They want to bury caste, tribal, non-tribal issues to consolidate Hindutva votes
With Amit Shah arriving here on his maiden visit on Sunday, the party leaders, who believe that the saffron brigade stands a fair chance to achieve ‘Mission 42 plus’, are hopeful that the BJP boss will clear air over who leads the electoral battle in the forthcoming Assembly elections in Jharkhand.
Though the BJP is euphoric over entry of a large number of leaders from other parties, particularly the JVM, which had inflicted a heavy damage to the BJP in the 2009 elections, the party leadership needs to keep its own house in order and work out a plan to manage the ticket hopefuls.
Maintaining that the BJP should play its card well, a senior party leader confided that though the party will mainly bank on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma to get a majority in the State, but the party needs a local face in the Assembly elections. Also, the party leadership should work out a formula to keep ‘Hindutva’ vote bank intact and dump the issue of tribal-non-tribal Chief Minister.
Pointed out a BJP leader, “Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emerged as a brand ambassador for nationalism, giving a body blow to the vote bank politics of his rivals, who mainly used to polarise the minority votes in order to survive. But the tribal-non-tribal Chief Minister issue, being raked up by some leaders, is a different brand of divisive politics, which threatened to make a dent in the ‘Hindutva’ vote bank.”
“If the tribals get a message that the BJP will dump them once they get a majority, they may switch over to the grand alliance which is being put in place by the BJP rivals. Also, the Scheduled Castes, who have voted for the BJP in the lok Sabha elections may feel deprived if our leaders rake up such issues,” he pointed out.
Notably, the RSS created a social capital by consolidating its base in tribal areas to counter Christian missionaries. Any move to give a raw deal to tribals might ultimately weaken the RSS foothold in Jharkhand.
“So, on the face, there might be wave in favour of the BJP, but the insiders’ role is likely to play spoilsport in the elections. The party leadership needs to analyse these factors and take a call to make corrective steps before they become a liability,” pointed out another party leader.
Some may cite example of Chhattisgarh with 30.6 per cent tribal population and still having a non-tribal Chief Minister whereas Jharkhand has only 26.2 per cent tribals. But the basic difference is that the tribals in Chhattisgarh are concentrated in three districts of Bastar, Jashpur and Dantewada while tribals inhabit most of the districts in Jharkhand and influence the voting pattern.
Also, the BJP has not been able to get a strong foothold in Santhal Pargana, a JMM’s pocket borough. Already, the ruling JMM has begun playing the tribal card aggressively. Again, among non-tribals also, there are two groups — one who have migrated from Bihar and other States and those who are natives called moolvasis. The natives share several common concerns with the tribals and do not gel with Biharis’.
“It is misnomer to conclude that the projection of a non-tribal leader will get majority non-tribal votes for the BJP. So, the best option for the BJP will be to go for a tribal face who is equally acceptable among non-tribals too,” pointed out a poll analyst.
“Overall, the general perception amid emerging political scenario is that the BJP will get 50 plus seats if it plays its card well, like projecting an all acceptable leader and selecting right candidates ahead of the elections,” pointed out Harishwar Dayal, associated with various election studies.
Incidentally, the BJP had not projected a face in the 2005 and 2009 Assembly elections and the fractured result was for everyone to see. Also, the recent electoral trend shows that the people vote in the Assembly elections for the leader who will guide them and becomes Chief Minister.
“The time for collective leadership, ostensibly a device to keep all the contenders in good humour ahead of elections is over. We have got the results of empowering Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhra Raje and Raman Singh as a regional satrap. Now, it is time that the central leadership takes a call in case of Jharkhand too,” pointed out a senior BJP leader, requesting anonymity.
Incidentally, the BJP has to fight strong regional leaders like Shibu Soren, Babulal Marandi and Sudesh Mahto in Jharkhand, which has been springing up fractured mandate since its creation with so many regional players in the ring.
“The result of by-elections in Bihar should be an eye opener, where again there is no clarity on the leadership issue,” pointed out a senior BJP leader. The BJP’s cohesive face will also help the party to counter the ‘Maha gathbandhan’ of the rivals.
“Though the grand alliance, being worked out by the ruling parties may appear socially formidable on paper, but it will make the BJP equally strong. People no longer want a ‘khichdi sarkar’. They want a stable and majority Government which only the BJP will offer,” said senior BJP leader Saryu Roy.