadventure on the Indian border have landed them in a soup they had not anticipated. Still, the language of these articles is lewd and loud.
Xi Jinping is facing serious problems at home. Jack Ma is not only critical of Xi, but his criticism of economic policy has possibly landed him in trouble as he has not been seen for the last two months since he spoke his mind. Similarly, a big property dealer is missing for quite some time after he criticized govt. policy. Covid has broken the supply chain of China and it cannot be substituted by domestic demands. No developmental model can be successful for China without the active participation of the western economy.
Therefore, China is in a bad condition and Xi’s address is simply to lift the sagging morale of the people which is being dubbed by Chinese commentators as a sign of confidence and conviction. If it was so, there was no need to speak of a new phase and model of development. The western economies would gradually close their doors for China. They would not enter into any defence deal of highly advanced fighter planes and weapons for the fear of reverse engineering.
Hence, the Chinese plan cannot be executed as Xi has planned. The international community is wary of this country and there is no love and trust that has not been lost between China and the world. The Chinese economy is slowing down too. There is growing unemployment and restlessness in the youth as per the reports filtering out of China. These problems are difficult to handle and the spirited address of Xi would not suffice.
The author is the Registrar of Vinoba Bhave University in Hazaribag. The views expressed by the author are his own.