The Chinese President Xi Jinping recently visited Russia and the two leaders Xi Jinping and Putin had several rounds of one to one meeting and a joint statement was issued. Naturally, it covered the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Xi Jinping made a prescription for an early end of the conflict. The second issue that was referred to in the joint statement was Quad which consists of America, Australia, UK and India which aims to maintain a balance of power in the Indo- Pacific region. The statement criticised Quad as a close and exclusive alliance.
China claims control over South China Sea which is a vast expanse of ninety six lakh square kilometres of the Pacific Ocean where China has artificially made more than two hundred islands and has deployed powerful weapons there. The whole region is rich in mines, minerals natural gas etc. and the maritime trade done through it is of critical importance. The rest of the world contests this Chinese claim and Quad aims to contain the expansion of Chinese influence in the region.
The Chinese prescription for peace in Ukraine is not likely to cut much ice as the America led west won't allow China to walk away with the laurels of a successful arbitrator of peace and further enhance its stature globally. The reference to Quad is disturbing for India because it is for the first time that Russia has joined China in crticising Quad in writing. Russia is an old, time-tested and the most valuable ally of India. Its growing inclination, rather dependence on China as a junior partner is definitely a bad omen for India. This dependence might prove to be temporary and Russia could regain its pre Ukraine conflict stature after the Ukraine conflict is over.
The growing proximity of China and Russia would lead to the formation of a powerful military alliance that would challenge the West. India would be left to fend for itself as it has serious boundary disputes with China. The Russia China proximity is, therefore, a cause of concern for India. It is also a cause of grave concern for the West as it is only Russia which has nuclear parity with America led NATO.
Who is responsible for this mess? Definitely America, whose sanctions have left no option to Russia but to turn to China for all kinds of help. China has so far refrained from giving any meaningful and effective weapon systems to Russia which has kept the Ukraine conflict confined to the present level. The day China decides to supply Russia advanced weapon systems and logistic support, the whole texture of the conflict would change and it would further erode the sheen of American hegemony. The West would be forced to either upscale the conflict or meekly surrender to the marching strides of Chinese hegemony. Such a situation would be a cliffhanger for India and a balance of strategic interests would be very hard to achieve.
However, it won't be easy for China to take such a course of action as its economic interests are closely interwined with the West. There could be no sudden disconnect. Further, this joint statement might alert America to recalibrate its policy vis-a-vis the Ukraine conflict. It is difficult to say how things would unfold but it would be a testing time for the Indian diplomacy. India cannot trust America and the West as a faithful ally going by their past records. At present, the increasing incidents of Khalistani vandalism in America, UK and Canada are symptomatic of a malady which is more deep and profound than meets the eye.
The fast changing situation demands a fresh look to our defence preparedness. India has bought a large number of arms, ammunition and weapon systems from Russia. Their repair, maintenance and spare parts need Russian support. The capacity of Russia to do so has been greatly depleted due to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. It is good that India has embarked upon the policy of self-reliance in matters of defence requirements and diversified its sources of procurement. Of late, India has bought many weapon systems from America, UK and France. This has reduced our dependence on Russia. But India should be watchful as America and her allies are known for strangulating their buyers in the name of sanctions when they have a clash of interests. The saving grace for India is its importance as a member of BRICS which finds mention in the joint statement.
Russia, too, would try its best to keep India strong to balance the increasing influence of China in the region.
The writer is a noted academician and political commentator. Views Expressed are personal.