Limitations of Nitish Kumar would be exposed when he would probe support for his candidature for Prime Ministership, for the canvas of national politics is quite different than that of Bihar. It is true that he has outsmarted his rivals time and again and has proved his indispensability to RJD and BJP, but it is almost impossible to repeat the feat at national level.
There are several contenders for the slot of combined opposition candidate for Prime Ministership. The foremost among them is Rahul Gandhi. Congress is still the only national party in the opposition and has the largest number of MPs. Also, it still got nineteen and half percent votes in the last Lok Sabha elections. The problem is Rahul is neither capable nor willing to take this onerous responsibility. Sonia Gandhi is not ready to pass on the baton to anyone else in the party. Mamta has lost her credibility because of the way she behaved during the Presidential and Vice Presidential election. But she, too, would claim this position and Saugat Roy swiftly reacted to the veiled claim of Nitish Kumar. Akhilesh Yadav would also lay his claim for this position . So, Nitish has to go a long way before he emerges as an undisputed challenger to his bete noire Narendra Modi.
Again, is this brouhaha after Nitish shifted his alliance from NDA to Mahagathbandhan justified? Not at all, then why this hullabaloo? This is because it has provided a ray of hope to the opposition that even Modi-Shah combine can be outmaneuvered and their political moves can be pre-empted.
The foremost challenge before Nitish is to halt the dwindling graph of his party and his personal charisma. This is an attempt to stem this rot and also a last attempt to pursue his long-term dream of Prime Ministership. But this work is going to be very difficult because RJD would not give the desired political space to JDU,the way BJP did. So,the conflict of interest will always be there. Nitish would have to work his way out of this difficult situation.
Now the question is why did the BJP allow this to happen .It is true that Nitish is a Machiavelian politician and his closest aides do not know what his next move would be. So BJP was taken by surprise by Nitish's u-turn. It also appears that BJP decided to take chances with Nitish with the conviction that he will not change sides. And if he does so, which he did, BJP would wage the battle in Bihar singlehandedly. This was rather a poor judgment on the part of those who were in charge of the state.
It is true that BJP has come a long way since the formation of NDA more than two decades ago. Now BJP will have to go solo. Bihar is different from Maharashtra and Punjab where it had Shiv Sena and Akali Dal as its political ally. In Bihar, Nitish was indispensable for BJP as the Ram Janmbhoomi Andolan did not bring dividends in the state. So, BJP is in a tight spot. Now BJP would have to woo the non- yadav and non- kurmi OBCs in the state to expand its electoral base. Alternatively, it will have to win back Nitish to safeguard its electoral fortune in Bihar. The road to Delhi goes via Patna and Lucknow.
Therefore, BJP cannot and shouldn't take the changed situation lightly. It will have to come out with a well thought out plan to regain the lost ground.
The writer is former Registrar, Vinoba Bhave University, Hazaribag and the views expressed in the article are his own.