With the Congress overthrowing the BJP in Karnataka, guessing games have begun over the possibility and timing of holding mid-term Assembly elections in Jharkhand.
Political watchers pointed out that the Congress may swiftly go for dissolving the House — most likely at the next Cabinet meeting — and pave the way for holding elections by June-end. It will look to exploit the feel good factor generated after the Karnataka elections, instead of seeking extension to President’s Rule.
Chief Electoral Officer PK Jajoria’s Wednesday visit to Delhi added strength to the speculation. “The Chief Electoral Officer rushed on the urgent call of the Election Commission,” said a source in his office.
Jajoria, however, said the EC had convened a meeting to discuss the ongoing revision of electoral rolls. “It is premature to assume that the EC discussed preparedness of holding elections when the House is still be dissolved,” he told The Pioneer.
The visit of Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde on May 14 is also being viewed as a part of the Centre taking stock for elections. The commission needs at least 45 days to hold elections.
Senior BJP leader Saryu Roy also said the Centre should not seek extension of President’s Rule if the assurance of Finance Minister P Chidambaram made on the floor of the House carries any weight.
Replying to questions and demands on accounts and related issues in Rajya Sabha, Chidambaram had, in March, said the Government wants to keep the State under President’s Rule for “as short a period as possible”. A Congress leader also pointed out that the timing of the Centre’s move to dissolve the House, if it at all takes place soon, is perfect.
The Congress-led Central Government would, at least, dissolve the Assembly and put the ball in the Election Commission’s court so it escapes Opposition’s criticism of ruling State by proxy.
A senior official in the Election Commission in Delhi said the EC could study the feasibility of holding elections only once Jharkhand Assembly is dissolved and the Government makes a recommendation.
“As it is, we are not going to shore up our poll prospects. leader of Opposition Rajendra Prasad Singh has criticised the poor performance of officials under the President’s Rule. So it is better we face the elections,” pointed out a senior Congress leader.
Opposition parties, including the BJP and JVM, have already upped the ante and planned agitations if the Centre does not dissolve the House and hold elections by July 18, the day President’s Rule comes to an end in Jharkhand.
A BJP leader, however, said the Congress would certainly seek extension of President’s Rule. “The Centre would have had to dissolve Assembly after March, as there was virtually no possibility of Government formation. Still, it waited so long to time the move strategically, so EC should hold elections in Jharkhand along with other States in October-November,” he pointed out.
The factor which goes against holding elections by June-end is onset of monsoon, which normally hits Jharkhand by middle of June, last year’s date being June 19. But then, rains do not create havoc in Jharkhand as in Bihar.
“So, if EC says elections can’t be held in June, the Congress Government will always wash its hand of Opposition criticism and rule the State by proxy till October-November,” pointed out a senior official.
There is yet another factor, which might delay elections. A section of the Congress cautioned that the party high command should not bank on feel good factor generated after the Karnataka results. “Hadn’t the BJP faced a rout in 2005 due to such a feel good factorIJ” a leader recalled.
Interestingly, Congress State president Pradeep Balmuchu said there is still some possibility of Government formation before the Cabinet takes a final call. ”There is many a slip between cup and lip,” he mused.
A section of Congress optimists — including Geetashree Oraon, frontrunner for the State unit chief’s post — believed the party needs to form a Government to consolidate its position in the State.